AFCCG Patriots vs Ravens: 5 Things to Preview
by Richard Hill on Jan 21, 2012 2:30 PM EST
in Patriots Game Previews
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PrintThis is the big game, until the next big game. One game at a time.
1. Stopping Rice - Baltimore running back Ray Rice is the engine that powers the Ravens offense. If he can be stopped, then the Patriots' chances of winning skyrocket. However, stopping Rice is no easy task and very few teams have managed to slow him down this season. Rice has the ability to see cutback lanes and is quick to hit them to break for additional yardage. It's imperative that the Patriots try to contain Rice in the backfield and not allow him to get to the edge and turn the corner- or receive any passes in the flat. As long as Rice is given special attention and forced out of the play, then Flacco will lose his checkdown target and will be forced to scan the field for another target- and in that time, he's likely to be sacked.
Play Ravens. Stop Rice. ????. Profit.
2. Protecting Brady - It's a generally accepted fact on how teams can stop the Patriots offense; send four rushers, get to Brady, tight man coverage down the field. The play has no time to develop and Brady has to make a throw that doesn't exist. The Ravens have a host of ferocious pass rushers like Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata who are all capable of reaching Brady. My opinion? If Sebastian Vollmer is ready to play, have him play right tackle and have Nate Solder on the field to motion towards whatever side Suggs is on. If Vollmer can't play, I think Marcus Cannon is one of the few offensive linemen in the league with the same weight as Ngata- maybe he can help in protection?
The Patriots offensive line must keep Brady clean and give him the same time they gave him against the Broncos with Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller.
3. Tight Ends - I would argue that the Patriots have the two best tight ends in the AFC, especially with how injured Antonio Gates has been over the past couple of years, as well as how limited Dallas Clark has become. While Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the league, with the most complete balance of receiving and blocking, Aaron Hernandez adds value as one of the most dangerous pure receiving tight ends in the league finishing with 23 missed tackles (10 more than second place: Gronkowski). The Patriots tight ends finished top 5 in the following categories, based of Pro Football Focus' list of players with more than 50% of the team's offensive snaps:
Receptions: (2) Gronkowski, (5) Hernandez
Yards: (1) Gronkowski, (4) Hernandez
Yards After Catch: (1) Gronkowski, (2) Hernandez
YAC/Reception: (2) Gronkowski, (5) Hernandez
Touchdowns: (1) Gronkowski, (4) Hernandez
Missed Tackles (1) Hernandez, (2) Gronkowski
That's impressive and places both Gronkowski and Hernandez firmly in the top 5 of receiving tight ends in the league. Should both players break free against the Ravens and have successful games, it will be hard for the Ravens to keep up with the Patriots offense. The Ravens tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson, are often used up the seam as Joe Flacco's first read. If the Patriots can slow the Ravens tight ends, and force Flacco to throw to the outside, the Patriots will have a better chance of winning the game.
4. Discipline - Ray Rice is a dangerous runner who can cut back in the blink of an eye. If he gets to the outside, the Patriots will be in for a long day. Joe Flacco is exceptionally mobile and can get out of the pocket (think: Mark Sanchez) to extend the play and throw down the field. The key is for the Patriots defensive front to capture Flacco inside the pocket and force him to throw off of his back foot. The Patriots must also contain Rice and not open up any cutback lanes for him to wreak havoc. The Patriots defense will have to be disciplined in order to slow the Ravens offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense cannot afford any ridiculous penalties to stall drives. They must score 7 on every drive until the game is well within reach. No penalties. No turnovers. The Ravens defense is chippy and they're prone to make boneheaded mistakes if they are frustrated with how the opposing offense is driving. Let them be frustrated because they make more mistakes. Cool heads will prevail.
5. Home Runs - Ray Rice. Torrey Smith. Ed Reed. All players are capable of taking one play and using it to blow the game wide open. Don't let Rice break for an 80 yard touchdown. Don't let Smith free down the sideline for a 70 yard score. Don't let Reed intercept a pass and take it 99 yards to the house. Whichever teams has the most home run plays will win the game. Bank on it.
