How much will Brandon Lloyd cost the Patriots?
by Panimal4422 on Feb 17, 2012 3:34 PM EST
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PrintThere has been a lot of talk recently about a Brandon Lloyd to N.E. connection and rightfully so. Lloyd has said that he's tied to McDaniels because only Josh McD has been able to get production out of B. Lloyd. Brandon credits his success to Josh's ability to utilize the shifty WR on all levels of the Offense and in a myriad of Offensive sets. This sounds like a match made in heaven but there's another side to this story.
That other side is the fact that Tom Condon is B. Lloyd's agent. Condon is one of the best agents in the NFL. He represents some big names and players love him because he's damn good at his job. The Patriots hate him because he's damn good at his job. Most of us know that the Pats have not dealt with Condon since the Ben Watson fallout of 2004, so one can imagine just how volatile the B. Lloyd contract negotiations could become.
To the agent's credit he's offered an olive branch of sorts by praising both the Patriots front-office and his own ruthless, wildly successful negotiating skills. He's made it clear that he's willing to let bygones be bygones and he'll do whatever it takes to put his client in the best situation (though he expects that B. Lloyd will be a highly desired WR in the open market, go figure).
My question to all the Pats fans out there is how much is Brandon Lloyd worth? My take after the jump.
I've done a bit of research on this issue and I've got what I hope is good news. If you head over to rotoworld and start digging up some contracts of WR's like Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Roddy White and Greg Jennings, you'll be pleasantly surprised to see that even the elite WR's don't make more than ~$9million a year (on average, back-loaded contracts like Larry Fitz's are obvious exceptions).
Now, I don't think anyone will claim that Brandon Lloyd is anywhere near as good as either Johnson so it doesn't make much sense for Lloyd to demand anywhere near $9million a year ( with ~%80 of the gross value of the contract guaranteed like the contract Andre Johnson has earned himself).
To me, a 30 year old WR who had zero success for 7 years in the NFL until your (the Pats) current O-Coordinator got a hold of him, that guy is probably worth $4-6million per year for 3-4 years with ~%60-%70 of the gross value of the contract guaranteed. It would be wise for the Patriots to offer some incentive based bonuses and some roster/workout bonuses later in the deal to ensure B. Lloyd's commitment to success. This allows the Pats to offer a bigger deal that won't offend B. Lloyd but also offers them the latitude to move on from the 30+ year old WR should he not perform up to his contract's value.
What do you guys (and ladies) think?
The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.
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3-6 million seems good
Lloyd has the potential to be a very good borderline elite WR. Having him as a 4th option behind H-bomb Gronk and Welker would put this O over the top, imo. If he can reproduce what he did in 2010 he becomes the #1 threat for opposing defenses. Which makes Gronk even more dangerous and makes Hernandez borderline unstoppable because he’s now getting singled up every play.
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
I'd be happier with less guaranteed money and more easily hit incentive type bonuses.
Incentives that he wouldn’t have to get over 5 catches a game to make. He has disappeared in offenses before.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 17, 2012 5:33 PM EST reply actions
Agreed....another application of this idea is....
Wes Welker.
I can’t see Welker demanding more than $6-7 million a year, that is at the end of the day when all the negotiating is said and done. You could argue his SKILL SET isn’t worth that much money but his PRODUCTION and EXPERIENCE IN THE SYSTEM warrants an extra $2million a year.
If Welker wants to get hard nosed then I think the Pats will either tag him or possibly walk away altogether….Danny Amendola is a RFA and between he and Edelman, and the addition of at least 1 WR in Free-Agency, that could make up for Wes Welker…as much as I love Wes Welker, he’s a slot receiver, not a #1WR.
completely agree
love wes but he is no aj/cj. not in age and nowhere near in skill level. I however would love him for 5-6 mil a year, if we have to replace him however we would be fine with lloyd replacing him, no need for amendola. then we would go get a bowe or vjax on the other side for the money that wes is demanding. i would have no probs with that. love ya welker, but at 9 million im looking elsewhere, n there is nothing wrong with that. call us ruthless, unprofessional, ungrateful. dont care. its a business. i dont mind when players who are worth more sit out and demand more (vic cruz comes to mind for next year), but also dont mind teams looking out for themselves.
...and the belittleing Wes with
backhanded compliments never stops.
1500+ yards 120+ catches and 9TD(most by a WR in the AFC BTW. "But he is “only” a slot receiver. " No. He is a very productive who plays an elite level since 2007. And he is the player who keeps your drives alive. He helped the team without elite RBs sustain long drives. He was the ultimate safety blanket for Brady (and Cassel).
4 years with 1000+ yards and 110+ catches, give me one “#1WR” who did more. Oh, wait! There is none. But they can say they #1WRs. They are faster, bigger, more athletic..and less productive. I think people do not understand what a great talent Welker is, because it’s not a flat run or big jump they can translate easily.
by frogfromthemud on Feb 19, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Totally, totally agree.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
He's nowhere near AJ/CJ in skill level????
What exactly are their skills? They just run really fast then jump really high. They’re beasts for sure but I’ve never heard anyone say they’re more skilled than Wes Welker….
Andre Johnson? Calvin Johnson?
They have amazing hands, can run any route, run really fast, jump really high, and are a threat all over the field.
