Super Bowl Patriots vs Giants: Brady the Avenger
by Richard Hill on Jan 31, 2012 5:00 PM EST
in Opinion/Analysis
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Revenge. It's a term that has been thrown around for this Super Bowl. Specifically, how will Tom Brady and the Patriots exact revenge on the New York Giants for stopping the dream season from hell of 2007. Everyone knows that head coach Bill Belichick doesn't like to lose, but he especially doesn't like to lose two in a row. Whether those two in a row are consecutive games overall, or games against the same team, Belichick will use everything in his arsenal to ensure the team will not lose the second time.
So let's look at the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick history. How do they fare in same season rematches? How do they follow up a same season loss? How do they follow up a season-to-season loss? How often do they lose consecutive games to the same team?
Let's find out.
Same Season Revenge
Here's a list of games in which the Patriots lost the first match-up of the season, but faced the team down the road:
2001 (3-0):
Week 2 Jets 10-3 * Brady's first ever game. Avenged: 17-16 win in Week 13. Brady's QBR: 93.3
Week 4 Dolphins 30-10. Avenged: 20-13 win in Week 16. Brady's QBR: 91.6
Week 10 Rams 24-17. Avenged: 20-17 win the Super Bowl. Brady's QBR: 86.2
2002 (1-0):
Week 5 Dolphins 26-13. Avenged: 27-24 win in Week 17. Brady's QBR: 68.5
2003 (1-0):
Week 1 Bills 31-0. Avenged: 31-0 win in Week 17. Brady's QBR: 122.9
2004 (1-0):
Week 7 Steelers 34-20. Avenged: 41-27 in AFCCG. Brady's QBR: 130.5
2005 (0-1):
Week 6 Broncos: 28-20. Avenged: DNF. Loss 27-13 in the AFCD. Brady's QBR: 74
2006 (1-1):
Week 9 Colts: 27-20. Avenged: DNF. Loss 38-34 in the AFCCG. Brady's QBR: 79.5
Week 10 Jets: 17-14. Avenged: 27-16 in the AFCWC. Brady's QBR: 101.6
2007:
No Attempts
2008:
Brady was injured and did not play the 2008 season.
2009 (1-0):
Week 2 Jets: 16-9. Avenged: 31-14 in Week 11. Brady's QBR: 98.6
2010 (1-0):
Week 2 Jets: 28-14. Avenged: 45-3 in Week 13. Brady's QBR: 148.9
2011 (1-0):
Week 3 Bills: 34-31. Avenged: 49-21 in Week 17. Brady's QBR: 113.7
Week 9 Giants: 24-20. Avenged: TBD.
Total Record: 10-2
Brady's average QBR Scores:
Career QBR: 95.3
Same Season Revenge QBR: 100.8
Same Season Revenge Victory QBR: 105.6
Same Season Revenge Loss QBR: 76.75
The questions lies in if the Giants have Brady's number. Here are some facts from Brady's Revenge Games:
Teams the Brady-led Patriots have lost to in consecutive games:
Denver Broncos - '01, '02
San Diego Chargers - '02, '05
Denver Broncos - '05, '05, '06, '09
Indianapolis Colts - '05, '06, '06
New York Giants - '07, '11
As you can see, the Patriots are pretty good at not losing to the same team twice, especially not in the same season. The only two teams to beat the Patriots twice in one season are the '05 Broncos and the '06 Colts and they managed to string together four and three consecutive victories against the Patriots.
Brady's Statistics in Revenge Games:
Same Season Revenge Stat Line:
10-2 Record (0.833)
100.8 QBR
63.9% Completion Rate
238.1 Yards/Game (note: dragged down from his first two seasons. Has broken the 300 yard mark in past three same-season revenge games.)
1.75 TD/Game
0.417 INT/Game
Multi Season Revenge Stat Line:
28-8 Record (0.778)
96.6 QBR
63.7% Completion Rate
238.4 Yards/Game
1.75 TD/Game
0.583 INT/Game
Career State Line:
140-42 Record (0.769)
95.3 QBR
63.7% Completion Rate
247.2 Yards/Game
1.85 TD/Game
0.736 INT/Game
What can we learn from these numbers?
Record: Brady's record in same-season revenge game is above his regular season record. While it's a small sample, the Patriots definitely have a little more success when playing a team after losing the first round.
QBR: Again, Brady's QBR is slightly above his career numbers.
Completion %: Fairly consistent. Brady is hitting the same percentage of throws.
Yards/Game: These numbers actually drop because 25% of Brady's revenge victories came during his first season as a starter and he was more of a complementary piece during that season. In recent times, he's exploded in the rematch.
TD/Game: Fairly consistent, like the Completion %.
INT/Game: Probably the most important factor is the turnovers. Brady turns the ball over much less (almost half as much) in the rematch. This is a crucial factor as turnovers are one of the leading indicators of victories.
---
Are Brady and Belichick, the Avengers, a myth? If we're looking at a season-to-season level, then yes, I don't think the '07 season will have any impact on the success of the '11 team. However, I do think there's some magic in the same season revenge games. Limiting turnovers is crucial and, after handing over the ball four times in the first round, the Patriots cannot and, hopefully, will not do the Giants any favors with easy field position.
The Giants are the only team with an active multi-game win streak against the Patriots. The Patriots have beaten the Broncos (x2, the same number as their multi-game streaks), the Chargers, and the Colts during this Redeem Season, the only three teams to hold multi-game win streaks against Brady and Belichick.
Hopefully the Patriots can end one more streak this season.
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It'll be easier to get revenge
without Gary Guyton and James Ihedigbo trying to cover receivers between the numbers.
It is what it is
Oh, along with Sergio Brown and Tracy White.
It is what it is
Our D is totally different from week 9
Instead of Ihedigbo and Brown, it’s Ihedigbo/McCourty/Moore/Chung/Brown
Instead of McCourty and Arrington, it’s McCourty/Arrington/Moore/Jones/Edelman
Instead of Tracy White/Guyton we have Fletcher/Spikes/Ninko/Mayo/Anderson
We’ve moved from 4-3 and Fat Albert to 3-4 with Anderson off the edge.
Lakers and Patriots forever.
We had Chung until the last drive.
It is what it is
Really had Chung until the Brown PI...
…and then he went back on the field.
by Richard Hill on Jan 31, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
and that was the drive that killed us, no?
Lakers and Patriots forever.
Yep.
Really the “play” that killed the team. Brown was only on for the PI play.
by Richard Hill on Feb 1, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Wish I knew what happened with Gary Guyton this year
He filled in with a pretty good effort in the Dallas game, when Mayo left with a knee injury. After that, he seemed to go downhill until he has pretty much disappeared. It’s hard to believe he got that bad so quickly and I wish I knew what happened.
Keep the faith!
I think you could say the other guys playing at a high-level pretty much ended his playing time
by Yardpenalty.com on Jan 31, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
That...
…and he was pretty abysmal at the beginning of the season. Couldn’t cover a thing. His issue is that he plays the same role as Mayo, and:
Mayo – Spikes > Guyton – Mayo. It’s like an A+ and A player > B and B+ player. Not in the cards.
by Richard Hill on Jan 31, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
The day Guyton becomes a B player…
by quadruple option on Jan 31, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
He had definitely been a B player in the past.
This season? Extreme drop off.
by Richard Hill on Feb 1, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Hopefully the pats are ready. Their games with nyg have been close as of late, and im thinking we have enough to get over the edge this time. as long as brady does his job we will be fine.
by Kris_Risk on Jan 31, 2012 8:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
You forgot about the Jets playoff win in 2010.
The only teams to beat the Pats twice in one season were the ’05 Broncos, the ’06 Colts—AND the Jets in 2010. Kinda made that 45-3 revenge victory ring hollow. However, the two Jets games this year were sweet as can be!
THAT IS A HEALTHY STATLINE RIGHT THERE
It would be nice if Tom could get his 3rd SB MVP award and become ,I think only to be with Montana for that record?
by Yardpenalty.com on Jan 31, 2012 10:11 PM EST reply actions
Not that he needs any more motivation...
but tom brady is getting absolutely no respect. because he didn’t play great against the ravens, respected analysts are saying eli is better than tom, unanimously. are you kidding me? it’s really shocking to me. i hope brady throws down one of his greatest performances of all time and shows why he’s tom brady, and eli is just stepping out of his older brother’s shadow. dont get me wrong, eli is playing great. but he is not tom brady.
The whole coverage of this Super Bowl is stunning me...
Now maybe it is just the coverage I have seen (and I will admit that I tend to hide from it because of what i have heard and seen when I have- I might be one of few fans with their team in the Super Bowl who is actually watching less sports programming than usual), or my hatred of the Giants (Before I was a Pats fan, I grew up rooting for the Eagles, so lots of practice hating the G-Men), but the analysis does seem really lopsided. If I was a casual football fan watching it or hearing it, I would think that it was Eli and not Tom who had three Super Bowl Rings. I really hope that this whole team comes out and gives a performance for the ages- Tom is not the only one getting dis-respected.
And while I will concede that the Patriots got lucky (no other choice but to) in winning the AFC title game, the Giants got their breaks too- I seem to recall a fumble setting them up practically in their red zone to hit the game winning field goal, the Packers turning over the ball (and dropping it) an uncharacteristic number of times, and the Falcons putting on a crap offensive performance. They are not Goliath.
But then again… the last time the Media liked them, the Pats lost… so maybe they don’t even need the love- and Belichick probably welcomes the ready made bulletin board material.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
Agreed.
While the Giants didn’t “stumble” into the Super Bowl, they’ve definitely had their fair share of breaks to not consider it dominant.
Last 5 game aggregate scores (past 5 wins for both teams):
Patriots: 185-98 [87 differential] (3 games scoring 40+ points)
Giants: 141-67 [74 differential] (allowed 20+ points only once)
by Richard Hill on Jan 31, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Just out of curiosity (and I am going to admit to laziness here)- how many games did the Patriots hold their opponents under 20, and how many games did the Giants score over 40?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
Pats last five games points scored against
week 15 – 23
week 16 – 24
week 17 – 21
DEN – 10
BAL – 20
Granted the competition was less than great until the Ravens game, and the offenses they played like BUF, MIA, DEN are bad, they did their job.
Giants last five games: 0 games scored more than 40, actual scores:
week 16 – 28
week 17 – 31
ATL – 24
GB – 37
SF – 20
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
I am trying to- I am finding the less time I spent watching ESPN, the more I like it.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
absolutely
and I have to check the guide before flipping to NFLN too – It’s Pats losing to Giants 24/7
Keep the faith!
Eh... NY is already eating its own
The headlines already declared Eli the best QB in Giants’ history. Before the Super Bowl.
Keep the faith!
As long as it's just GIANTS history...
… I’m fine with it. After all, who have the gnats had as good QBs?
"I'm a well conditioned athlete. I don't need oxygen" Vince Wilfork
a couple
YA Tittle, Phil Simms, but for my money the best ever was Hoss. Just kidding but I did always like Hosstetler
by AverageJoeEveryman on Feb 1, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
The list is short for all teams.
Not every franchise has a QB history like SF, DAL, GB.
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
Usually
the good Pats teams rarely play 2 bad back to back games, and especially usually, Brady almost never plays back to back bad games. You could argue the Pats team didn’t play a bad game last week. You could even argue that Brady actually played pretty well, despite a couple of bad throws, but of course, by his own admission, “he pretty much sucked”. So, I am certainly expecting TB to atone for his spotty play, and play like a champion on Sunday. Obviously the Giants D, which has really been playing well, will have something to say about that. But i like our O-line in this game, and the question of Gronk is the only thing that worries me. The Giants have been playing very well, and they have also taken advantage of some balls bouncing their way. So, Tb, and anyone else in a pats uni not giving them any is going to be a big reason why we win or lose. I also have a lot of trust in this coaching staff, and I can’t wait to see how we attack New York, and how our D schemes it up.
I don’t know how much I would buy that Brady played well- while he may not have “sucked”, he was pretty clearly the worst qb in championship weekend- far from what I would have expected from him.
Keith Law has a saying about pitchers, that there are three things that they can do to help their cause, miss bats, don’t walk people, and induce ground balls. I have expanded this to quarterbacks their three things are, find and hit the open man, protect the ball (both avoiding fumbles and interceptions), and avoid the sack. While Brady did a pretty good job of avoiding negative plays off sacks, he missed a wide open Gronk, and threw several other ill advised passes that resulted in interceptions (not all of which counted). Flacco played a better game than him- everywhere except where it counted.
None of this is to say that I don’t expect Brady to play much better this week- I totally do. The Giants and Patriots have both been a combination of lucky and good this year, and I tend to believe that the matchup is fairly even. This game could completely come down to the team who makes fewer costly errors OR the team that has the ball last.
I like this team- and I love the attitude they are taking about this game- I love Belichick showing a calm, happy side, and the fact that this team is behaving humbly- yes, Brady said what he said at the pep rally, but by and large, they are not giving the Giants anything to put on their bulletin board.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
What Brady said
was perfectly in line. What did they expect? for him to offer the fans no hope of a win? I’m glad he wasn’t cocky enough to “guarantee” a win but I have no problems with “hopefully”
"I'm a well conditioned athlete. I don't need oxygen" Vince Wilfork
and really
Alex Smith was far worse than Brady in Championship Weekend.
by AverageJoeEveryman on Feb 1, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Not so fast...
Brady: 22/36 (61.1% completion rate), 234 yards (10.64 yards per completion) 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions
Smith: 12/26 (46.15% completion rate), 196 yards (16.33 yards per completion), 2 TD’s, 0 interceptions.
While completion percentage is important, as are total yards, protecting the ball is vital. I believe by quarterback rating, Smith had a better day than Brady even with the lower completion percentage.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
I'm not trying ot make a real strong argument for Brady playing well
because the mistakes were egregious, especially the last iNT. However, I am also not going to dismiss the fact that he led the Pats on 5 scoring drives, against one of the best D’s in the league, who were playing pass all the way,. and playing it well. Pats receivers had to work for every inch they got that day. And when it counted, Brady led the charge to take back the lead in the 4th quarter, oh yeah it was the game winning drive. Yes, a 4th quarter comeback win.
So, can’t say he fully sucked, just a couple of poor throws, and the margin of error in the playoffs is pretty slim. Had the Ravens scored, the story would have been Brady’s pick giving the game away, and rightfully so, but as I said, I am glad he got those out of the way. he will play very, very well, on Sunday.
When two evenly matched teams
play for the second time in a season, the team that lost the first time has an advantage in x’s and o’s preparation, and motivation IMO.
I don’t know the historical numbers but from what I have seen the team that lost the first time often wins the second time, especially in big games. So many examples I could site, Pats Rams 2001, Pats Steelers 2004, Giants Niners Bills 1990, Giants Cowboys Packers Pats 2007, Giants Niners Packers 2011.
Pats over Giants 2011? We will see….
The truth. The REAL voice of reason
it happened 4 years ago
The game in November was lost on the 4 turnovers on offense not because the defense failed to hold the lead in the last minute
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about being AFC Champs?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
by freeland1787 on Feb 1, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Analysts are stupid...
They conveniently forget that even Manning through two SURE interceptions in the game against the 49ers — in fact, I would argue that BOTH of the plays I’m thinking of were far worse throws and decisions than the ones Brady made against the Ravens.
The only reason we’re not hearing about them is because the throws were so bad that two 49ers (on both plays) had an easy shot at an interception, ended up knocking each other out, and the ball falling incomplete.
by CanadianPatriotsFan on Feb 1, 2012 8:43 AM EST reply actions
They did that twice in the same game
Ran into each other. The most bizarre thing ever.
Keep the faith!
the lack of respect for brady is becoming humorous
listening to sportsradio this morning, they basically said if brady loses this game he is no longer in the “pantheon” of great quarterbacks. this game will define his legacy, etc. etc. and if eli wins, it puts him at the top for the moment.
sheesh, talk about living in the moment. honestly, i love it. keep doubting brady. as all of us pats fans know, when brady’s doubted, he tends to come through with fire.
Remember the last time the other team's QB got talked up all week?
Brady threw for 6 TDs. You know all the Eli talk is driving him nuts. I expect him to be at the very top of his game, this week.
by nbradley07 on Feb 1, 2012 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If the Patriots absolutely could not make it for some reason
At least at the time being, I’d definitely be all for Denver going to the Superbowl, just because I think it would be absolutely HILARIOUS listening to the media during the coverage week.
by indy pats fan on Feb 1, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent point
It’s really been the strangest season I can recall in recent memory. The 13-3 #1 seed in the AFC has pretty much flown under the radar the entire way through. Really peculiar.
Can I Scream?
agreed
there was an 8 minute video that debated whether or not brady was overrated and the same discussion took place on espn first take. ridiculous. i have a friend that likes the jets and as much as he hates brady, he even agreed with me.
Rich
I’m confused as to how you came up with the 28-8 record for multi-season revenge games. It looks like there are 7 losses if you add up the consecutive loses under the blurb titled “Teams the Brady-led Patriots have lost to in consecutive games”
What is the 8th loss?
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