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Nice article except saying they must score 7 on every drive, thats unrealistic
Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit.
Edward Abbey
by TONYBOI08 on Jan 21, 2012 2:37 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Agree, but I translate it as - It's of the upmost imprtance that the Pats
don’t have 3 and outs, and squander opportunities when they have the ball, otherwise, it could be a long day.
Utmost
"Every time I call it a game, you call it a business. Every time I call it a business, you call it a game."
"The longer they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all."
by JohnHannahRules on Jan 22, 2012 5:35 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
score 7 on every drive in the 1st half
patriots will win
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Well he notes that they should score 7 on every drive until the game is out of reach
so he’s basically looking for the same level of production that we saw against the Broncos which isn’t too unrealistic.
Tom Brady(2000): "Hi, Mr. Kraft" (he was about to say who he was)
Rob Kraft(2000): "I know who you are, you’re Tom Brady, you’re our sixth-round draft choice."
Tom Brady(2000-staring Kraft in the eye): "I’m the best decision this organization has ever made."
Rob Kraft(2012): "It looks like he could be right, although hiring Bill Belichick, I think, also has been a pretty good decision."
We are what we repeadtedly do Excellence then is not an act, but a habit
Aristotle
Coming the Ravens D is much better than the Broncos
Putting up that many points on them and moving the ball the way we were is too unrealistic
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
More saying that need to score 7 points, instead of 3.
Touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.
by Richard Hill on Jan 21, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
The Ravens tight ends are a concern
I would imagine they watched the Pittsburgh game and saw how effectively they gashed us with Heath MIller. I believe we adjusted to that, but I still think they will use them in the gameplan to get our linebackers out of the box, so they can open up more lanes for Rice. Hopefully we defend that early, and get them out of that strategy.
this is where chung is important
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
That was when we were in a 4-3.
With only 3 LBs in the middle. XD
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
I re-watched that Pittsburgh game
And I had to stop myself from shouting “Somebody cover Miller God ^%&#*!”
That week they had a lot of shuffling in the defensive lineup, and it really showed. It’s like when a college basketball team just runs their offense, but no one is willing to actually drive or shoot. If you just play your defensive scheme like robots, a good QB will find the soft spot that you’re ignoring every single time.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 21, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention they had horrible tackling on that day
which isn’t atypical after bye week nowadays…especially under new CBA
Thad Castle: Which one of you assholes stuck his finger in my asshole?
While they may have watched that game, this team is pretty different from the team that got beat by the Steelers. The season is long, and that game was long ago.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
excellent analysis from all
solidifying my confidence that we can handle Dickson, and Pitta
If I were the Ravens, my first play from scrimmage would be to show a heavy set, I-formation, tight end, fake the handoff to Ray Rice and throw a bomb to Torrey Smith
I think psychologically the 83-yard run is still quite important.
by quadruple option on Jan 21, 2012 2:53 PM EST reply actions
This is the play that scares me. I'm 100% sure they'll try it at some point.
This is the game which the D will settle the doubts. Can they keep us in this? Or will they come up a bit short? Because I’m calling it right now: Brady will look flustered and the pass rush will be ferocious.
Lakers and Patriots forever.
"Brady will look flustered and the pass rush will be ferocious"
I hope not. I’m sure that will be the Ravens strategy, at times, but I believe this is the game where we see our O-line get it’s playoff mojo back. Actually, keep the mojo rolling, because they dominated Denver, who had a pretty good pass rush. We all know the O-line has been a contributing factor to our recent playoff losses, but I really like how this line has come together, and I believe we will see them continue to play at a high level tomorrow.
I think you're way wrong. Patriots come out scoring and the game becomes out of reach by half-time more or less.
I don’t care about who they haven’t beat this season. This team is young and can be very atomic when they get situated. BB will come out withe some of the best plays you have ever seen in the beginning of an AFC championship game. 38-17
by Yardpenalty.com on Jan 21, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Would love to see it
and it wouldn’t surprise me, but I kind of feel the Ravens might at least slow us down some.
