Projecting a Patriots 53 Man Roster: Version 2.0
by Greg Knopping on Aug 22, 2011 5:00 PM EDT
in Opinion/Analysis
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PrintMy second attempt at projecting what the Patriots 53 man roster may look like:
QB (3): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett
Thoughts: No changes from last time, as this group will likely be as-is come the regular season.
RB (5): BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk (PUP)
Thoughts: No changes here. Sammy Morris could replace Shane Vereen if Vereen's injury is serious enough to land him on injured reserve.
LAST IN: SAMMY MORRIS - Morris gets the final spot due to his veteran presence and his role on special teams. He also still sees time as a fullback. He's not flashy, but he is a veteran who Bill Belichick trusts and respects enough to give him a roster spot.
WR (6): Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco, Taylor Price, Julian Edelman, Matt Slater, Brandon Tate (IR)
Thoughts: Brandon Tate hasn't practiced since the first week of camp, and it looks like his injury could be serious. I don't think the Patriots will straight-up release Tate, but a trip to injured reserve wouldn't surprise me the least.
TE (3): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Will Yeatman
Thoughts: The change here is swapping Will Yeatman for Lee Smith. When attending training camp, I felt that Lee Smith looked tremendous, and was seriously outplaying Yeatman. However, over the last week, it looks as if Yeatman has passed Smith on the depth chart.
OT (4): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Steve Maneri
Thoughts: Steve Maneri replaces Mark LeVoir, who was released last week. Maneri has looked solid enough in the preseason to warrant keeping around.
OG/C (4): Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell, Marcus Cannon (PUP)
Thoughts: Again, there are no changes here as I still don't have Rich Ohrnberger making the roster. I think that Bill Belichick is comfortable with having just eight lineman on the roster, as he has done in the past. However, if Belichick keeps a 9th, Ohrnberger could be that player.
The defensive side of the ball after the jump!
DT/DE (6): Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, Kyle Love, Myron Pryor, Mike Wright, Ron Brace (PUP), Brandon Deaderick (IR)
Thoughts: Same group as last week. I have Wright sticking, although he could land on injured reserve. Brace and Deaderick hang around on reserve lists. Darryl Richard, Landon Cohen, Gerard Warren, and Kade Weston all have a chance to make the roster.
DE/LB (4): Jermaine Cunningham, Rob Ninkovich, Andre Carter, Mark Anderson
Thoughts: My big surprise cut here is Eric Moore. Remember 2010, when Marques Murrell started the entire preseason at outside linebacker then was promptly released before the start of the season? I like Eric Moore, but with Jermaine Cunningham slated to be the top left ends on 1st and 2nd down, and my personal belief that Andre Carter will stick as the starting right end, I'm not sure if there's a defined role for Moore on the roster.
LB (5): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Gary Guyton, Dane Fletcher, Tracy White
Thoughts: No changes from last week. Hopefully, Spikes and Fletcher get back on the field soon.
CB (5): Devin McCourty, Leigh Bodden, Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, Jonathan Wilhite
Thoughts: In this projection, I'm swapping Wilhite for Darius Butler. Last week, Wilhite was my last out. This week, I have him making the squad. Darius Butler has gotten plenty of snaps in the first two preseason games, and I'm sure the coaching staff is taking a long, hard look at what he has to offer the team. Wilhite has looked generally solid and played well as the slot cornerback in 2010. That could give him the slight edge, even if it is to the moans and groans of many Patriots fans.
S (5): Pat Chung, Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Sergio Brown, James Ihedigbo
Thoughts: I believe Bret Lockett had a chance to stick as a special teams player before he went down with injury against the Bucs. To replace him, the team signed former Jet James Ihedigbo. Ihedigbo isn't a lock to make the roster, but I think his special teams prowess gives him a chance. If the team keeps a fifth safety, the spot could also go to Josh Barrett.
Specialists (3): Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Matt Katula
Thoughts: Chris Koepplin has a chance to stick as a kickoff specialist, although he may just be handling kickoff duties to keep Gostkowski's leg fresh. Matt Katula has looked shaky, and could be replaced if he doesn't settle down.
