Trade Brady?

by dannijd on Feb 7, 2012 1:44 AM EST

It has been suggested by some that it is time for Brady to go. After all, he is getting older, and his playoff performances of recent have not been what they used to be. Emotionally, this move just feels wrong. He is the face of the franchise, and of the NFL- like Peyton Manning in Indy, it is hard to see him in another team's uniform. But sentimentality and emotions do not win championships, and as every one of us has learned at one time or another, this organization is far from sentimental. So perhaps it is time for a bit of rationality- is it time for this franchise to embrace a re-build- offensively as well as defensively?

So I decided to look at numbers, as they are perhaps the easiest way to notice if perhaps Brady is losing his edge, either overall or against the league. With thanks to football reference, the below are Brady's vital statistics.

Brady through the years (rank among other starters in parenthesis):

Year	Comp.	Attempts	Completion Percentage	Yards	TDs	Int.'s	Rating	Sacks
2001	264	413	63.9% (4th)	2843 (22nd)	18 (13th)	12 (23rd)	86.5 (6th)	41 (6th)
2002	373	601	62.1% (8th)	3764 (6th)	28 (1st)	14 (17th)	85.7 (9th)	31 (12th)
2003	317	527	60.2% (13th)	3620 (6th)	23 (10th)	12 (23rd)	85.9 (10th)	32 (10th)
2004	288	474	60.8% (17th)	3692 (10th)	28 (6th)	14 (12th)	92.6 (9th)	26 (19th)
2005	334	530	63.0% (8th)	4110 (1st)	26 (3rd)	14 (7th)	92.3 (6th)	26 (16th)
2006	319	516	61.8% (13th)	3529 (7th)	24 (5th)	12 (19th)	87.9 (9th)	26 (15th)
2007	398	578	68.9% (1st)	4806 (1st)	50 (1st)	8 (28th)	117.2 (1st)	21 (19th)
2009	371	565	65.7% (7th)	4395 (5th)	28 (6th)	13 (15th)	96.2 (9th)	16 (32nd)
2010	324	492	65.9% (4th)	3900 (8th)	36 (1st)	4 (40th)	111.0 (1st)	25 (20th)
2011	401	611	65.6% (3rd)	5235 (2nd)	39 (4th)	12 (18th)	105.6 (3rd)	32 (13th)

Interesting among these numbers are that Brady's completion percentage, yardage totals, and touchdowns show that he is still essentially the same quarterback he has been since 2007, and is actually a BETTER quarterback than he was during the Super Bowl years. He is NOT yet showing signs of decline. The only number that is a bit concerning is the sack rate, which has been creeping back up from it's low of 16 in 2009. However, perhaps this uptick, while dangerous in the sense that he is getting hit more is actually a GOOD thing, as it shows that Brady is not intimidated by standing back there, and thus is letting the play develop and using his feet to an extent to allow him to extend the play. He will never be particularly mobile, but he wasn't that in the Super Bowl years (or even before- he actually holds a record for the slowest 40 ever at the combine for a quarterback!).

While others have suggested that Brady is no longer as good in the clutch, that the old, ice water in the veins that he used to have is no longer there, this argument does not truly hold water. Football is far too much of a team sport to blame any one player alone for a team's failures. And statistics "in the clutch" always rely on such small sample sizes as to be statistically irrelevant.

And so we come back to the question at the start of this article- is it time to trade Tom Brady? The answer is almost unilaterally no. While Ryan Mallet may be the future, this is not the situation that the Patriots had in 2002, where Brady had shown in 18 starts that he had stomething- we have never seen Mallet in a regular season game situation and there is nothing in his past history to suggest that he is going to turn out to be the better quarterback, and the team is not spending a meaningful amount of money on him. Further, the amount of value the Patriots would get back if they traded him is highly unlikely to give them back what they would lose in giving him up.