However, how amazing would it be to see us just keep clicking from the Denver game, keep that momentum rolling.
I think the only offense they faced like ours was the Chargers, and look what happened there, in a game they really wanted because Pittsburgh was on their heels.
I’ve been thinking today about 2009. I’m not sure the Ravens are a better team than they were then. We are.
"I’m not sure the Ravens are a better team than they were then. We are."
Not to sound gay or anything, but I love you.
"Every time I call it a game, you call it a business. Every time I call it a business, you call it a game."
"The longer they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all."
by JohnHannahRules on Jan 21, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
DO I have some doubt....yea of course, but....
The things that have been a worry or doubt in the back of my mind from past seasons; like if we get pass rushed our offense isn’t efficient, run game none existent when needed, and our defense not making the big 3rd down stops. This team gives me some confidence and guess what? Its game day and I aint sleepin until we are going to SB 46! WOO HOO! GO PATS and I will see you for some SB TALK!
by Yardpenalty.com on Jan 22, 2012 4:08 AM EST up reply actions
i can't sleep because my roommate is keeping me up
it sucks to be a light sleeper
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 22, 2012 4:34 AM EST up reply actions
I was thinking this as well
Everyone expects a hand off to Rice, I figured if they want to send a message early, a bomb on a seam rout would wake everyone up nice and early. Like in that Eagles game.
by DukeofChutney on Jan 21, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
As much I understand the importance of getting momentum on our side
1TD is just 1TD and this team definitely has resiliency to bounce back unlike 2009 because they have done it already multiple times.
Off course I will have a heart attack if it is going to be the repeat of the 2nd BUF game and Ravens D# are not as generous as MIA D#.
It is ideal to have the game like the one against DEN but one early TD by one big play won’t concern me that much. (If they score a TD with a long drive like PIT, then it is a completely different story though)
Thad Castle: Which one of you assholes stuck his finger in my asshole?
Very important obviously to stop the run
but as important is limiting/stopping Rice out of the backfield. That is a bread and butter play for the Ravens, and I hope we are focused on that. We need someone always knowing where he is, because those little 2 yard dumpoffs can turn into 20-30 yards if rice is uncovered.
In the Houston game, they got one, and only one, but it was big one. After that Houston did a great job making sure someone was on Rice, and shut him down in the second half. I really want to see that from our D on Sunday.
Flacco is like a statue to me. lol
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
He can run, he just chooses not to
One thing that Richard said that I don’t quite agree with is the “Extend the play and throw down the field” part. From the Ravens games that I watched, that type of play is really not his game. If he sees wide open space he’ll try to run for the first down, or he’ll take a few steps away from the rush and try to hit Rice or one of his TEs on a check down. His accuracy goes way down when he is on the move though, so he tries to stay as still as possible when he’s throwing. I think he has learned that he’s no Big Ben or Tony Romo when it comes to broken plays, so he’s much more likely to play it safe when he has to run.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 21, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
I watched him against the Jets, Jaguars, Steelers, and 49ers...
…and he can extend the play. He prefers to stay in the pocket and can be contained, but if there’s an opening, he’ll definitely take it and wait for a receiver to work back towards him.
by Richard Hill on Jan 21, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we're possibly talking about some of the same plays
Though I saw Seattle, San Diego, and Cincy along with the 49ers game. It was just the words “down the field” that I wasn’t sure about. Whenever he threw it during a scramble it seemed like his thought process was “Well crap, the entire field outside the pocket is empty, I guess I’m going to have to run this thing. Oh look, there’s a teammate wide open 5 yards in front of me, I guess I don’t have to run it myself after all!”
I just don’t think I ever saw him throw more than a couple yards past the line of scrimmage while running, so it seems ok to me if we let him escape the pocket on a couple plays in the name of getting pressure. But we’d better have someone at least start moving toward Ray Rice when that does happen since that’s how a big play could still occur.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 21, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
Flacco is not a throw on the run guy.
That has consistently been his biggest weakness. He moves quite well for a big guy and when the O-Line gives him space to sidestep or step up in the pocket he can avoid some guys but if he has to break the pocket he’ll either run 4-5 yards himself, throw it away, or checkdown to the nearest target.