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Brandon Tate is back at practice, btw
IR less likely in his case than, say, Shane Vereen. Not sure off the top of my head what Vereen’s injury is or if the specifics of it had been reported.
Deep in enemy territory
Forget where I read it, but I remember thinking it wasn’t much more than an high ankle sprain that takes him out for 3-4 weeks. Basically, he tweaked something while pushing himself too hard at the beginning of camp and it’s about time he gets back to practice. We probably won’t see him until pre-season game 4 though.
Vereen has a hamstring injury
unless there is a muscle tear- no IR for him
Trevor Bauer: 5 Starts, 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 19 IP, 33K in the minors
Tom Brady: 11-19, 118 Yds, 2 TD in 1 preseason Game
by freeland1787 on Aug 22, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Possible Haynesworth suspension would open up a spot
At least temporarily. Given Haynesworth’s history with the league and his no contest plea, it’s possible the league may send him a message by suspending him for the first game or two of the season. It would allow them another week to evaluate a player like Moore (note — Murrell was released after week one last year, not before the start of the season).
I don't think they will suspend him, or aat least they shouldn't.
They would have to suspend half of the steelers for their off-season shenanigans.
He should suspend James Harrison
for being a crackhead
Trevor Bauer: 5 Starts, 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 19 IP, 33K in the minors
Tom Brady: 11-19, 118 Yds, 2 TD in 1 preseason Game
by freeland1787 on Aug 22, 2011 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd give the spot to one of the other DT's
give Wright and G. Warren a chance to battle it out in the regular season
Trevor Bauer: 5 Starts, 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 19 IP, 33K in the minors
Tom Brady: 11-19, 118 Yds, 2 TD in 1 preseason Game
by freeland1787 on Aug 22, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice write-up Greg, and a bit off-topic but....
What do “Pupilteers” (my name for the collective) think the Steelers will do being so far over the cap? Even reworking contracts will still leave some veterans cut. They may be in some trouble. They didn’t plan well for the new labor situation it seems…..
It's amusing really
At the start of last season, the uncapped year, the Steelers said (through Tomlin or one of the Rooneys, can’t recall) that they would follow the previous cap as a self-imposed limitation. A few pundits lauded them for the apparent morals of such a noble sacrifice, though others (and myself) saw it as an intelligent limitation, because with the cap expected to return a year later spending out of control would only hurt them long term. I find it ironic that the only team I personally heard claim publicly that they would stick to the cap is having trouble getting under it this season.
I personally believe that our remaining cap room is being saved
for the cast-offs of other teams. BB is going to be able to pluck good players away from teams that mismanaged the cap. Or he can use it to extend Mayo or Welker. Win/win any way you slice it.
Indubitably
Bill has a history of making moves at cut-down time. I don’t think he can use this year’s cap for midseason extensions though. At some point contracts become locked-in so to speak, meaning a) they become fully guaranteed for the season, and b) and new contract from then on would be an extension, and wouldn’t change the player’s payment for this season. Depending on how long after cut downs that date is, there could be some kind of window to assess the cut-down player market and finish an extension, I’m all for it, but I think it’s more likely to be a just-in-case buffer for quality cast offs and mid-season pick ups.
Incidentally, Mayo’s deal runs through 2012, and Welker’s through ‘11, so I would say an extension for Welker would be a higher priority. There’s really no need to talk deal for Mayo until the next offseason, he’s a high first round pick playing like a high first round pick so he’s not poorly compensated and with two seasons on his rookie deal I think that will wait. As for Welker, while he is in a contract year, I don’t think he’s enough of a sure thing, given his injury and subsequent down year in 2010, to work out a good deal. I think the team would be reluctant to pay him for 2007-09 production unless he shows that kind of ability again this season, and I doubt Welker’s camp would take a deal based off 2010 production unless he has another mediocre season. Welker’s leverage will be decided by this year.
