2011 Fantasy Football: Patriots to draft ; Stay Away From

As the 2011 fantasy football season comes upon us, it's time to examine the New England Patriots players that you should and should not draft or pick up in your league. I wish this was a perfect world and I could say to pick up every Patriot you see and that they will all help you win your league championship, but unfortunately, that's not the case. Hopefully every Patriot player will contribute to getting us a Lombardi trophy but they won't always be the best options for you to win your league trophy. Follow me across the jump to get started on analysis.

Who You Want

Tom Brady - There are many players ranked better than Tom Brady that if you really want Tommy Terrific, you can probably still find him there in the second round. But if you're in a deep league with 14-20 teams, and you have a pick later in the first round, I would suggest taking Brady if you want him, in the first round while he's still available. I project him to have another stellar, MVP performance. His receiving cast is the same but with one more addition, and a great one by what we've seen so far in training camp - Chad Ochocinco. Ochocinco will only help Brady's game and he'll help the star turn in top tier statistics again. Bar injury, Brady is one of your safest, most reliable quarterback options. (Don't be fooled by the glamour of Michael Vick. There's no one more injury prone than the electric set of legs in Philadelphia.)

Deion Branch - Since there isn't a true #1 target in our receiving corps and since Branch, Welker, and Ochocinco are all going to be sharing the show, don't draft Branch early to be your #1 or #2 WR. Wait until atleast the fifth, even sixth round to draft him to be your #3 WR. He's not going to put up #1 WR statistics and that's the kind of statistics you want from your #1 and #2 WR's. If you're playing fantasy football for the first time this year, let me clear something up for you. For all of you who have played fantasy football for years, this is going to sound stupid but believe me, I have come across more than a few people who have thought this. You do NOT want a #1 WR playing your #1 WR slot, a #2 WR playing your #2 WR slot, and a slot receiver playing your #3 WR slot. You want the best possible statistics so you want #1 WR's in all 3 slots and if you can't get 3 top tier receivers, then #2 receivers to fill the other slots.

Chad Ochocinco - I believe Chad Ochocinco and Wes Welker are going to have identical years. Ochocinco lacks the speed he once had and he never really was a speed demon. He runs great routes, has been picking up the playbooks with ease in training camp, and will be a great possession receiver on the field. I expect him to be a reliable set of hands with minimal drops. Pick him up around the fourth to sixth rounds. Who knows? Maybe he'll even turn in #1 WR-like statistics the way he's looking.

Wes Welker - Wes Welker had a very bad case of the drops last season. He had the league lead in drops. Although I don't blame him because of the torn ACL the previous year and in his recovery, he still put up a great year, I hope that he has taken the extra year of time to fix the drops problem and revert back to old form. He should be a reliable WR for your fantasy team, putting up atleast 600-700 yards and 5 TD's. Take him in the fifth to seventh rounds and you won't regret it.

Who You Could Do Without

Stephen Gostkowski - Gostkowski is going to be one of the first kickers taken in your fantasy draft, guaranteed. Yahoo Sports! lets you do mock drafts and I've done a few this year to find common tendencies to exploit in my real draft and I have seen Gostkowski go first in all but one of the mock drafts. He's going to have a great year bar injury. He should be fully recovered from his injury from last year and should be back to form as one of the best kickers in the league. He's a very reliable leg. He doesn't always kick the longest field goals but rarely misses the ones he kicks. Just don't take him earlier than the sixth or seventh round because you absolutely do not need to. Don't cry if you miss out on Gostkowski. The difference between the best kicker and the 10th best kicker is only a few points each week and the best ranked kickers from last year don't always translate to the best performing kickers this year. But Gostkowski should still be one of the top performing kickers. I like Sebastian Janikowski better because he has a more powerful leg, usually notches most of the 50+ FG's and the Raiders let him try many as well. If Janikowski is still on the board along with Gostkowski when it comes time for you to take your kicker, I recommend Janikowski. But like I said, the difference between kickers is minimal.

New England Patriots Defense - There is no need to draft a defense before the sixth or seventh round. In real football, there's a saying, "Defense wins championships." I'm telling you right now, to all the rookie fantasy GMs. Defense does not win fantasy championships. The difference between the best defense and the 10th best defense is more significant than the difference between kickers but not significant enough of a difference to grab the defense in an early round. And don't be fooled. The best ranked defense of last year might as well be the 5th best defense this year. The top 7 defenses are mercurial every year, always changing positions in the statistic accumulation charts. Nevertheless, New England is one of those top 7 defenses. When it does come time to draft your defense, there will probably be 2-3 defenses that you should consider first if they're still available. Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Baltimore stand out in my mind. But after that, I'd safely rank New England. The experience that last year's rookies attained is invaluable and I say they come together for a great sophomore season.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Most fantasy leagues have 2 starting RB slots, and again, unless your team is deep with 14-20 teams, I don't suggest drafting the Law Firm to start for you. There's a good chance he can turn in another 1,000 yard rushing performance but there's as good a chance that he won't, with more competition in the running game. The Patriots are one of the teams with the greatest depth at runningback. That's great for the team but that makes every Patriot RB not so great for your fantasy squad. Already sharing carries with Danny Woodhead, and now competing with Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, expect BJGE's playing time to drop from last year's and therefore his statistics as well. He'd be safe to take as a back-up RB though, in case of injuries or for your starters' bye weeks.

Who You Don't Want

Danny Woodhead - Danny Woodhead, like BJGE, is going to get less playing time with more competition at RB. But he'll still be a reliable third down back and a weapon catching passes out of the backfield. If your league, like mine, has a utilityman position (WR, RB, or TE), Woodhead might be a safe option for that slot but otherwise, leave him on your bench if you intend on drafting him. He won't put up starting RB or WR statistics. You want an actual starting RB or WR for those positions.

Aarob Gronknandez - Stay away from the two-headed monster. Do not go near it unless you have 2 starting TE slots or you're okay with him being on your bench for your starter's bye weeks. But I wouldn't be okay with even that. This two headed monster gave me a monstrous headache last year. I drafted Rob Gronkowski late in my draft because I thought he'd accumulate more statistics. But I had Marcedes Lewis as my starting TE. Every week I decided to start Gronkowski, Hernandez stole the show. So then I got frustrated and by midseason, I dropped Gronkowski and picked up Hernandez. Now Gronkowski was stealing the show every time I decided to start Hernandez. There wasn't even a decipherable pattern. It wasn't Herndo, Gronk, Herndo, Gronk or Herndo, Herndo, Gronk, Gronk. It was random which of the two would have a better game each week. Unless you can somehow telepathically reach inside of Bill Belichick's head, you don't want to start one of these two men because I guarantee you, the other will steal the show every week you decide to do so.

- - -

And there you have it. The New England Patriots that you should consider drafting and staying away from if you want to win your fantasy league trophy. Of course there are many more Patriot players, but unless your league is extremely aberrant from the norm and has something like 2 QBs, 5 WRs, 4 RBs, 3 TEs, and 2 K's, you don't need to worry about the rest of the Patriots. They won't be a significant help to you in fantasy football. I hope you enjoyed reading my article and good luck to you all this upcoming fantasy year!