Frankly it just isn’t his game. Very few QBs can do that Roethlisberger style play where they run around and find a guy open 20-30 yards downfield.
Flacco on Madden
When I play against the Ravens in Madden, I always use Mayo, and stay spying Flacco, while covering the short dumps. Other wise he runs for 12 to 15 yards every time I drop back to far, or get pushed off to the side on a rush.
I agree that protection is paramount, but I really doubt your prescription will be followed.
I differ a bit on how to proceed, too. I hope Vollmer is healthy, but in my mind our starter is Solder. Timing, consistency, coordination are more important that raw ability when you’re talking about the o-line so long as there isn’t more than a marginal difference between two players. In the case of Vollmer and Solder, I’d say they’re comparable with different strengths. Interestingly, I think Solder’s strength is in pass blocking, and as that’s our offensive set-point, that’s what we need.
I get what you’re doing with Solder, but while he’s a potential threat to catch a pass, he’s not a true every-down weapon. Doing what you’re suggesting would voluntarily handicap our offense. When you could do the same thing with Gronkowski — and have him either chip on his way into the pattern or run block as the case may be — it doesn’t make sense to take one of your best players (and arguably your most valuable receiver) off the field or, in the alternative, any other offensive weapon.
"Every time I call it a game, you call it a business. Every time I call it a business, you call it a game."
"The longer they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all."
by JohnHannahRules on Jan 21, 2012 4:07 PM EST reply actions
Fair point.
Vollmer has background at TE so he could be utilized as that Solder role I mentioned and can also come off the field without position penalty.
I’d stay away from Gronk chipping in the pass block. Anything that forces him to engage with a Ravens defender forces him away from the play down the field and extends the time needed for him to get open. I’d stick with the OTE blocker.
by Richard Hill on Jan 21, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I'm under the impression that Gronk does this quite a bit
one of he reasons he’s one of the most complete tight ends going.
agree
Also, a “chip” from Rob seems to be more like “clobbered with a hammer.”
"Every time I call it a game, you call it a business. Every time I call it a business, you call it a game."
"The longer they play, the more they lose. In the end, we get it all."
by JohnHannahRules on Jan 21, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously
“Bump and run” against Gronk is something we should want see. : ) It seems it’d be more like “Bump and fall down”.
Go Pats. Celtics. Red Sox. Bruins.
Brady. Pierce. Thomas. How you doing?
or bump and get owned
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Boned?
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
chip suggs then go to an out route or hitch
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
This
Other teams have had some success with this play against the Ravens. Send the WR on that side down the field to clear it out, then have whoever chipped Suggs float out into the flat. Then it’s the TE one-on-one with an ILB who’s trying to react to get out to the perimeter. Unless of course the safety wants to just let that WR do a deep post or a double move against 1-on-1 coverage. Pick your poison.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 21, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
today is a slow news day
this game cannot take any longer to wait for
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
It's going by slower than a Tom Brady scramble
Keep the faith!
by Marima on Jan 21, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I thought it was great when one of the announcers said
“They probably have to time his 40 yard dash with an hourglass!”
It matters not how strait the gate, nor charged with punishments the scroll:
I am the Master of my fate. I am the Captain of my soul.
by BigRussNovak on Jan 21, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I found the Brady 6 on ABC this afternoon… it is making me more able to wait.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
Just watched it.
Great stuff. I just texted him a reminder that he was #199
do it again tomorrow
pissed brady is unstoppable
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
You can text him? lol
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
If Flacco not pressured, he can have good game.
Three key things I will look for is
1) how well patriots handle Suggs off the edge
2) how much pressure they can put on Flacco
3) turnovers and ball security …
e.g. Suggs will be trying to strip ball from brady all day
e.g. overthrown passes (interceptions)
Guys, we're forgetting about something
The Patriots would usually start off the 1st half trailing. Remember the Bills game, Pats were down by 21. In the 2nd half, they just cruised by with 7 TD’s and won the game if I remember.