Agreed
Trevor Bauer: 5 Starts, 1-1, 2.84 ERA, 19 IP, 33K in the minors
Tom Brady: 11-19, 118 Yds, 2 TD in 1 preseason Game
by freeland1787 on Aug 22, 2011 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I could see Wes
as a prime candidate for the franchise tag.
by heisthejuan on Aug 22, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he'd be a great candidate if he had been up for it this off-season
I think based on this upcoming season though his value will be pretty clearly established. Either he does another season with really good stats ala 07-09, setting him up for a deal something like what Holmes just got (whether NE would pay that is a seperate issue, but someone would). Or, he could have another 80 catch, 900 yardish season, which would probably set him up for #2 money, which I think we would definitely pay him. I think the franchise number is getting really high, higher than I’d like to pay any of our wideouts. I’d like to see Wes have a great year and earn a deal around 4 yrs 48-50M, hopefully here. I don’t think he’d get more than that without doing putting up truly extraordinary numbers.
Fortunately, all of those possibilities are decisions our FO doesn’t have to make until after 2011, when everything will be much clearer.
I personally think that is way too much for Wes Welker!
I’d like to see Wes have a great year and earn a deal around 4 yrs 48-50M, hopefully here.
$12-$12.5 million a year?? No way.
Lewis Hamilton~ 2011 F1 Champion!!!
Life is about who makes it, not who makes it the fastest! Drive slow homie.
Hmmm, still. This is exactly why i want Edelman to go nowhere. Just in case.
Lewis Hamilton~ 2011 F1 Champion!!!
Life is about who makes it, not who makes it the fastest! Drive slow homie.
Edelman is way too valuable to lose
Costs us practically nothing, solid punt returner and a very good backup to Wes. I’m not sure he knows NFL defensive coverages as well as he needs to yet, but his athleticism is a step above Welker so the potential is definitely there.
Deep in enemy territory
Actually I'll recant that further
Larry Fitzgerald’s new deal has combobulated my assumptions about WR deals, the market for the most part is lower than I thought. While deals will keep going up every year, it looks like the market for elite receivers is around 10M, with White getting 6 years 50M in 09 but Marshall getting 5 and 50 in ‘10, Holmes getting 5 and 50 in ’11. On the other hand, possession guys with less big play ability are getting less, like Anquan Boldin’s ‘10 deal for 4 years 28m. Based on that my perception of what Wes’ leverage will be has changed. In the spring of 2012, I would expect a guy like Calvin Johnson to pull 12-15M a year, and a guy like Wes should actually sit in the 4 years 36M range, which is an inflated Boldin deal. I think given his age and lack of big play ability that’s a realistic market for him. And much more favourable. We have no idea how quickly the cap will grow, but by next year the market shouldn’t inflate too much.
Stupid Cardinals throwing my numbers off. This is like when the Raiders gave Nnamdi 15M in ’09, which was what guys like Eli and Big Ben were signing up for at the time. Totally throws off the payscale.
There are ways around it.
It’s pretty flexible.
The most interesting thing will be when irs time for a new deal for Polamalu. No way he takes less than Weddle, so that’s up around 10 mil for a 32 year old safety with a history of injuries and dumbass hits.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
Big Al.......
……maybe out for my guess a minimum of four games possibly more. Having court room drama from the past will keep him rehabbing, conditioning, and playbooking till midseason minimum. That opens up Warren to make the cut, Haynesworth hits the suspension list.
Meh.
I’m not a huge fan of suspending players for their off-the-field issues. I mean, that’s why we have the police and a judicial system that doesn’t run through Goodell. Instead of questioning the NFL for not punishing these guys accordingly, we should be questioning the system we have in place that allows celebrities to get away with sh*t. While the teams do have a certain responsibility to not employ rapists, thugs, and murderers, they are, in fact, a business and their number one priority is to hire people who maximize their potential revenue.
by mrjpark on Aug 22, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you
about Goodell punishing players for what they do off the field, especially if their off-field actions result in punishment meted out by the courts. But it’s not unusual that an arrest, even without a conviction, could get any schmo fired from his job, not just an NFL player.
