Franchise Tag Window Opens Today: Will Wes Welker Get the Designation?

by Greg Knopping on Feb 20, 2012 5:32 PM EST in Opinion/Analysis

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - FEBRUARY 05: Wes Welker #83 of the New England Patriots is pushed out of bounds after a 19 yard run by Michael Boley #59 of the New York Giants in the first quarter during Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Today marked the first day that NFL teams can assign the franchise tag to their impending free agents. The deadline to assign the tag is March 5th.

For the Patriots, the most obvious candidate to receive the tag is wide receiver Wes Welker. Welker, 30, is scheduled to become a free agent for the first time since being traded to New England during the 2007 offseason.

For obvious reasons, both sides likely would want to avoid having the tag assigned by reaching a long term deal before the deadline on March 5th. Right now, however, that doesn't appear too likely as the sides seem to be far apart. In fact, Ian Rapoport reported as such earlier today:

The talks do not appear to have gone smoothly. Discussions between his representatives and the Patriots have not yet included a breakthrough, a source said.

While some are predicting that the Patriots could let Welker hit the open market, I see that scenario as highly unlikely. The two sides do have time to work out a deal. And if they do come close to a deal, the Patriots still could assign Welker the tag as they did with Vince Wilfork in 2009.

Of course, the Patriots could simply be content with having Welker play out the one year contract under the franchise tag, which is expected to be worth $9.6 million. After all, Welker will be 31 at the start of the 2012 NFL season, and signing him to a contract beyond three years could prove to be a significant risk. If this was the Patriots' intention, the question would then become whether Welker would seek a hold-out.

What's my opinion in all of this? I honestly believe that both sides want this thing to work, and that alone will set the necessary course to get this deal done. I do think Welker will receive the tag, but I also think the team will be able to work out an extension (likely three year deal) before that deadline (sometime in July?) comes to pass.

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The more I understand, themore I'm impressed with Mohammed Sanu

He’s perfect for our O.

He’s got great height and speed.
He’s capable of making circus catches.
Consistent production at a high level against tough competition
From the Rutgers program that BB LOVES.
Known as great person with solid character and will fit right in with McCourty.
Is considered a sleeper pick in the second round in a VERY deep WR draft.

At this point, unless something changes, I’m positive he’s going to be one of our WR picks. Every year we double up. 2010: LB and TE, 2011: RB, CB

2012: WR and D-Line? That’s my prediction.

Lakers and Patriots forever.

by D.S.T. on Feb 20, 2012 5:44 PM EST reply actions

I mocked Sanu to the Pats at 27 in my last mock

I like him a lot as a prospect. However, I don’t think he’ll be available when the Patriots pick in the second round.

by Greg Knopping on Feb 20, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

If the Patriots like him as a 1st round prospect but are sure they he will fall to the early second round, they could trade back and hopfully get at least another 4th rounder or so.

by iso1512 on Feb 20, 2012 6:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'm not feeling Sanu

Reports say he’s not very fast, and is more of a possession WR, and he does most of his damage inside the numbers, and isn’t a big play threat. We already have guys that can attack the inside we need more outside big play guys. Kendall Wright
Would spend no more than a 3rd for him.

Rex Ryan: "There’s no way that we’re looking to replace Mark Sanchez"
Patriots Nation: "Thank God"
Giants Fans: "FOUR MORE YEARS!! FOUR MORE YEARS!!"

by Chris Kole on Feb 20, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

He's certainly fast enough. Sort of a Colston type.

And Colston has proved you don’t need 4.3 speed to be a deep threat.

Sanu is a great all-around receiver. He can beat press coverage with ease, can out-jump receivers for the ball, make the acrobatic catch down the field, and also run the whole route tree.

Speed isn’t everything. Taylor Price and Brandon Tate are proof of that.

by Greg Knopping on Feb 21, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

...plus Chad Jackson....