But yeah, don’t underestimate the Ravens. Go Pats!!
Yep.
Last game was the only game they played a full 60 minutes. :)
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
well put as usual, Richard
a couple of things i noticed today – after going back and forth between being positive the pats were going to win, then positive they were going to lose, etc. etc.,
i keep going back to the ravens game vs. SD. i bring this up because the ravens played the majority of their defensive snaps in nickel/dime in that game. when they did that, the chargers averaged something like 10 yard per play. SD was the only decent offense the ravens faced all year (they played pittsburgh twice, and i think you could consider them above average). but other than that, they haven’t faced any pressure from opposing offenses. i think this greatly favors the pats because they can do so many versatile things on offense. the pats will force nickel/dime defense pretty much every play, run or not.
also, the stats show that the ravens were 3rd best in the nFL when it comes to receiving yards by opposing TEs. well, they shut down antonio gates but gave up 38 points. the next best tight end they faced was heath miller.
if we don’t turn the ball over and make mistakes, i think we are the better team and we win.
Im going to watch the america's game for all 3 seasons
and the super bowl highlights on hulu in anticipation for the afc championship next week
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
i beat u to it
im on the 2003 season
"Thirty-seven points on the best defense in the league, suck my d–k" - Bill Belichick
'You are banned from Gang Green Nation'
"You can browse the blog, but you can't participate."
"BANNED LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
by BostonBeasts on Jan 21, 2012 8:02 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
not just america's game
but also the super bowl exclusives- that takes 6 hours
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Love the South Park reference. Love it.
Game can very easily go either way tbh, neither of the teams can be seen as dominant, and neither can be seen as weak. Should be a good one.
Just trying to keep up.
Line of scrimmage and turnover battle
if the pats can win the battle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, then brady will have his protection and hopefully the d can limit ray rice and rattle flacco. if the offense can run the hurry up offense effectively and put up points right out of the gates while the d limits the ravens, i like the pats chances. an early start is key and winning the turnover battle will also be huge.
at least win the TO battle
105-4 when the patriots do so
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 21, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Is that really that impressive?
What’s the record for all teams when they win the TO battle?
And what’s the Pats’ record when they lose the TO battle? Last week they lost TO and TOP battles, but won by 35, which was nice.
You may have to factor in
the significance of a fumble lost when you’re up 32 points!
either way, I believe 105-4 is still pretty impressive.
Since 2000 (regular season + playoffs)...
…the Patriots lead the league in games with a +1 TO differential with 116. 2nd is GB with 98, then Baltimore with 97.
Patriots are 108-8 when they win the turnover battle, for .931 winning rate. Only team to beat that rate? Baltimore with a 92-5 record and a .948 rate.
Overall winning rate: .796.
So Patriots are definitely ahead of the curve.
Patriots are also first in the league in game with -1 turnover or less, with 65. Chiefs are 2nd with 67.
Patriots are 27-38, or .415, which is tops in the league for teams that lose the turnover battle.
by Richard Hill on Jan 22, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
Not to put any hexes on the game today
But waking up from a bad dream of Dan Dierdorff stating:
“This Patriot team need not hang thier head, they can take alot away from this season, they have good young team to build around”
I hope he’s not commentating today.
GFY
last time they needed that was 2002
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about a playoff victory?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Jan 22, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Don't worry
Dierdorff is not commentating. I dreamed that the Pats won 31-3.
It was just really vivid his voice and everything.
I wasn’t even dreaming about the game, atleast have no recollection of it
GFY
by TFBismywingman on Jan 22, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Texans fan here. I wouldn't normally have a dog in this fight, but I'm getting sickof all the talk
about how great the Ravens are, after the Texans beat them everywhere but turnovers last Sunday.
I’ll be rooting for the Pats today, and I’m confident Brady will absolutely light up Baltimore’s D. Pats 37, Ravens 17.
"How can an idiot be a policeman? Answer me that!"
-Chief Inspector Dreyfus
wow, first Texan fan i've seen throw support to the Pats
thanks, you guys played a solid game in defeat, good luck
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