Total Offensive Production Ratings


For those that haven't read my previous post, I created a formula to determine how well each offense sustains a drive down the field.  The formula utilized yards per play (YPP), 3rd down conversion %, and turnovers.  You can read my post here.

I bring to you the final chapters with ratings for Scoring Efficiency and Total Offensive Production.  Here is how the two formulas are used:

Scoring Efficiency was rated by using the % of TDs and FGs made from a team's total offensive possessions. Being that TDs score twice as many points as FGs, I doubled that percentage.  I then added this rating with the FG %.  For example, Houston scored 44 offensive TDs in 173 possessions, scoring a TD on 25% of possessions.  They kicked 27 FGs, finishing at 15%.  I doubled the 25% and then added 15%, giving Houston a Scoring Efficiency of 65, tied for fourth in the NFL with Philadelphia and New Orleans.

For Total Offensive Production,  I simply added the Scoring Efficiency Ratings (SER), with my previous Offensive Efficiency Ratings (OER).  This final rating allowed an even split between rating each team's ability to drive down the field and to score points.  As an example of this, I took Houston's 65 SER and added their 85.1 OER, giving them a total of 150.1 for Total Offensive Production, ranking 2nd in the NFL.

Below is the rankings for each team in Total Offensive Production.  I will post their Scoring Efficiency Rating and their rank in parenthesis.


1) New England: 183.2 (84, 1)

2) Houston: 150.1 (65, T-4)

3) San Diego: 147.9 (69, T-2)

4) Indianapolis: 145.6 (69, T-2)

5) Atlanta: 144.7 (64, 7)

6) Philadelphia: 142.7 (65, T-4)

7) Pittsburgh: 142.1 (59, T-9)

8) New Orleans: 140.8 (65, T-4)

9) Green Bay: 140.5 (61, 8)

10) Tampa Bay: 135.5 (56, 13)

11) Kansas City: 129.7 (53, 17)

12) Baltimore: 127.0 (55, T-14)

13) Dallas: 126.8 (58, 11)

14) Jacksonville: 121.9 (59, T-9)

15) New York Jets: 121.6 (49, T-20)

16) Oakland: 120.1 (55, T-14)

17) Detroit: 118.1 (51, T-18)

18) Tennessee: 115.8 (55, T-14)

19) Denver: 113.4 (51, T-18)

20) New York Giants: 110.9 (57, 12)

21) San Francisco: 107.9 (44, T-25)

22) Cincinnati: 105.8 (49, T-20)

23) Seattle: 105.5 (44, T-25)

24) St. Louis: 105.2 (45, T-23)

25) Cleveland: 105.1 (45, T-23)

26) Miami: 105.0 (44, T-25)

27) Chicago: 101.8 (47, 22)

28) Washington: 96.3 (42, 29)

29) Buffalo: 94.9 (43, 28)

30) Minnesota: 91.6 (41, 30)

31) Arizona: 74.8 (33, 31)

32) Carolina: 67.4 (29, 32)

Once again, the Patriots lead the league in the NFL by a large margin.  The Patriots have scored a TD on 35% of their offensive possessions.  Another 14% of their drives have ended in FGs.  Overall, 78 of their offensive possessions have resulted in points, a ridiculous 49%.  To me, this goes to show there is not an offense more efficient than New England, either moving the ball or putting up points.  Not only did New England lead the league in offensive TDs, but they did it with the least amount of possessions by any team. The league average for possessions was 183.  The Patriots finished with 158 possessions, 25 fewer than the league average.  The league average for Total Offensive Production (TOP) was 120.0, a number the Patriots passed with ease.  The difference between New England and the Panthers, the worst offense in the NFL?  The Patriots have more TDs than Carolina has TDs and FGs combined.  Carolina has scored scored TDs on 8% of their drives compared to New England's 35%.  The Chargers and Colts were tied for second in scoring TDs per possession, finishing at 27%.

Once again, if enough people like this statistic, I will post updates after weeks 4, 8, 12, and 17.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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