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Examination of Miami's offensive stats Monday night

So the win last night felt great, yet the defense seemed to let up at the end and almost allowed the Dolphins back into the game. I wanted to take a look at Miami's drive stats and see what was up, since I also felt that the defense looked good for a good portion of the night. Some of you may see I posted this in a few comments of a post-game thread, but I wanted to put it all in one place in case anyone was interested.

Chad Henne passed for 416 yards last night. However, 181 of those came on the Dolphins' final 4 possessions, the first of which began with 11:02 remaining in the 4th quarter and following a touchdown which puts the Patriots ahead 31-17. Henne did look very good at times, though, and in my opinion could be a far more motivated player following some of the things said about him this offseason.

Miami had 13 possessions, including a kneel down to end the first half. So out of 12 real possessions, they mounted 5 drives of more than 60 yards (the others were 31 yards or fewer). Of those 5 long drives, 3 came with less than 9 minutes to play in the game. They accounted for 213 yards but produced only 1 TD (4th down stop a half-yard line and Arrington INT at the end).

Prior to that point, Miami mounted drives of 84 and 87 yards, resulting in a TD and a FG. Those were their first possession of the game and their second possession of the third quarter. Their first possession of the second half came off the interception which set up a TD “drive” inside the Patriots’ 10 yard line. 6 of Miami’s first 9 substantive possessions ended with a punt.

What this all means is that if that INT doesn’t happen and our defense doesn’t lay off in the late 4th Quarter, this is a 38-10 game. Miami’s offensive stats came largely in garbage time. Belichick will no doubt emphasize the importance of playing a full 60 minute game this week in preparation for San Diego. If ever there was a game in which minimizing mistakes and capitalizing on those of your opponent could prove the difference, it would be against the Chargers.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Final 4 possessions?

I’d say the last 2 possessions were the only “garbage” possessions. A 14 point game with 9 minutes to go is not a game over scenario. New England wasn’t in prevent. Heck, for most teams, a 14 point game with over 3 minutes to go is not an automatic victory so you could argue Miami had 1 garbage possession. Being that it is darn near impossible to beat New England when down by 2 scores with less than 4 minutes left, I will give that one.

But I don’t even think Brady or Belichick would admit the game was over when they had a 14 point lead with 9 to go. Especially when Miami had a first and goal trailing by 14 with over 6 minutes left.

Let’s hope the Pats don’t become that complacent. As a Fin fan that witnessed Dave Wannstedt’s complacent views of thinking a 14 point lead in the 4th was insurmountable, I’ve witnessed plenty of teams make those comebacks. New England’s offense and defense will be sorely disappointed at times if they become that complacent and will lose games.

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

by Finhead83 on Sep 13, 2011 11:07 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, that is a fair point

I guess a more appropriate way of putting it would be when the defense visibly slackened and seemed to allow the Dolphins to make plays that they hadn’t been able to earlier in the game. That’s not to say the Miami offense wasn’t impressive, because it certainly was (Henne in particular). Just having watched the game and then looked at the numbers it’s startling the way there is a drop off in defensive performance in the 4th quarter.

There are several caveats to that: first, New England held up well in the red zone late in the game, so to say the defense gave up isn’t fair to them at all. Their 4th quarter strategy was clearly band-don’t-break, and you could argue that it worked very well, as the Dolphins mounted 3 sustained drives and came away with only 7 points.

Also, while I didn’t notice it while watching, it’s possible that the defense was simply wearing out. It seemed as though Henne was having much more success with longer throws late in the game, which could be attributed to the defensive backs being tired or simply Brandon Marshall winning his matchups.

Anyways, my point wasn’t to take away from what Miami did positively in the game, but rather to put the defense’s performance in context. Following Miami’s powerful opening drive the defense allowed Miami to move the ball more than 31 yards only once until the mid-4th quarter, forcing punts on 6 of 8 drives and only allowing a TD off a short field set up by an interception. As soon as the Boston media were done talking about Brady and the offense I noticed several articles claiming the defense wasn’t any bit improved from last season. I believe this to be a faulty, superficial conclusion and wanted to lay out my argument for why I thought so.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Sep 13, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

How about "hot and tired"

instead of “visibly slacking”. At least the Patriots defenders looked better conditioned than the Fins’ in the heat and high humidity. I figured both defenses would be pretty gassed somewhere in the third quarter, so I hoped Brady & co. would be able to score early to counter that effect.