Championships are difficult to get to, let alone win- heck, once you get a ticket to the dance, the any given Sunday rule applies, and all that you can hope for is that the ball bounces your way that day. As much as Brady had a hand in the loss, he also still very much has an opportunity to play a part in a bright future for this team. To trade him now (absent an absolute king's ransom that would never be offered) would be foolish and short sighted.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SBNation.

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Comments

Sacks, man, thats interesting.

So the year everybody tells him to take the skirt off and be a man, he’s barely taking any hits, where as the years nobody mentions that hes taking almost twice as many? Dunno why I’m still surprised by these things, but I am.

Don’t trade him. That benefits nobody, unless he wants to go to the Cowboys so he can have another shot at the Giants. They’re a decent team, could anyone blame him? But not happening either way.

Oh my god a floor zombie! Oh wait, thats you
- Toby Turner

by New Century Silver on Feb 7, 2012 2:58 AM EST reply actions

I'm sorry but no.

Yes Brady threw a dumb pass, but let’s be totally honest, BRADY did enough to win the Super Bowl. If the receivers catch the balls thrown to them you guys are celebrating a 4th SB victory and Brady is MVP.

That said, I would LOVE to see Brady as a Redskin.

Due to recent events, we are proud to announce Ball So Hard University's new name change:

Fail So Hard University.

We hope to continue our proud tradition of failing in the biggest games possible.

by svenhoek on Feb 7, 2012 7:48 AM EST reply actions

Which is the conclusion I came to (unsurprisingly)...

Although my cousin’s three year old thinks Brady and Welker should be Eagles!!

This post was more in some ways about my attempt to see the other side- if I took my emotions out of it (hard because of how much I love Brady and this team), is there a rational argument that the team going forward would be better without him.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 7, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

Where was this shit when he was winning SBs?

While others have suggested that Brady is no longer as good in the clutch, that the old, ice water in the veins that he used to have is no longer there, this argument does not truly hold water. Football is far too much of a team sport to blame any one player alone for a team’s failures. And statistics “in the clutch” always rely on such small sample sizes as to be statistically irrelevant.

by redmid17 on Feb 7, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions

It was there just not as loud

Plenty of people where saying Brady got lucky with the tuck rule and the only reason the pats won the SB was cuz of vinateri and less Brady. Now he lost two SB it’s even louder, and even coming from the own fanbase.

by lololol on Feb 7, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

Brady is a quarterback, and will thus almost always be subject to the image distortion that the media uses on them...

When the team wins, he is amazing and if done in a dramatic fashion clutch (even if the drive involved crazy circus catches or severe defensive mis-cues. When the team loses, he is no good because he could not come through in the clutch. Neither is truly fair or deserved, and at the end of the day, neither should be the reason why a quarterback is kept or traded.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 7, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

Opinion from behind enemy lines?

As a Jet fan I would vote that yes you should trade Brady. Actually let me put it another way and beg, plead, and promise to do boderline illegal/immoral acts if Brady was traded. Seriously though fans (both pro and con) always overreact. Simply put Brady is still one of the best QB’s right now. He would make any team he is on a SB contender just by being the starter.

On another note, sorry for your loss. Although I have a dislike (born solely on jelousy) of the Pats, still much respect to your organization. Hell at least you guys get to celebrate Super Week. I wouldn’t even know what that is like. Hopefully we can give you more competition next year.

España 2010 Campeones del Mundo!!!

by Togaman7 on Feb 7, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Thanks for the perspective.

It’s times like this you have to talk the guys off of the ledge.

The more you know, the more you know that you don't know.
Some people can learn from the mistakes of others, while some people need to pee on the electric fence themselves.

by SlotMachinePlayer on Feb 7, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

admit ur real reason to trade Brady why dont u?

if they trde Brady then maybe ur so called QB and Coach can actually stand behind there statements..as long as brady stays in NE, ur teams chances of winning 1st in Div remains low!!!!

as for coming yr , if U change ur QB then u might…face it Sanchez isnt ur answer…not when his 3 favorite qualitys are “A” throwing a pick-6..“B” knowing in 3 yrs only thing He has excelled at is 2 words of Kill-Kill….#3 still can not read a Def!!!!!.and now with a new OC,good luck at Least with Pats we have 1 that was here b/4 makes a Big difference!!!!

by Jack2466 on Feb 9, 2012 8:43 PM EST up reply actions

uh, no need to be hostile, i think it was pretty obvious he was kidding.

by dudebro on Feb 9, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions

Besides...