Compared to welker, they both beat him in virtually every category aside from quickness. No disrespect to welker, but it is what it is.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
I think his point isn't that they aren't more athletic
His point is that Welker is at a huge disadvantage when it relates to their physical attributes, but that he’s so talented that he can keep right up with them in production. Not a knock on them saying they’re only that good because of their natural born size/athleticism or that Welker isn’t athletic or anything. Just that Welker shouldn’t be considered less skilled when he’s just as elite of a player despite lacking the measurables that they have.
by indy pats fan on Feb 20, 2012 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
But he isn't as elite.
Yes he had great numbers this year, but he DOES have Brady. I think if Brady had either AJ or CJ, their numbers would be unimaginable (maybe slightly less than 07 Moss…. who knows).
But perhaps this is early morning banter for my head….. I understand what you mean. What welker has been able to accomplish despite his size/athleticism is amazing. He puts up great numbers. But this was a career year for him. He will not put up these kinds of numbers again. At least I am sure of this. In terms of yards and TDs, he will be dwarfed by AJ or CJ, but he will be up there in terms of catches.
I am not yet ready to have Welker any where near AJ or CJ. Lets see if he happens to put up production as close as he did in 2011 next season. Then I will consider it. For now though, he is not on the same level.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
Arguably, he has put up similar numbers
as this year, in all his previous years with us (excluding 2010 when he was still working his way back from the knee). In 2009 he had one more catch in two extra games (and one of those games was the Houston game where he got injured). He had more yards and TDs this year, yes, but overall he’s been pretty consistent.
I dont see what more Welker has to do to be proclaimed an “elite” receiver when every year all he does is get open, catch more balls than anyone else, and move the chains. Isn’t that what a receiver is supposed to do? Well he does it at a better rate than damn near anyone else in the business.
He is elite.
But not on the same level as AJ or CJ. Those two can do more than him, which make them more dangerous. that is all.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
He is elite
He had 111 catches and 1000+ yards with Matt Cassel. And in 2009 when Brady returned Welker was basically our offense. He is elite talent, but you have to understand the game more than the “running fast and jumping high” part. Welker is unique, he reformed his position and people do not even understand how much.
One of Welker’s biggest asset (but you can not measure, so many just ignores it), his extraordinary football brain. He can recognize patterns on the run in traffic in a split second the same way as Brady does in the pocket. That is a unique ability and in many ways a lot bigger talent than a fast 40. He thinks faster than most guys. And it is a HUGE talent. And Welker is probably the best in the NFL.
by frogfromthemud on Feb 20, 2012 8:03 AM EST up reply actions
apples and oranges
Wes is an integral part of the Pats. I don’t know if we could ask more of him, he takes a savage beating. They’ll sign him one way or another.
Come see the violence inherent in the system, help help I'm being repressed.
by sweetjesusihatethejets on Feb 20, 2012 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
I agree he is elite.
But not on the same level as AJ or CJ. Those two can do more than him, which make them more dangerous. that is all.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
They're all recievers but it's a different position
and what Welker does is just as valuable as AJ or CJ.
Keep the faith!
Valuable is a tricky word.
he is very valuable for us. And for everyone in the league. Everyone would like to have a Welker.
But as you say, its a different position I suppose. So we can’t really comp[are Welker to AJ or CJ.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
lets just say that wes is elite true
and mayyyybeee he can produce at their levels. however he is not as valuable. he does not stretch the defense. cj would absolutely change the way defenses play against us. safeties would be deeper, we would have more success running, our tes would have an easier time as well. say what you want, defenses will never fear nor gameplan for wes as they do for aj n cj. hate to ever agree with jacobs but that is a big play outfit. thats how defenses feel. love welker but he doesnt add the other dimension that aj n cj do. if u dont see that then that is fine. agree to disagree.
What I see is
defenses having to still double wes welker underneath though. And he can still get great stats. He does manipulate the defense. Just not in the same way that AJ or CJ does. They can stretch the defense, something Wes cannot do of course.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
Well the D can't just single Welker all day
but they would do it if we had say AJ Green on the other side, because you would rather have Wes rack up the recs and YAC then have AJ Green creates huge plays and that end drives in 6 pts for the offense. It’s different manipulation, but one is certainly more dangerous for a defense than the other, that’s why I don’t think teams are going to blow Welker away with an offer.
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
True-ish.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
Really it comes down to death by a thousand cuts with Welker.
Or death by decapitation with the deep threat guys.
One is more suited against one defense and the other is more suited to a different defense.
Individually, you can take all ofthose receivers out of games – Wes is actually one of the more consistent ones, but teams are often willing to give up some yards underneath. You need multiple viable threats. The more varied the threats the better.
If we’re trying to run a ball control offense then you only want to throw deep when it’s open. If you want a quick strike offense, then you go deep often, even if it means picks.
We really don’t know how effective Welker would be deep, because they seldom send him deep. Likewise they don’t throw at AJ and CJ in front of the linebackers.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
As the Greek philosopher Mediocrites once said, "Eh, it's good enough."
by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 23, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
First of all
You can’t really compare the type of receiver Wes is to either of those guys. He’s a slot receiver, and utilized in a completely different way. Would you compare Brandon Spikes and Devin McCourty? I mean, they both play on the defensive side of the ball, right?
For the same reason Wes isn’t asked to run a go-route outside the numbers each play, Andre Johnson/Calvin Johnson wouldn’t be ask to hawk the inside of the field and take a beating each play to maintain possessions. It’s two completely different skill sets for two completely different types of receivers.
Can I Scream?