Another highlight from the Pats defense, that was a huge improvement from last year (so far) was that Miami could only convert 2 out of 14 third downs. That, plus the goal line stop, was key.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Sep 13, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Considering they had 1 play to rest between 2 long drives, yeah

That’s fair to say. And I do like the 3rd down stat. What bugs me is how they put several drives together while only converting 2 3rd downs all game (it might be misleading, if encouraging). But I’m happy to see any improvement at all over last year.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Sep 13, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Pats were already playing soft well before that 6:17 "TD".

It was a 21 point lead (31-10). They were already only rushing 4 and playing well off the receivers in the drive that started at 8:48. Note that the guys in coverage on the completed pass plays that moved the ball were, in order

Barrett (21 yds),
Barrett (31yds),
Barrett (15 yds),
Bodden (3 yds),
Bodden (7 yds – the questionable TD play).

Basically, they had the rookie (Barrett) out there – playing soft – and the Phins moved down the field on him before the field shrunk and then they squeaked out the TD.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Sep 13, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

correction - Barrett is not a rookie (he's a 2nd year)

but he might as well be a rookie.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Sep 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep.

I’m sure he’s getting an earful in the film room today. But I’ll bet he’s more than happy to get yelled at so long as they believe he can get better. And I believe they do. He’s got amazing physicals and seems to be a fairly smart kid. Just raw and inexperienced.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Sep 13, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

it was never 31-10

at the end of the 3rd quarter with the Pats about to score the TD to Herndo the score was 24-17. Obviously that score made it 31-17.

by Oughat on Sep 13, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

It was never 31-10.

As I posted in the other on your comment…

Miami scored their 17th point halfway through the 3rd quarter. The score was never 31-10. New England had a 21-17 lead in the 3rd. New England never held a 3 score lead until the 99-yard TD pass with under 6 minutes left in the game. That put New England up 38-17. You may want to recheck your info.

- Attempting to debate with a person who has abandoned reason is like giving medicine to the dead.
- Defeat isn't bitter if you don't swallow it.

by Finhead83 on Sep 13, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is right^

Welker TD, Bush TD, then the last Miami drive ended the game

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Sep 14, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, as i conceded in the other thread, my head was swapping MIA scoring results for some reason

Not sure how I did that.

The coverage checks on the above mentioned drive are still true, though.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Sep 14, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Patriot Defense

Man, I swear, the local media and hard-to-please incorrigible Pats fans won’t be happy until the final tallies of the games are in the ballpark of 70-0, each time around.

What is a good defense, truly? A lot of people are looking at Miami’s 24 pts. and Henne’s passing yards as the indicators of a poor performance, but I don’t think that really tells the story. What impressed me most about this defense—and something I see improving even moreso seeing as this was the first game of the season with a totally revamped and re-philosophized DL—was how they stepped up during important, game-changing scenarios. The goal line stand. The incredible 2-14 (!) 3rd down conversions by Miami. The constant pressure from a rotating D-Line.

It wasn’t perfect, by any means. There’s obviously a ton of room for improvement, but you can simply chalk a lot of that up to Miami’s terrific play. Devin McCourty couldn’t have covered Brandon Marshall any better on a few of those completions, but those are the breaks. That won’t happen each week.

The Pats will never have a shutdown-type defense, but the important thing to remember is they don’t really need one thanks to the domination and consistency of the offense. They score at will. I’m blown away by the possibilities of the defense of this year when comparing it to last year’s. I know a lot of you were cringing at seeing shades of last year’s prevent -style collapse and the 4th qtr. pile-on, but I am more intrigued by the new DL completely neutralizing run games, making opposing offenses one-dimensional, and letting Dowling bloom alongside the talents of McCourty and Bodden. You will see better performances, this was just a preview.

