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At Statistical Look at the Potentially Deadly Duo of Leigh Bodden and Devin McCourty

Even since before the 2010 NFL season came to a close, I've been extremely anxious to see what a cornerback pair of Leigh Bodden and Devin McCourty would look like together.  Both have similar builds, McCourty has the advantage in ball skills and athleticism, and Bodden has the advantage in experience and to a slight extent physicality, although both players are very capable as run defenders and in press coverage.

In 2009, Leigh Bodden had the best coverage season for a Patriots cornerback since Asante Samuel in 2007, and the best overall season for a Patriots cornerback since Ty Law in 2003 (including press, zone, and run support).  Before I became the managing editor of Pats Pulpit, I declared Leigh Bodden "the closest thing the Patriots have had to Ty Law since, well, Ty Law."

Then, the Patriots went out and drafted Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty.  While most didn't expect McCourty to be the player he ended up being his rookie season, the thought of a Bodden-McCourty-Butler trio was still a pretty tantalizing thought.  Then, however, Leigh Bodden went down for the season with a rotator cuff injury in the preseason.  Patriots fans never really got to see the two play together.

You know how the rest of the story went.  Devin McCourty turned into a Pro Bowl, shutdown corner his rookie season amazing those who even had the highest expectations for the former Rutgers star.  While people were initially excited for Bodden's return, those expectations were tempered a bit when the team drafted former Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling with the 33rd overall pick in April's Draft.  Ever since that draft selection, Leigh Bodden has become somewhat of a forgotten commodity.

Read the rest after the jump, including a statistical look at Bodden and McCourty!

Star-divide

In my opinion, Bodden's career with the Patriots is far from over.  Off the top, he's still only 29 and has three years remaining on his deal.  He will only be 32 when his current deal expires.  While Ras-I Dowling may pass Bodden on the depth chart by the end of Bodden's contract, it very likely won't be in the next two seasons.  If Bodden is still the better player, he will see the field as his contract is relatively reasonable for a player of his skill. Next, Leigh Bodden is only coming off of a rotator cuff injury - it could be worse for a cornerback.  As long as he has stayed in shape, his legs won't be much older than they were during his solid 2009 campaign.

And going back to his 2009 campaign, lets look at some of his stats: according to ProFootballFocus.com:

Leigh Bodden:876 snaps (88.6%), Thrown at: 92 times, Completions: 46 (50%), 4 touchdowns allowed, 5 interceptions, 18 passes defensed, 59.7 QB Rating


Now, lets take a look at Devin McCourty's stats:

Devin McCourty: 1121 snaps (95.6%), Thrown at 104 times, 58 completions, 5 touchdowns allowed, 7 interceptions, 17 passes defended, 61.1 QB rating

Those are some truly impressive numbers for both players.  And surprisingly, they're really similar (especially when considering the two interceptions that Bodden had called back).  Now, we don't know for sure if Leigh Bodden will be the same player he was in 2011 that he was in 2009.  In fact, it's not even a 100% guarantee that he will make the roster and be a starter.  If Bill Belichick thinks a player such as Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, or even Darius Butler is a better option, possibly due to salary cap reasons, Bodden could be shown the door.  I don't expect this to happen.  I expect Bodden to be a really good player for the Patriots next season, and in 2012 and beyond as well.

And just to think, if Bodden continues to show up and McCourty progresses as he should, the Patriots really will have a "pick your poison" type of mentality when it comes to the cornerback position, especially if a guy like Darius Butler can progress to his potential as a slot cornerback.

Poll
Will Leigh Bodden be starting at cornerback accross Devin McCourty in 2011?
Yes
644 votes
No
46 votes

690 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 14 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I'm really excited about our secondary this year.

Richard pointed out that we have 2 Outside Guys in Arrington and Dowling, 2 inside/slot guys in Butler and Wilhite, and 2 do-everything guys in McCourty and Bodden.

If Butler turns into a slot specialist and can shut down the speedy guy, and Dowling is solid on the big, fast receivers outside, it really frees McCourty and Bodden up for whoever is left.

We could have a great secondary with Bodden opposite McCourty, but we could have an elite secondary if Dowling and Butler can excel in specialty roles. Add to that Page or McGowan stopping the speedy tight-ends, and who do you throw to? Oh yeah, the RB that Guyton picked up.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 7, 2011 5:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah not only do we have a great secondary, on paper.

As you alluded to we also have good coverage linebackers. Guyton to me is underrated in this respect (although perhaps not underrated by the Pulpit faithful, just everyone else).

by UtopianAverage on Jul 7, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guyton? If anything he's overrated.

He was constantly exploited in coverage last season. But his statistics were good in 2010 so people forget that he’s inconsistent at best.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Jul 7, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guyton is an undrafted rookie free agent

who has made a name for himself here as a very effective role player.

I’m not saying the kids a star. But how many people do you think that aren’t Patriots fans have ever heard of him ?

Maybe he’s overrated by Patriots fans, or by myself I’ll give you that.

In any case the kid is probably average at best against the run, but effective in coverage and has a nose for the big play. Having a guy who can make clutch plays is important. Mayo might be the 1st or 2nd most talented player on our defense but he hasn’t made the kind of “big plays” in the last 3 years that Guyton made last year alone. I’m not saying Guyton is better than Mayo, I’m just saying both kinds of players are important to have. Mayo is an extremely consistent all-pro tackling machine, but he needs to make more big plays. Guyton is a very inexpensive and effective role-player who is inconsistent in some aspects of his game but can get sacks, picks, forced fumbles, and score defensive touchdowns.

by UtopianAverage on Jul 7, 2011 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree.

Guyton’s not an elite ILB. I don’t think he ever will be. That said, he’s a perfect complement to Brandon Spikes because his strengths are Spikes’ weaknesses. He’s not great at covering, but he’s far from the worst. Belichick started using Guyton on more delayed blitzes this past season to utilize his speed and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more Guyton rushes in the future. He has a solid skill set- not great, but solid. He’s excellent for what he’s being paid.

by Richard Hill on Jul 7, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with everything you're said

My point is that being inconsistent at his job is an Achilles’s heel of our defense, given that he’s usually being asked to cover a tight end or running back that the QB is likely to check down to when pressured. In some ways that’s the most important coverage assignment. Guyton does appear to have the big play gene that Mayo doesn’t (yet) but his skills are maybe better utilized in some kind of linebacker-ballhawk role than in man coverage on 3rd down.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Jul 7, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not a big Jonathan Wilhite supporter. He has looked really bad on a number of plays. I have way more hope for Darius Butler than I do for Jonathan.

by Patriots12 on Jul 7, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Me too.

I only mentioned him as depth.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 7, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you have McCourty’s stats for the second half of the season? He definitely had a few problems at first, and I feel like his last 8 games are a better indication of his ability than the season as a whole.

by Sciz on Jul 8, 2011 12:51 AM EDT reply actions  

I can't look at PFF stats, so NFL network stats:

First eight games:
37 tackles / 33 solo – 7 PD, 2 INTs (37 Yds / 37 Long – 0 TDs), 0 Sacks, 0 FF

Second eight games:
45 tackles / 40 solo – 10 PD, 5 INTs (73 Yds / 50 Long – 0 TDs), 1 Sack, 2 FF

Don’t know the targeted numbers.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 8, 2011 8:55 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm guessing he was thrown at less

But I don’t have any numbers either.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Jul 8, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd guess so, too, but I'd just have to speculate.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Jul 8, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

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