Spikes and McCourty don't play the same positions, so yes, I can compare Wes to CJ and AJ
because they are both WRs.
in any case, I do agree with you in the sense that they are different types of players.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
agreed
the reason they are not asked to go in the middle of the field is not AT ALL because they cant. its because they can do more. trust me they can run those 5 yard routes as well as wes, but they can also make the defense double and triple them so that anyone can make that five yard grab, all the while still being viable receiving options even when doubled.
A career year for Welker? A little bit, maybe.
He has one more TD than 2007 and two more than last year – coming off a knee injury. That’s not a huge improvement.
Lets try catches – no he had 123 in 2009, that’s 1 more than this year. He also had 111 catches for 1165 yards and 3 TDs under Cassel. So the Brady throwing to him is BS.
Yards? Ok, he had 221 yards more than 2009 (his second best year), but 99 of those came on one play.
Seriously, he was on fire in 2009, then got side-tracked by an injury, and now he’s back exactly where he was. There’s no reason to believe he couldn’t be as good in 2012 barring injury.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
As the Greek philosopher Mediocrites once said, "Eh, it's good enough."
by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 20, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah, he only played 14 games in 2009. Really more like 13.
With those two extra games, he’d have blown this years numbers away.
The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
As the Greek philosopher Mediocrites once said, "Eh, it's good enough."
by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 20, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
He is elite.
But not on the same level as AJ or CJ. Those two can do more than him, which make them more dangerous. that is all.
So the Brady throwing to him is BS.
Agreed. I made a mistake there. :)
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
But they HAVEN'T done "more than him".
You might argue that they have the ‘potential’ to do more. But they haven’t, really.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Those guys don't have Brady either throwing to them.
Schaub is decent, and Stafford is very good when he isn’t getting hit. Sometimes you have to look past the stats, and look at the players themselves. Athletically, skill wise, and what they can do ALL over the field, is what puts them much past welker. Thats what I mean by “doing more than him.”
Welker can’t stretch the field. They can. They are more of a threat, and it would be understandable if they garnered more attention then welker does.
Also want to make it clear that AJ and CJ do in fact, consistently do more than welker does. Not only are they a threat everywhere on the field but:
If you look at welker back to back to back years: http://www.nfl.com/player/weswelker/2505790/profile
Andre had those as well: http://www.nfl.com/player/andrejohnson/2505551/profile
Only better numbers (aside from catches which welker beats. But yards and TDs Andre beats welker).
then you got Calvin Johnson. Admittingly, he doesn’t get as much receptions, but he makes them up for in yards. He hasn’t had 3 in a row 1000 yard seasons yet, but he will probably get that next year. Nor does he have 100 catches. But damn. he makes that up for yards, and TD (2 years in a row with 10+ TDs. 3/5 years with 10+ TDs. Hot damn!).
Here’s Calvin: http://www.nfl.com/player/calvinjohnson/2495647/profile
So overall, yeah, they have done a little bit more than Welker stats wise. Couple with the fact that they are a threat everywhere in the field, and I find it hard to believe that AJ or CJ are not better than welker. He is up there? Oh yeah no question. But he is not AJ or CJ.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
The "don't have Brady" qualifier was ruled out up above
when it was noted that Welker put up identical numbers in 2008 with Cassell.
Since escaping the wasteland that was Miami and joining the Patriots, Welker has posted 554 catches for 6105 yds over 5 years. That’s 111 catches and 1221 yds per season. Very impressively consistent too when you allow for the injury that caused 2010 to be ‘down’.
Ignoring last year’s injury shortened season, AJ has averaged 84 catches and 1145 yds per season. That’s fewer yards as well as catches.
Yes, that does include a couple of seasons where AJ was injured, but the same is true of Welker’s sample (and I dropped last year from AJ’s). ‘Just trying to get a sense of their sustained output. At some level, AJ’s misfortunate injury history has to be considered part of what you get with him.
CJ has averaged 73 catches and 1174 yds per season. Again, fewer catches and yards than Welker.
I am very careful here to not say that Welker is ‘better’ than AJ or CJ. But he has ‘done more’ over the last 5 years than they have.
The only thing these guys have over Welker is the deep ball. But even while playing primarily within 20 yds of the line of scrimmage, Welker has been consistently moving the line of scrimmage more than either of these guys over the last 5 years. Not just in catches (which translates to more 1st downs) but also in yardage.
Saying that AJ & CJ also ‘run underneath routes’ does not mean that they run them well – and certainly not remotely as well as Welker does. Otherwise we might as well say that Welker runs the deep route, too – even if not as well.
Oddly, when Welker was still with Miami, they sent him deep more – he averaged 15 yds per catch in his first season there.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
by mmmmm on Feb 22, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Andre seemed to be injured in 07 as well.
Looking at all their years where they started for the majority of their years, its clear that AJ trumps welker in every category except catches. CJ trumps welker in TDs, band may soon be putting up consistent 1300 yard seasons.
But factoring injury for all of them, Welker put up close to to the same production. But does that really mean that he is just as good as they are? No, it does not. They can do thing that Welker cannot do. And yes, they do run underneath routes well. Not amazing like welker, but they can run them pretty damn well. When it comes to downfield though? Like past 20 yards? Welker is no where near as good as they are. NOt taking anything away from Welker. After all, its not his job to go deep all the time. I’m an objective kind of guy. But I’m just laying out what a WRs overall talent and limitations are. AJ and CJ do not have limitations. They can do virtually anything. Welker has his limitations, but with what he can do, he does better than anyone in the league.
But that doesn’t make him better than those two. Perhaps he has done about the same when you factor in seasons with injuries. But when healthy? AJ and CJ can do much, much more. Stats may not say it as plain as day (for they are close), but I’m not just talking about stats here.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
"he had great numbers this year" ... yes ...
and EVERY year that he’s played in a Patriot’s uniform …
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
amazing hands, speed, high leaping ability...
All sound like PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES to me, not skill. But my bad, I thought he was talking about Vincent Jackson, not Andre Johnson (for some stupid reason). Andre Johnson is as skilled as he is talented, but guys like CJ and VJ run sloppy routes and aren’t fundamentally as sound as Wes Welker.
VJ yes, but CJ
is a great route runner.
Amazing hands ARE a skill set. As DHB about that his first 3 years. For speed, its important to know HOW to utilize your speed. Moss did this very well. He’ll run his route, do a fake, then go blazing fast and burn the corner. The idea of deception which he did very well. As for leaping ability, its important to know WHEN to leap in the air and WHICH direction to go to (if you know what I mean), as well as your concentration. Perhaps it is a physical attribute, but its more than just jumping in the air, and its something you get better at.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
CJ is not a great route runner
I watched 75% of the Lions games this year and I can safely say that he is a mediocre route runner. He gets by quite a bit by his size and agility. Stafford would often just throw it up high in his direction and he would just out jump the defender.
He runs slants, go routes, comeback routes, outside routes, across the field routes
I think he is better than you give him credit for.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
You're right sabout that. But it dies mean that he can run them though.
What makes you think he is a not a good route runner? You have watched more Lions games then I have after all. Is he like Ocho in terms of running routes in our offense?
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
They're not very crisp
I see exactly what Oughat is saying. He doesn’t run tight enough routes to really separate himself from the defender like a more “traditional” WR would.
What nullifies this, however, is his immense size and agility once the ball is in the air that allows him to out-muscle and out-leap his defender 99% of the time.
Can I Scream?
This
Basically he isn’t the best at selling routes. Any decent CB can stick with him. The problem is even if you are in position that doesn’t mean he isn’t coming down with a well thrown ball the majority of the time. When he gets a little older or if he sustains a leg injury that robs him of a little speed or leaping ability his production is going to drop or at least that is my very unqualified opinion.
I should note that I mean his skills as a receiver will probably age a little quicker than other guys since he gets by on his athleticism right now. Obviously everyone that gets older or injured will produce less on the field.
Perhaps he'll become a better route runner over thea years. ;)
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
lols
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
physical attributes, skill, whatever.
Bottom line is they are animal. there are many 4.3 wrs, many tall wrs, many wrs who can jump, and many who can do all three. But not many that are great football players to the degree that cj and aj are. they have incredible body control. and if you dont get wide open with ur route but u catch it just as high percentage of a time, does it matter? would you rather a wide open wes dropping that bad throw brady threw him in the super bowl, or a covered cj making that catch look easy? gimme a break man. they are not in the same class. aj and cj are in a class of their own. maybe u can put fitz there. but very few others. definitely not wes. N i love wes trust me. but nine million? thats a lot of money. id prefer we trade him for a first if thats what it costs.
an upgrade at that position is a must
Lloyd is one of many candidates- BB should draft and sign a WR and the same for a safety
Tedy Bruschi- "How do we feel about being AFC Champs?"
Team- "Aww Yeah!!!"
How much is not dealing with Condon worth?
Condon is not an essential part of the deal. So even if the Patriots might be able to get Lloyd for a fair price, that does not resolve the Condon question. The Patriots could simply say to Lloyd, “if you want any chance of playing for us, you’ll have to switch agents”, and then let the chips fall where they may. So the Patriots have two questions they will need to answer: (1) How much is Lloyd worth and (2) how much is the principal of not dealing with Condon worth. Lloyd will similarly have two questions to answer: (1) How much is playing for the McDaniel and the Patriots worth and (2) how much is having Condon as my agent worth? If a deal is going to be worked out, something will have to give, but its not clear if the Patriots or Lloyd will be the party that has to do the giving.
May not be that much of a problem
depending on how close Lloyd and the pats are to begin with. If they’re close and Condon stands in the way, Lloyd can tell him to butt out. If they’re far apart, then he might be a problem, only because Lloyd will already be dissatisfied with the offer and Condon can reinforce his negativity.
by poindexterregan on Feb 17, 2012 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
My original point was this;
Condon has made the first concession, he flat out said that neither side may like the other but both sides are accomplished negotiators, hence there’s no reason they can’t come together and negotiate a contract that works for both sides.
I think Condon is well aware that his client may not get a ton of looks from other teams because he’s never been successful without Josh McDaniels and he’s 30 years old. Condon knows that the Patriots are the best fit for Lloyd. This is especially true if he ever wants to sign a 2nd contract when he’s 33 or 34 like Reggie Wayne is trying to do now, it would be very wise to sign with the Pats and have huge success with TB, BB and Josh McD.
The Pats will likely be well aware of this and despite Condon’s best efforts a deal in the $4.5-$5.5million a year range is a very good deal for both sides.