Asking a Jets fan if the Pats should trade Brady would be like asking a Pats fan if Mr. Revis’s island should be moved to the NFC- the answer is inveritably going to be yes (largely for selfish reasons).

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 10, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

You guys are crazy.

Lets Go Buff a lo!

by bflo on Feb 7, 2012 1:23 PM EST reply actions

ummm……..Trading Brady would be ridiculous. He is still one of the top quarterbacks. Maybe he does get rattled easy with pressure, but that pressure is consistent.
Tom has broken away from sacks and extended plays. His interception was during one of those plays where he broke away from a sack and threw right in front of defensive player coming at him. Sometimes, I think he gambles too much like with throwing those deep passes that led to INT’s like he is throwing to Randy Moss. I would never question his heart.

He led 2 great drives for TD. The first one was right before half time.

He just needs a reliable defense to balance out the great offense. He also needs a speedy deep threat wide receiver that he can throw the ball too. He needs a running back that can keep the Patriots offense balance. Randy Moss and Corey Dillon filled the roles well.

The offensive line needs to do a better job protecting him.

He would have been sacked way more if he hadn’t broken away from sacks or thrown balls away. He would have gotten sacked in the endzone for a safety.

by raymond.n.scott on Feb 7, 2012 9:58 PM EST reply actions

Does anyone ever stop and think about what this team would look like without Brady?

There is no way in hell this team even makes the playoffs without Brady, especially with our defense. Brady has carried this team for years. 5 superbowls in 11 seasons. HE LEADS US TO THE SUPERBOWL ALMOST EVERY OTHER YEAR. Dont forget 06 when he had crap receivers and Asante dropped that pick in the AFC Championship against the Colts. We were that close to superbowl #6. Brady isnt perfect, but he made enough plays to win on Sunday and he deserves nothing but respect and admiration from the fans.

by The Qwan on Feb 7, 2012 10:45 PM EST reply actions

People are just waaaaay overreacting

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 8, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

seriously, Marima

make it stop!! i think a lot of it (very unfortunately) is due to fairweathers who are spoiled. i thought the team this year was special. a brotherhood that played for one another, overachieved, and played their hearts out every game. they weren’t the most talented, but they played above their expectations. brady is the exception, he just has so much pressure on himself to carry this team. and he succeeds almost every time, and one loss has everyone going for his head. give me a break.

by jamiesinnott on Feb 8, 2012 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

You're right. "Expectations" are the killer.

Tom Brady is walking a tight wire here in NE. After 3 Super Bowl wins in 4 years there’s really nowhere to go but down because that was an impossible pace for any QB to maintain. No fan has the right to expect – no, demand – what they do out of him, and the temper tantrums when he doesn’t live up to their impossible standards are simply out of control.

I heard someone suggesting before the game that Brady was too uptight and needs to relax. Are you kidding? Fans won’t allow him to relax. They didn’t want him marrying, becoming a father, or having any other interests besides football. They want him to still fight for the same freaking parking spot the rookies compete over in the offseason. He’s not allowed to grow older or grow up. I’ve really never seen anything like it.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 9, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions

I agree with u 100%

people tend to forget people change..everyone needs a lifestyle that suits them Not a FAN..that be like the Pats players asking how come u do this or did that, after awhile u be sick and tired of it….look I dodnt care how many times a player gets married or who they marry or where they go in off-season.THATS there Lifestyle..if U can’t accept that then u need to make some changes in ur own ways!!!

Ya back when Ne begin they were bottom of Barrel per-se like so what!!…here is a good question for some B/4 NE was awarded a AFL franchise, what were they known as? where was there home Stadium? and what NFL team used this team as there Farm team?.also Original Owner what other Major business did he and His Family own?..lets see how many know these answer;s..I can back up the Answers because My Dad was the Accountant for Sullivans firm as well as there 1st yrs in Old AFC!!!!