Can I Scream?

by Adam Fox on Sep 13, 2011 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

2 of 14! Exactly!

Plus, the Patriots made adjustments during the game … and they worked. I’m with you. And Dowling looked terrific, especially for a rookie who had no OTAs and no playing time in training camp. Lots of positives here.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Sep 13, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is exactly what I'm saying

I think they did great. Even better than the stat sheet shows. I wasn’t thrilled to see stuff out there first thing this morning claiming there had been no improvement.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Sep 13, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

>The Pats will never have a shutdown-type defense

I don’t know about that. they will get better as season progresses

by prioris on Sep 13, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ras-I and Barrett

They threw Dowling and Barrett to the wolves and they held up fine. Maybe the Chargers try to pick on them. Maybe they have success. I’d be wary of throwing too many Ras-I’s way, he’s got some ball skills.

by sweetjesusihatethejets on Sep 13, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Thought it was weird he didn't have any official passes defensed

I could swear I thought he batted one or two away last night in coverage. Either way he looked really solid. I’m excited about having Bodden back as well.

Deep in enemy territory

by JeffyB on Sep 13, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bodden, with help at times, very quietly took care of Bess

The plan to nullify Bess worked as he only had two catches for 37 yards through three quarters. The rest of his yards came later when the game was in hand.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Sep 13, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

and with other guys covering him.

Only two of Bess’ catches came with Bodden covering him (for 11 and 6 yds). He also got one while covered by McCourty, but that was after Welker’s score and the game was over.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Sep 14, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also remember that the Pats O did very little to help the D

I have issues with the Pats 4th Q offense, which I posted separately. Relating to this post I’ll simply say the Pats D was on the field nearly twice as long as the Pats O, 9:22 to 5:38, and that’s WAY too long when you are up by two possessions.

Prior to the 4th the Pats D had given up 17 points with 7 of those points coming on a very short field. That’s a pretty good night in my book. Issues here or there but overall a good night.

To be on the field for nearly 10 minutes of the 4th Q though, in a hot, humid game off a short off-season – that’s a lot to ask any D to maintain an effective level.

Pats need to run more, kill the clock & save the D

by JonnyNYC on Sep 13, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Looking back on it
hot, humid game off a short off-season

That’s a very good point. I can’t really think of any team’s D that looked spectacular on opening week, save for maybe Chicago’s. Pittsburgh’s D got absolutely torn to shreds by the Ravens. You know that won’t be a recurring theme, despite Father Time creeping up on that corps.

Can I Scream?

by Adam Fox on Sep 13, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Speaking of Pitt, their O-Line is a bit of a wreck (or more than usual). Their starting RT Willie Colon is out for the year.

In GOD I TRUST>In BB i trust......faith where it belongs!!
Life is about who makes it, not who makes it the fastest! Drive slow homie.

by PatNation85 on Sep 13, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Baltimore's looked pretty good.

Maybe that was just the Steelers offense, though.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by ISN on Sep 13, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

but every time they passed in the 4th

Gruden & Jaws kept announcing that the Patriots were trying to add to their stats. All they were doing was trying to get a first down to keep possession of the ball.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Sep 13, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

When not accidentally dropping profanity...

…Jaws and Gruden are basically cheerleading hype-mongers. I wouldn’t worry too much about what they say. The sad thing is, they both know a lot and could add to fan knowledge, but instead they just talk about how much they like guys. It’s annoying.

True wealth is a shelf full of unread books.

by Hometown Gyro on Sep 14, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gruden's an interesting one.

It comes through sometimes, and you can see how good he would be as a colour guy if he broke down every play like a coach (like when we get footage of Belichick analysing plays). The “this guy” stuff is a caricature of his normal self, he puts that on for the broadcast. He’s leaving the door open for a return to coaching by not giving away everything in the booth.

"Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me." Mayor Adam West

by ISN on Sep 15, 2011 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

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