I'm not sure
I like Lloyd as a player, but 4.5 million for a 30+ WR who does not possess a skillset much different from Branch? Who has had several seasons cut short to injury? He had a great year with McD in 2010, but that was two years ago. When Wide Receivers fall off a cliff, they fall of a cliff. Look at Moss. Again, he is an interesting pickup, but the willingness to hand over a 5 million per multiyear deal to a player with his history is honestly confusing me. I’d rather get a younger, more explosive player for a little more.
Oklahoma State will beat LSU in the National Title game by more than 7 points.
Well...
The first thing I’d say is that Brandon Lloyd’s skill set is indeed much different than what D. Branch brings to the table. Branch is far from a spring chicken and it’s pretty clear that he’s on his last legs. Both players have had injury concerns but it’s pretty far off base to claim that Lloyd doesn’t offer a significant upgrade over Branch.
Lloyd would very likely eclipse 80 receptions and 1,000 yds (with 8-10 TD’s) if he were to play here in New England. You’ve got to remember that Tim Tebow and that Broncos Offense is not even remotely comparable to Tom Brady and his weapons, and neither is St. Louis’ Offense with Sam Bradford (who had no protection and no other receiving threats).
Let’s put it this way, you can keep Ochocinco for 4.5million and let’s say you give Branch another 2million, that’s 6.5 million for minimal return……Why not invest 4-6 million in someone like Lloyd (I’ll take Reggie Wayne too/instead) who is all but guaranteed to surpass the Branch-Ocho combination?
Lloyd had Orton and then went to Bradford in st. louis.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
doubt
lloyd would get that many receptions with all the other options Brady has. I’d rather get Meachem or Robinson.
by poindexterregan on Feb 18, 2012 12:53 AM EST up reply actions
No reason...
Wes Welker can catch 100 balls, Gronk can have 80 and Lloyd can replace what little production Ocho and Branch offered the team….I think 80 is just about right, we’re not talking about the Pats Offense being at the same level of production either, having Lloyd is changing the whole dynamic of the Offense, a true WR, not just a slot WR.
Considering that Meachem and Robinson could likely get a similar contract, doesn’t the guy who has played in the OC’s system and flourished make more sense???
by Panimal4422 on Feb 18, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Lloyd.....
I’d pass on Lloyd,hopefully the Saints will let Meachem walk.Think he would fit in fine,plus 3 years younger.
If anything...
The fact that Meachem is 3 years younger might make him more costly, but if your argument is that Meachem hasn’t been very successful in a wide open aerial attack with Drew Brees and that somehow makes him a better fit, not so sure, does it make him less costly, probably.
by Panimal4422 on Feb 18, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Meachem....
Meachem is a great fit in our offense. He’s had plenty of success also with the Saints style of play. I’m not sure I understand your point? Saints aren’t going to be able to pay all the free agents they have and I think he’ll be set to walk,seeing that they will probably stick with Colston. He’s got height,speed,good route runner and pretty damn good hands.
Brandon Lloyd is a
versatile reciever. Josh had him line up at different reciever positions. He is a real good fit for the Pats. Pats like to use a lot of different look on offense to get a mismatch against their opponent. Lloyd will not have much confidence playing on a team that is not coached by McDaniels. He will sign for less to play with the Pats. I would guess that the Pats could sign Lloyd to four years twenty million. Brandon Lloyd would give the Pats a deep threat down the sidelines that could help open the middle of the field for Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. I say sign him.
Mike Wallace is who we should target
Pittsburgh is already 10 mil over the cap. Get Wallace and we cannot be stopped, period
by Yardpenalty.com on Feb 18, 2012 10:13 AM EST reply actions
I agree
that Wallace would be the best reciever that the Pats would consider……might be too steep a price for a reciever that would have to share passes with Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez. Llody would not complain about sharing the ball with the elite recievers the Pats have on offense. He just wants to play on a McDaniels offense.
Adam Schefter said we can pay him up front money and it wont hurt the cap as much would think.
I am not sold on Lloyd’s overall value or his attitude. He would warrant just a bit less than Wallace under the new bargaining agreement. Honestly, I would love for us to keep Chad and draft a young WR. The 2007 Patriots are not as good as the 2011-12 Pats overall. If he did Randy Moss type things for us there would be no way anyone could beat us. Our defense is vastly improving and is one heavy hitter at Safety and a Pass Rusher from being at their peak.
by Yardpenalty.com on Feb 19, 2012 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Not sure if LLoyd would be happy with Pats
I remember reading the first article where Lloyd talked about playing for McDaniels. He said, and I paraphrase, I started producing because with McDaniels I was involved in most every play, it was fun. Other coaches had me running down field all the time, that was not fun and is boring………. We have a slot reciever, we have two TE’s that are used over the middle, short, and mid range. I hear everyone saying we need a verticle threat to open up the middle of the field for welker, Hondo, and Gronk, from what Lloyd said, I am not so sure he would be all that happy on our team,
Regarding Wallace, we must remember, Pittsburgh plays a very simple offense. Wallace may have a difficult time learing the Pats system. I am just not sure that either are guaranteed to put us over the top, so to speak. Just saying.
by FloridaPatsFan on Feb 19, 2012 3:38 AM EST up reply actions
"Other coaches had me running down field all the time,"
That’s an interesting comment. One of the big differences between the way Randy Moss was used under McDaniels versus under O’Brien is that under McD, Moss ran a wider variety of routes, including underneath and across the middle.
That was not with Gronk and ’Dez as competing options, of course, but we did have Welker and Watson.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
You do realize
the 07 patriots had the greatest offense of All-time with a top 5 defense and lost one game the entire yearright? I mean we can say the 2011 TEs and O-line is better but everything else is worse.
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
Think about this....
Is Mike Wallace as good as Randy Moss was in 2007???
No, he’s a deep threat and explosive after the catch but the last thing I want to see is Tom Brady holding onto the ball for extended periods of time as the deep threat gets behind Safeties.
TB has had issues with forcing the ball deep, it’s far from creating an unstoppable force on Offense just by adding a deep threat.
by Panimal4422 on Feb 18, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Basically...
Even if Pitt somehow fails to resign Wallace (which would be stupid), he’s going to want big money and you’re going to have give up at least 1 First-Round pick, probably 2 First-Rounders.
Welker is going to cost the Pats $6-7million, maybe $9.5million….that’s all of your cap space right there when you include rookie signings and re-signing 2-3 of our own Free-Agents. So now when your young guys come up for new deals, like Spikes, Chung, Vollmer, McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez etc….your left holding your wallet in Free-Agency because you’ve spent 15-18million a year on 2 WR’s.
All of that trouble and all you have a lesser version of what you had with Moss, a deep threat that’s too 1-dimensional, granted Wallace can get YAC but he’s primarily a deep threat.
Why not just save yourself the trouble, keep your cap space open, sign a better fit at WR at 1/2 the money and at 1/2 the length of the contract….to me it’s a no-brainer to sign Lloyd.
by Panimal4422 on Feb 18, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
no thanks on wallace
he’s overrated at this stage of his career.
And I say overrated simply because the amont of money you have to pony up isn’t worth it.
Lakers and Patriots forever.
If you're gonna spend big bucks on a FA
You’re better off with Mario Williams as opposed to a receiver. Receiver is a need but at the same time its not like our offense stunk last year
The odds
are at least two to one that the Pats sign Lloyd. He will not be the go to guy but he will make the Pats offense better with his abiliy to pose as a deep threat. Even if Brady does not go to him on a regular basis, he will generate more attention than what Branch or Ocho did this pasr year. Sign Lloyd!
I'd like to see Lloyd a Pat too
There are better receivers out there, but Lloyd is someone I have a high degree of confidence will fit into the Pats offense quickly given his history with McDaniels. He’s no Moss, but he has the ability to stretch the field. Opposing defenses would at least have to respect the long threat.
"If you know how to cheat, start now." - Earl Weaver
I just don't see it.
I know that Brandon has said that he want’s to play for McD where ever he goes. That’s all fine and good, and while he thinks that McD will get the best out of him, does he forget about Welker, Gronk, and Herndo? That automatically makes him target #4. He thinks that he’s a number 1 or 2 option which in NE he wouldn’t be. Also, from what I’ve heard, he isn’t exactly the best teammate to be around. Do you think he would actually conform to the Patriot way? Also, how long would it take him to get on Tom’s page, he knows McD but from what I know, he’s never had ANY football thrown to him from Tom.
Everyone wants to run Chad out of town, but he had a truncated off season and was still working on getting the chemistry with Tom. He did everything that we thought he wouldn’t do. He shut up, worked his ass off and didn’t bitch. I think if Chad works with Tom in the off-season (as long as he isn’t cut) he would give the team more value-add, then just rolling in another WR a year later. He has Tom’s confidence, he just needs to work on his timing.
Just some food for thought.
Chad had
all season to get on the same page with Brady. He struggled with the offense. I really don’t think he gets the Pats offense. He has a hard time reading the defense. When it looks like a biltz, he should be ready to run a shorter route and I think Brady expects him to know that. Chad will be fighting for a spot on the roster in spring training. I would not be suprised if he gets cut before the season starts. Lloyd can line up in any reciever position and is more of a versatile recieve than Chad. Exactly what the Pats need on offense. He can be the deep threat or line up in the slot to take advantage of the opposing defense. Sign Lloyd.
I dont see us getting Wallace or Lloyd but Id take Wallace and his big contract
I hate to say this but Welker probably wont be a Patriot after this year unless he takes pay cuts to stay. If we do go out and grab a top FA WR why not go for it all this year? TFB is not getting any younger and we need to win now.
by Yardpenalty.com on Feb 19, 2012 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
Overrating Ocho/Branch and underrating Lloyd
I think people forget just how productive Lloyd has been with Josh McDaniels, we’re not talking about bringing in a scrub and expecting him to be a #1 option. What we’re talking about is someone who has proven that he can be a versatile threat as a team’s #1 target given the presence of Josh McD. I don’t expect Lloyd to be the #1 target, my hope is that there is no #1 target, hopefully the guy who is open is where Brady will put the ball.
I seriously doubt that Brady will sit in the pocket and say to himself “Well, I’ve got Welker as my first option, Gronk as my second and Hernandez as my third, I’ll wait to see if Lloyd is open after I check in on all my other targets”….that’s not how it works.
Branch is barely serviceable and Ocho is going to be cut ($4.5million coming if he’s on the roster but the Pats can break even or even save 500K by cutting him).
There’s little doubt that Lloyd can be a 70+ reception player with 1,000 yds in this Offense, he’s done with run-first teams, lesser QB’s and as the only true receiving threat. Whether or not you call him a #1 option is irrelevant, he’s a #1 WR given his skill set and versatility on all levels of the passing Offense.
His “issues” as a teammate arose when Tebow took over and they threw the ball 10 times a game (2 of which were completions!, probably), obviously as a pending Free-Agent he made it clear that he would like to establish his value and be dealt to a team that wasn’t going to running a High-School Offense the rest of the season.
This is really too good of a fit for both sides and makes perfect sense….you can argue for Reggie Wayne but with Welker coming back, hopefully, we’re very, very, unlikely to see big names who want Big Money and long term deals…. Bowe (tagged), Wallace (tagged), Jackson (never caught 70 balls and wants $$$) and Jackson (tagged)…I don’t see that happening but Lloyd is a great fit.
sounds like you are overrating Lloyd
he had one great year under McD but he was one of the few options in a terrible offense. It was one year surrounded by a bunch of mediocre years including some injury problems.
I really do think we're overrating Lloyd though.
Lakers and Patriots forever.
So....
First off, his success was not surrounded by down mediocre years, it was preceded by down years, he’s been nothing but productive since he’s been revamped by Josh McDaniels.
Brandon Lloyd leads the NFL in receiving yards in 2010, 77 receptions for 1400+ yds with a QB whose name is not worth mentioning, he then goes on to catch 70 passes for just under 1,000 yds for the Rams who have a 2nd year QB who was often injured because he was getting crushed consistently due to terrible O-line play.
Lloyd does all of this as the only legitimate option for either team which to you means he’s overrated but in reality it makes his production that much more impressive as he’s the sole target that Defenses centered their schemes around.
Unlike previous posters who have claimed Mike Wallace would make us unstoppable, I haven’t predicted invincibility, I’ve simply stated a very simple fact;
Brandon Lloyd is a great fit for our Offense and he’ll very likely produce at a similar level, if not a higher level.
Kyle Orton is worth mentioning
He struggled a little last year but in 2010 he was extremely productive. Oh and for the record he had 51 catches and 680 yds with the rams not all with Bradford throwing to him. the rest of the production was again from Orton. Regardless, who wants to spend 5 mil a year on a guy that is just as likely to match Branch’s production (51 rec, 702 yds, 5 tds) than get the numbers from 2010. Seriously, he went from one team being the only option to another team where he was still the only reliable option.
It would be worth it to either go more expensive and get someone more dynamic like Wallace or go cheaper and draft a couple high talent rookies. Lloyd is just an expensive band aid that is going to put us in this same position a couple years from now.
Because of how he gets those stats
Lloyd can make plays downfield while Branch cannot (broken tackles for long TDs aside). Forget statistics, think of skillsets – Lloyd’s skillset will help diversify our offense and make it harder to defend
Not to mention
Orton had a great year because all they did was pass. They could not run the ball worth of anything. His stats were padded.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
There are lots of teams that can't run the ball
Not all of them had #1 receivers who produced like Lloyd did. So there is a tonne of talent there. And he’s familiar with the system too. The question is what role will he play exactly, will he be happy with that role, and how much should we pay him to play that role.
How much did we pay Ocho
for the role we thought he would take, what 4 million with a 1.5 million signing bonus. I think Lloyd would accept something around that with incentives
Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"
No. They literally COULD NOT run the ball.
They were absolutely horrendous. So horrendous, that orton had to pass over 30 times a game I believe.
That said, Lloyd was very dependable, and I would like if we got him.
I’ll take 11 players with heart on the field over 11 guys with just talent. Talent is fleeting, it goes away over time. Heart is what drives you to be better. To push yourself beyond what you think your capabilities are. To show us that when you strive, all things are possible.- SMP
OH...
and Lloyd isn’t going to cost you a 1st round pick, or two 1sts, and he’s not going to cost you 7-8M a year over the next 5-6 years…..he’ll likely be at 5M for 3 years. Pretty simple call.
No, he'll be more expensive then that.
He led the NFL in receiving in 2010. Some teams have 60m+ to spend…he’ll probably get paid more then he deserves.
No, he'll be less expensive than that.
Lloyd’s only had success with 1 Offensive Coordinator and he happens to coaching for the Pats…ironically enough that success started in 2010 with Josh and came back down a bit in 2011, again with Josh, not sure why that’s so hard to understand.
Offensive schemes and systems are not like legos, you can’t be Mike Martz and just think you’re so smart that you can plug any player into your system and out comes production. We’ve seen 7 years of OC’s not being able to use Lloyd properly, the moment Josh McD steps in that all changes 180 degrees.
It will be a very big risk and likely a big mistake for another team to come in and offer him more than 5million a year, the teams who have that much cap space aren’t exactly running on all cylinders, spending 7+million on a 30 year old WR who your OC can’t utilize properly isn’t a good idea.
The Lloyd-McDaniels relationship is exactly why the Pats can get him at a reasonable price, because other teams should be weary of Lloyd without Josh and both the Pats and Lloyd realize this…..hell, even Lloyd’s agent realizes this, he opened the door for a deal and he hates the Pats just as much as the Pats hate him…doesn’t that tell you something?
by Panimal4422 on Feb 19, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
People saying Lloyd would be the fourth option don’t get it
If Lloyd is always open, Lloyd would be option #1
by quadruple option on Feb 19, 2012 12:47 AM EST reply actions
Then when Defenses double-him,
Welker,Gronk, and Hernandez can continue to own the middle of the field.