Give u a hint Original team came out of the old Atlantic Coast league if that will help any!!!

by Jack2466 on Feb 9, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

Totally agree..

For Brady, being so successful so quickly has been both blessing and curse- it was a blessing in that it gave him a chance to get to where he is today- if he had been merely average, there is a chance that Bledsoe gets his job back, and Brady is relegated to sitting the bench for years, or maybe forever.

But that blessing has another side- it is hard to stay that good forever- particularly since some of that performance is based on things outside of Brady’s control- coordinators and teammates have come and gone, injuries have happened, and there is a certain element of luck involved with being good in the playoffs- it helps when the bounces go your way! The problem for Brady is that all of this started to even out his success rate at a time when he started to try to have a life outside of football- so it is far too easy to connect the two, whether it is true or false. I even fall into the trap at moments. I think that it is a lot easier when the championships come after the life has went into balance- it prevents some of the false connections (i.e. the Pats won Super Bowls because Brady was committed to the team, and are not winning them now because he got a life (wife, kiddos, the whole bit). I totally don’t blame him for escaping Boston in the offseason- seven months a year in that fish bowl is a lot for him!

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 10, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

I never said I was for it

I started researching into this after reading several posts (and New Century Silver’s Post on why Brady should be done as a starter). In some ways I wrote this more to insure that my belief that his best years are not behind him was based in fact, not emotion (I love Brady as much as anyone on this list, and the thought of him anywhere but under center in New England makes me sad.). I chose to post it as an independent post so that I could put the argument up artfully- I should perhaps have used a different title. For that I apologize.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 8, 2012 10:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

No, I actually read your post and got your point

I was just agreeing with him that people in general were overreacting.

Keep the faith!

by Marima on Feb 9, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

we agree what team will look like BUT? u always have to be prepared

I mean if he is hurt again who do we turn too? Hoyer(if still here) or Mallett..we need to address a True Back-up that actually can get into playing games…I hate to go like Indy did this past yr!!!!..

yes He needs too be appreciated But also a few of His pass;s were off…a few had no real zip on them…But we need more of a OFF then one based off wes and 2-TE;S….now he has gone thru past 2 yrs with that ’Chronic" shoulder injury…so that always has to factor in as He continues too Play..But I think if McDaniels can get Lloyd Here if will open up the OFF…and If those 2 Rookies RB can step-up maybe Off will change…

Best move BB made in bringing back Josh!!!…tell me i am crazy or even Nuts But I see JOSH being Groomed to take over as HC, oneday!!!

But bottom line we do need to have a relaible back-up..so How good is Mallette? does anyone know?

by Jack2466 on Feb 10, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions

- I agree with you about not wanting to go the way of Indy, but you have to also realize that what happened in Indianapolis was a perfect storm. Their defense and special teams has ranged from bad to mediocre, and they have huge difficulties running the ball. All of this was hidden by Peyton being Peyton- one of the greatest quarterbacks of the generation, and arguably a better quarterback than Brady (if only because he has done the things that he has done with even less of a supporting cast). The fact is that it may have been tough sledding in Indy this year even with Peyton- their schedule (facing the NFC South and AFC North) did them no favors, and Peyton could not have hidden the flaws forever. Paying Peyton as much as they have paid them hamstrings them in terms of supporting cast, and at some point, they were going to pay for it.

As much as I say that, there is no guarantee that the Patriots would not suffer if Brady were to go away- it is almost doubtless that they would. However, football has a salary cap, and one of the questions that every team has to ask is how much of their resources should be used on a player who is going to be a backup, realizing that money that is spent on that backup qb is not being spent on players who could make an impact whether Brady is there or not.