Keep the faith!
Yep,
“In the news tonight, the CEO of IBM was arrested in connection with an escort service that uses underage girls trafficked to the United States from Central America.”
Now if it was discovered that the CEO only used the service once, never had sex, and the one woman was an adult who joined the service on her own. He would not be charged.
He very likely wouldn’t have that job anymore because of the bad publicity he brought while the facts were coming out.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
My life has been a trivial pursuit. Trivia: where three roads meet.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Aug 23, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope not
His off-field suspensions include a couple of (sober) driving related incidents and a minor sexual assault. Adrian Peterson has as many driving related problems as Al, and while Haynesworth was found guilty, it took two VERY serious allegations against Roethlisberger (also a higher profile player) to get him in trouble. While Goddell is anything but predictable, I think the real key is public perception, and there has been far more outrage about Al’s perceived laziness than there has been about his off-field transgressions.
On the other hand, if he does get suspended, he also gets taken away from the coaching staff, which would be a significant blow. Fortunately he’s been in meetings and whatnot while nursing his knee, so mentally he’ll be up to speed by the regular season regardless of how long it is before he takes the field again.
Looks like he will face no punishment from the league.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
He shouldn't
I don’t condone what he was accused of, but he pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge. He has to stay out of trouble and perform 160 hours of community service so he’s not getting away with anything either.
Goodell doesn’t need to pile on with a suspension that keeps him out of a disciplined locker room and the men (Wilfork & co.) who have the best chance of keeping him engaged in a positive, productive atmosphere.
Keep the faith!
by Marima on Aug 23, 2011 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
If Tate is back and healthy......
…..going to be a photo finish for him. Just don’t feel he has enough to make the cut or and IR has been his life from day one. His health has been an issue and continues to be, sorry but they need to take him out for “the one way hunt” end his misery.
Love Sanders and Sammy Morris, but might want to carry three bullets out on that hunt with you. Eric Moore and another Guard/Center needs to make the roster at least early in the season.
If a guy with as much tenure as Gerard Warren
Is cut, is he subject to waiver claims (like young guys the Pats try to sneak onto the PS) or is he instantly a free agent? I wonder if he could be waived with the understanding that the Pats may need him to return later in the season. Warren needs a ring more than he needs a low-level contract from a team that isn’t in contention.
I think he's a straight free-agent
He only goes on waivers if a) he’s young, or b) he’s released midseason (ala Randy Moss). That’s my understanding.
I believe Warren wants to be here and hopefully he makes the cut, with the missed time of the younger interior linemen he’s got a shot.
I think once they have their 4 seasons, they become free agents.
As long as they’re released before the trade deadline.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
In my only moves i’d make that differ from you, I don’t see Tate being placed on IR…and instead being cut and having room for Ohrnberger. Maybe Moore over Wright too, but I’m not nearly as confident with that decision.
I'm worried about Wright...
…I think he was on the bubble anyway, but he has not practiced in weeks. Lingering concussion symptoms? If so, it’s IR for him.
He's not on the bubble.
He’ll either make it or IR.
"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West
If he is still having concussion symptoms then I am worried for him as a person not his spot on the team.
I mean how many months has it been? That has gotta suck.
Other questions
Is Lee Smith making progress on long snapping, gaining weight for OL substitution? Who is most tradeable for draft choices [5,6 and 7 missing in 2012] . .Edelman ?[Farnham, Slater show skill], Guyton? suddenly there are a lot of LB.s and more 4-3 play, Smith? Yeatman? Do we need 5,6, and 7 anyway? Personally from the minimum I"ve seen I’d like to keep and develop Yeatman and Smith. A WR has to go if there is a trade offer for a particular one I’d think hard. Is there the compensation for free agent signings still in place from the CBA [Page and injured Ty Warren] .
Is there a limit to how many people you can put on IR?
Or is it just how many you are willing to pay for?
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