It is what it is
The Pats do not
have a reciever that is a #1 option every game. The Pats put together their plan of attack against their opponents defense differently with every team they play. It could be Gronk one game then Hernandez the next or Welker. It depends on the defense and what they show the Pats offense. Lloyd would pose an additional problem for the opposing defense. There would be more options for Brady with a reciever like Lloyd that could open the middle by having the ability to catch the deep pass down the sidelines. The Pats offense would really have four #1 options depending on how the opposing defense wants to play against them. Lloyd would be a low cost additional weapon that could only make the Pats offense more deadly. Sign him.
Exactly...
Not only is Lloyd a deep threat, averaging 18 yards a reception with the worthy of mention Kyle Orton in 2010 but he’s a viable option at every level, short and intermediate as well…that’s what Josh has done for Lloyd, taken advantage of his skill set in a way no other OC has before.
The argument isn’t that he’s going to be the #1 option, it’s simply that he has the skill-set of #1 WR, he’s not Megatron or Johnson but he’s also not one-dimensional like some of the other deep threat options out there.
He’s a bargain at 4-5 Million because of his success and experience in this offense’s scheme. When you consider his relationship with our OC and the dynamic that creates for the negotiating process between Lloyd and the Pats, it’s an ideal situation.
Okay
Pick up Lloyd in FA, we can go for a young WR in the 3rd or 4th round, get Konz in the 1st and the rest of our picks can be devoted to defense. Sounds good to me!
by poindexterregan on Feb 19, 2012 2:33 PM EST reply actions
Does Belichick want him?
The last receiver “who decided he wanted to play here” wasn’t able to produce for a lot of reasons.
Will Brady throw to Lloyd? Josh is going to tell him to throw to Lloyd? The point of all this is if he’s the FOURTH guy, which he will be behind Wes and the tight ends, why should they spend ANY money on the position? Won’t coach just bring in 7 guys to fight it out in camp like the last 48 times?
I want Brady to throw to another receiver, but, that ain’t gonna make him do it.
Look at all the receivers who are “gone” from the roster.
I don’t think Belichick is going to spend the money on him. There are a lot of WR’s on the market and the Pats hate to spend money.
Yes I assume their will be an FA WR…I just don’t see $5 or $6 mil for a guy with Lloyd’s numbers. I hope they upgrade Branch, he was not able to get open much this season.
we'll see.
Hoodie made a play for him last year. Lloyd doesn’t need to be the fourth guy, if he is open, Brady will throw it to him. It would finally be nice for the defenses to at least respect a threat to go deep. Brandon Lloyd may not be the answer, but we need someone. I am intrigued by Laurent Robinson, he could be a possibility.
by BAMF. on Feb 20, 2012 6:18 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
You're missing the point entirely
The idea is to bring in someone who already knows the Offense and who can produce in this Offense. The reason why Ocho was terrible was that he couldn’t even learn where to lineup after 20 weeks. He didn’t even give Brady the chance to throw him the ball because he didn’t deserve to be on the field. Lloyd is not Ocho.
Again, the point is not that he’s the 4th guy, he won’t be behind Wes and the TE’s, he’ll be the same viable option that all three of those guys are…you can call him the fourth guy if you want but his skill-set is that of a #1 WR which he’s proven he can be in the Offense we’re going to run with Josh McDaniels.
What’s this about the Pats not spending money? Highest paid QB, LG and NT in the NFL, they spend just as much as any other team, you just don’t see terrible signings like the Raiders or Skins.
All the WR’s that are “gone” from the roster where either young guys who couldn’t progress or veterans who couldn’t learn the system….Lloyd would be neither of those.
So instead of signing Lloyd for 4-6M you would rather get V.Jackson at 7-9M despite the fact that VJax has never caught more than 70 balls in a season while Lloyd led the league in yards and has produced 70+ receptions on average for two terrible teams???
Don’t worry about the Pats money, it’s not yours, those big scary numbers aren’t real, it’s the guaranteed money that counts, go check out Mayo’s deal on Rotoworld to see how adept the Pats are at structuring contracts in their favor.
by Panimal4422 on Feb 20, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
wow!
great point on mayos contract, did not know it was so friendly. all i saw was next years cap hit. love it the rest of the way. Great point.
The other thing about Mayo's contract
/and I know this is completely off-point. The Pats extended him early, before they had to. I’d love to see them take that approach with Gronkowski.
Keep the faith!
but with that being said
if the difference between vjax and lloyd is only from 7 to 6 million (which of course i doubt, im figuring 9 to 4 million), then by all means take vjax. say what u want. he may not catch 70 passes but he does alot with what he does catch. and absolutely takes the top off a defense. BIg, STRONG, and great catching radius/body control. I have very little doubt that if money is equal or close to it, that vjax is way to go.
Lloyd
would have a positive impact with the Pats offense on the first game of the 2012 season. His transition to the Pats offense would be seamless. He already knows what McDaniels wants on offense. Brady would be happy to have an additional reciever that understands the opposing defense and can make the adjusrtment to get open. Opposing teams will not have enough good defenders to cover another good target for Brady. Lloyd is not a one dimensional reciever. The Pats would be able to use him in many different formations to create a mismatch. Sign Lloyd.
how awesome would welker,lloyd,gronk and hernandez be?
Hideki Matsui: "Kick ass. Pop champagne. And get some ho's."
and keep branch around
to tutor rueban randal or some other monster
beaucoup awesome
Come see the violence inherent in the system, help help I'm being repressed.
by sweetjesusihatethejets on Feb 20, 2012 5:18 PM EST reply actions
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