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.
As the Greek philosopher Mediocrites once said, "Eh, it's good enough."

by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 21, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

Mike Reiss

crafted a deal that he believes would work for both Welker and the Patriots. It’s an interesting look at how a fair contract might look.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 20, 2012 7:50 PM EST reply actions

Interesting read

But I don’t like the 4th year on that deal. I’d rather have Welker’s contract expire the same year as Brady’s ( after 2014)

by Greg Knopping on Feb 21, 2012 12:39 AM EST up reply actions

Idk, I kinda like that idea of it running out a year later

It makes it so two of your biggest stars aren’t both needing contracts at the same time in the case that both of them are still producing at a high enough level to warrant new ones, and also, if 2014 does end up being Brady’s last year, I’d like the next QB to have that Welker safety net for at least his first year as a starter.

by indy pats fan on Feb 21, 2012 8:03 AM EST up reply actions

Actually

I guess my first point is moot because Welker’s going to be so old at the end of it that he won’t get more than maybe a year deal in the rare chance that he’s still chugging along somehow. But I’d still like having him here in the case that something happens and Tom Terrific becomes not so Terrific.

by indy pats fan on Feb 21, 2012 8:09 AM EST up reply actions

Interesting....

At first I thought 22-Million was too much of a guarantee on only a 4 year deal (compared to the 5 year deals of Marshall and Holmes).

The contract’s structure will be very important for the Pats….I would expect that some, perhaps a good portion of the base salary will be back-loaded with some roster/workout bonuses worked in. The Pats will have to be creative with that in order to not offend Wes who, along with his agent, will see right through the gross value of the contract and see the Pats plans for the future.

Back-loading the deal allows the Pats to spread out the prorated cap hit at a lower cost per season which will be important as the many key youngsters start hitting Free-Agency in the next 3-4 years.

If Wes is being realistic he will realize that the guaranteed money is a very good deal and his 4th year will be after his 34th B-day. If he doesn’t plan on restructuring to retire a Patriot at that point in time then he probably won’t see that back-loaded base salary and roster bonus…., who knows? Maybe he’s still producing at an unreal level, but 8-10 Million for a 34 year old slot WR, that isn’t very likely.

It might be better for both sides to offer less guaranteed money over 3 years 25million (15 Million guaranteed) but include a 5million roster bonus for 2012 similar to what they did with Mayo….that’s essentially 20million guaranteed for Welker, 12million of which he gets in 2012…. the Pats have tons of cap room in 2012 and this allows the Pats to have more cap space for the two big Free-Agent classes in the next two years…and they’re going to want to resign Spikes, Chung, Vollmer, McCourty etc

Both sides are at a reasonable 5mill guaranteed and 2.5million salary in 2013 and 14’.

The Pats basically pay Wes the same amount at the end of the day for 3 good years and avoid having to eat any guaranteed money for a 4th year or risk keeping him on the roster because of that money…..and from Welker’s point of view he still gets paid the same amount of that 4 year deal with the dead money 4th year….he may very well get another shot at Free-Agency when he’s 34 as well…similar to Reggie Wayne this year.

by Panimal4422 on Feb 20, 2012 8:38 PM EST reply actions

What is the fair value?

WW to the Patriots is far more valuable, than say, to the Jaguars. That being said, if WW thinks he should be paid top 5 reciever money, then let him go. There are too many other areas that need attention, and there are good options in FA / Draft to address the WR need.

WW has been a very productive player for the Pats. But, at age 31, with a skill set that relies on quick slats / out routes, it’s very likely that beyond this next season, WW could hit the “RB 30 wall” (RB turns age 30, he turns into nothing productive.)

Sanu looks great on tape, against inferior / low calibur Big East football. He’s very slow, has good, but not great hands, and is not a very good route runner. Most of his production came against zone coverages.

For real Patriots value, here are the priorities:

1. Let WW depart to the Jaguars / 49ers / team with a lot a cap space.
2. Draft Joe Adams. will add a kick / punt returner element we’ve been missing in several years.
3. Sign Pierre Garcon to 4-year deal.
4. Draft Ryan Broyles.

by 4Patriots on Feb 20, 2012 11:34 PM EST reply actions

franchise is better than losing him, although $9.4m is a lot

love to see welker sign, mike wallace and mario williams signed as FA’s since both their teams are hurting cap wise. let the lawfirm go. i know im dreaming but wallace and williams have what we lack. speed, downfield threat and major pass rush

by craziness@analltimehigh on Feb 21, 2012 11:46 AM EST reply actions