- I am not denying that some of his passes were off. However, I think that is true of any quarterback- none of them have ever thrown a perfect game so to speak. The injury Brady has been struggling with this season is to his non-throwing shoulder, and will hopefully resolve with time. Whether doing something about it is a good decision or not I will leave to those wiser on those things than me. I agree with you on the need to bring in a deep threat to balance out the offense, but still expect that next year will involve healthy doses of Wes (provided he even returns, which I am not holding my breath for), Gronk and Hernandez- they are talented, and Brady is comfortable with them, so I doubt the offense will completely changed.

- I am also excited by Josh’s return. I loved the offense that he crafted, although it will be interesting to see how he changes his offensive scheme to fit the players that he has- he likes to use 3 and 4 receiver sets, and even with a Lloyd type receiver, he will still be well served to find ways to get the ball to the tight ends. I am not sure whether I want to see Josh as head coach- he made some big errors during his stint in Denver. That is not to say that he may not have learned from them, and time may not mature him, only to say that he may be one of the great coordinators who simply does not make a good head coach. Right now, I hope that BB is around for a good long time!

- We don’t really know how good Mallett is. He looked good in some of his pre-season work, but that was the pre-season, and it is hard to get a good gauge off of that. I did not follow him in college, but he did not go until the third round of the draft, so he clearly was not one of the best qb’s out there. Time will tell (hopefully in limited garbage time duty- I am not ready to be missing Brady yet!)

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 11, 2012 5:57 PM EST up reply actions

This is stupid!

Get rid of him so we can end up with a Sanchez level QB? You can show me any stats you want to but stats are stats and nothing else, talk intangibles and Brady is the man. If you still have to look at stats 5200+ yards this year? No denying he’s still one of the top 2 QB’s in the league. Better protection and some deffensive help and he’s still number one. This was supposed to be a work in progress and we still end up in the SB. Get real guys!

This is not a situation like Larry Bird when he was stuggling with injury’s. This guy is healthy and has to have help. This not Brady vs the rest of the NFL. The rest of the team has to step up and get some new people to help Brady. When he had defences around him he won 3 SB’s in 4 years. Almost last ranked defence and still makes it to the SB. The man has to be perfect every week to win cause the defence can’t cause turn overs and stop the opponent from scoring. All the pressure has been on the offence all year, for the past few years. 2007 SB, aging greats weren’t enough either.

Steve in Houston

by SteveDr on Feb 9, 2012 12:11 PM EST reply actions

The conclusion of this article was that Brady should stay!

Both stats and intangibles are important- stats, and analytics in general are important because they allow an unbiased look at things. The stats are informed by situations surrounding them (i.e. better receivers will cause completion % to go up and a better offensive line will help to prevent sacks.). Stats also help to avoid certain natural human tendencies to remember more recent events more strongly than things that have receded even slightly into the past and to make generalizations based on tiny sample sizes. While intangibles also have a place, and a value, intangibles are also things of the heart and emotion, and can be biased.

I totally agree with you that Brady is very much an elite quarterback, along with Brees, Rodgers, and Peyton (if I was assured by the genie in the bottle that he would be coming back healthy next year). Further, quarterbacks need to be measured based on their performance within the offense- defense has nothing to do with it (although in the winning games sense, they very much do). Some bad quarterbacks have won Super Bowls on the backs of great defenses. It did not make them great quarterbacks.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Feb 10, 2012 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

Another perspective from a Jets fan

Are you people crazy? What the hell are the they putting in the water up there? Your team plays a great season and a great superbowl and come up a little short and you want to trade away one of the game’s best QBs? I’ve seen over reacting on blogs before but this really takes the cake.

"I just build our guys up. If it's trash talking that I believe in our football team, then, yes, I agree with that statement. I'm the biggest trash talker there is." Rex Ryan

by OldJetsFanatic on Feb 9, 2012 5:14 PM EST reply actions

oldjets..probably same water that REX and Sanchez drink b/4 every game

Now I feel sorry for ur guys again this yr seeing REX has re-signed hunter, and holmes…15mil for a WR?…and 14 mil for Sanchez….u’ll need more than Peyton to help ur team

by Jack2466 on Feb 9, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions