The early rage of Tavon Austin to the Pats has now seemed to change course for much of the mock draft universe. Going off of news postings on here, it would seem that people are now projecting the Pats would pick either Matt Elam (unless Vaccaro slips of course), or a big, tall, fast, talented WR.
After the combine, WRs tend to increase their stock. Some stocks drop as well, but the two WRs whose names are recently being elated to the Pats are Quinton Patton and Justin Hunter. At least when the combine rolls along, those two may be the favorites to land late first round rankings, and the Pats could take a look at them.
Now I could go all BPA here, but instead since this is a comparison between the two, I think it would benefit us to get a much better idea of who we are getting, and look at the contexts of their skill sets and production. Let's get started.
Quinton Patton, WR 6'0" 202 lbs. Louisiana Tech.
To start off with, let me talk about his measureables. We want someone who can be a deep threat, and for most people that means over 6'3" with 4.40 speed or higher. Patton is 6'0" 202 lbs (good weight there), and is currently listed at 4.50 speed with CBS Draft (though according to the video, he can run a 4.40 40 time. Time will tell at the combine what he will run however).
Next, lets look at his profile on CBS Draft, then lok at his stats to see if they coincide with what the person is saying, and look at the video to see how both the stats and profile reflects him.
Averaging 51.5 points per game to lead the nation in 2012, it goes without saying that Louisiana Tech featured an explosive offense. While then-head coach Sonny Dykes received plenty of credit (and deservedly so) for the Bulldogs' gaudy production, his team featured one of the nation's better quarterback-receiver combinations in seniors Colby Cameron and Patton.
Patton signed with Louisiana Tech after being named Team MVP and first-team all-conference as a wide receiver at Coffeyville Community College, a consistent producer of some of the country's top junior college prospects. Patton, who also earned second-team all conference honors as a punt returner and even punted himself for the Red Ravens in 2009, caught 50 passes for 687 yards and four touchdowns in his redshirt sophomore season and was recruited by Troy and Minnesota, along with Louisiana Tech.
Once in the Western Athletic Conference, Patton exploded, earning first-team all-conference honors for the second consecutive year by catching 79 passes for 1,202 yards and 11 scores in 2012. Despite his production, Patton reportedly wasn't highly ranked by NFL scouts entering his senior season but steadily boosted his grade throughout the campaign by proving his production was hardly a fluke, catching 104 passes for 1,392 yards and 13 touchdowns on his way to AP All-American recognition.
There is no denying Patton's statistics were inflated by Dykes' explosive offense, but the heady receiver's reliable route-running, soft hands and deceptive speed would have made him a featured target in any scheme. With an impressive performance in all-star games and workouts, Patton could emerge as one of the top senior receiver prospects in the 2013 draft.
STRENGTHS: Possesses an athletic build with long arms. Quick accelerator who gobbles up the cushion. Shows good quickness, strength and competitiveness versus press coverage. Sets up the defender with a variety of releases, alternating his gait to keep his opponent off-balance. Consistently catches the ball with his hands, away from his body.
Experience as a punt returner is obvious once he gets the ball in his hands in the open field. Shows good vision to set up blocks and good shake to elude defenders one on one. May not possess elite breakaway speed but has the burst to turn a short pass into a long gain. Tracks the ball very well over his shoulder, showing excellent body control to keep his feet in bounds while securing the pass. Alert, competitive downfield blocker.
WEAKNESSES: Does not appear to possess elite breakaway speed. Struggles to gain separation on deep passes and while a very good route-runner, doesn't possess true explosiveness out of his breaks. Isn't afraid to mix it up with defenders as he runs his routes and will push-off on occasion to help gain separation, drawing the rare offensive pass interference flag (Texas A&M).
Possesses generally reliable hands but will drop an occasional pass (JACK'S NOTE: Sounds Vague here though right? Like it can apply to anybody?), especially when defenders are battling with him. Must get stronger and improve his concentration to make the tough grabs with defenders ripping away at his arms as the ball arrives. Can make defenders miss but doesn't show much strength to run through arm tackles.
COMPARES TO: Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans -- Scouts had questions about Washington's readiness for the NFL when he left Tiffin, but like Patton he has used his savvy and deceptive athleticism to develop as a quality NFL starter.
I highlighted some key things in here to pay attention to. Because when we look at the stats and video, we want everything to reflect on what he said, but also look at them in context, and not just take a profile for it's word.
Some key things that are mentioned in here that I want to indicate in the stats:
- Soft Hands: Does he catch the ball often? Is he consistent? Does he get YAC from them too?
- Deceptive Speed: This can be more easily viewed in the video. However, perhaps the indication of a deep threat is his yards per catch. If that stat is high in some games, can he be a deep threat still, even with his size?
The stats I am going to present are there to moreso show how consistent he is as a WR, not only vs. ranked teams but unranked teams as well (for if he does average at best against unranked teams, he may not be as good as we thought to be a true #1 threat).
Here are the Stats:
|09/08/12||@ Houston||Grass||W 56-49||4||36||9.00||0|
|09/22/12||@ Illinois||Turf||W 52-24||6||164||27.33||2|
|09/29/12||@ Virginia||Grass||W 44-38||8||97||12.13||0|
|10/13/12||5 Texas A&M||Turf||L 57-59||21||233||11.10||4|
|10/27/12||@ New Mexico St.||Grass||W 28-14||6||42||7.00||0|
|11/10/12||@ Texas St.||Turf||W 62-55||8||86||10.75||0|
|11/17/12||16 Utah St.||Turf||L 41-48||11||181||16.45||0|
|11/24/12||@ 21 San Jose St.||Grass||L 43-52||10||125||12.50||2|
|@ : Away, + : Neutral Site|
The first ranked team he faced, he had his best game of the season. 7 games of over 100 yards. All games but two he has over 10 yards per catch. His average yards per catch is 13.38, but he has shown to be consistent in catching the ball and making plays with it. He has 13 TDs, and are pretty well spread. Only has 5 games without a TD, but has been productive in 3 of them (I consider production in yards and catches). Other than that, he has at least 1 TD in the other games, and 4/7 games he had multiple TDs. Caught 104 balls, for 1392 yards. A lot of catches.
Judging from this season's stats, he is really consistent. He can make catches and get YAC. He knows how to get TDs as well. The ranked teams he faced this season he did really well against. Only 3 of the games here I consider unproductive games (@Houston, Idaho, and @New Mexico State). Got one TD out of those 3 games. I don't think this means he is inconsistent. Let's look at his previous season's stats to get further into the details.
|09/03/11||@ 20 Southern Miss.||Turf||L 17-19||5||95||19.00||0|
|09/10/11||Central Ark.||Turf||W 48-42||8||211||26.38||2|
|09/17/11||18 Houston||Turf||L 34-35||5||82||16.40||1|
|09/24/11||@ Mississippi St.||Grass||L 20-26||11||87||7.91||1|
|10/08/11||@ Idaho||Turf||W 24-11||9||34||3.78||0|
|10/22/11||@ Utah St.||Turf||W 24-17||4||38||9.50||0|
|10/29/11||San Jose St.||Turf||W 38-28||5||116||23.20||2|
|11/05/11||@ Fresno St.||Grass||W 41-21||6||97||16.17||2|
|11/12/11||@ Mississippi||Turf||W 27-7||3||33||11.00||0|
|11/19/11||@ Nevada||Turf||W 24-20||7||162||23.14||1|
|11/26/11||New Mexico St.||Turf||W 44-0||3||54||18.00||0|
|12/21/11||+ 14 TCU||Grass||L 24-31||5||67||13.40||1|
|@ : Away, + : Neutral Site|
Couple things I notice here. In 2012, he put up more TDs, a lot more catches, more yards, and facing better competition, in turn, did better. How much did he improve as a player from judging these stats?
From a receptions standpoint, it does look like he gets his fair share of them. His average is higher by 2.03 yards per catch. Same amount of games without a TD. But only 3 games with multiple TDs (though in 2012, he had better multiple TD games).
So what can we say here?
- He is consistent. His hands must be soft, because he seems to get a lot of catches per game (I classify a lot as in over 5 catches).
- He showed a remarkable improvement his next season, with against better competition.
- He has the ability to get at least 1 TD per game, consistently get over 10 yards per catch, and has shown to be a reliable target.
Here are some video for you to observe these findings. I can't watch video at my school for some reason, so I'll post up what I want YOU to look for (I'll look at the video when I can to also judge for myself), and see whether or not you'll like him more than my next contestant in this challenge.
- The quick accelerator. We all see how Wes Welker accels from the LOS. How does Patton look here?
- Deceptive Speed. Does he often get behind the safeties?
- Route Running. How many types of routes does he run? Does he get open against the coverage? How is his vision in knowing when/where to make the cut in a specific coverage?
- How is he in press coverage?
- Can he track the ball over his shoulder well like the Scout says?
- Does he struggle to get separation on deep passes?
- Will he drop the "occasiona" pass when the defender is battling with him?
- How is his body control? Ball skills?
2012 Highlights, vs. Texas A&M 2012 , vs. Illinois 2012, vs. Rice 2012, vs. Utah State 2012. That's about all I can find. There are some interviews you can watch on youtube if you like, and some 2011, 2010, 2009 videos.
Now....... here comes Justin Hunter.
Justin Hunter, WR 6'4" 200 lbs. Tennessee
Am I height, weight, speed, judging again? Well this is how it starts. For a deep threat, Hunter has ideal size that you want, while running a 4.50 time according to CBS Draft (again, may change in combine). But how is his scouting report?
The Virginia Beach, Va. Native was a Top 175 prospect by Rivals.com and was invited to the Under Armour All-America game after catching 46 passes for 714 yards and nine touchdowns as a high school senior in 2009.
Hunter signed with Tennessee and earned immediate action, averaging an eye-popping 25.9(JACK'S NOTE: On this year he only caught 16 footballs, 7 TDs, and only caught 1 or less receptions in 10/13 games. The one catch he made was often a long one, so don't take this too seriously, but it shows potential) yards per catch in 2010 and earning a spot on the All-SEC Freshman team.
He looked well on his way toward establishing himself as a potential all-conference selection in 2011, racking up 315 receiving yards over the first two games before tearing his ACL in Tennessee's first offensive series against Florida.
One of the top high school recruits Derek Dooley was able to lure to Knoxville, Hunter is a good sized target and displays explosive footwork in and out of his breaks, which is probably his best quality. He isn't the most natural hands-catcher on throws away from his body and appears to battle streaky confidence due to his drops. Hunter has some durability concerns because of his lean build and '11 knee injury.
He has first-round talent, but the drops and inconsistency hurt his value, making it tough to trust him. Hunter has a high ceiling if he can refine several areas of his game and is worth the chance in the second round, but it wouldn't be surprising if he a team takes a chance on his upside in the first round.
Strengths: Hunter is a tall, long athlete with an exceptional catching radius and reach. He is a fluid, gliding mover with long strides and deceiving speed to get vertical or make plays after the catch. He has strong footwork in/out of his breaks with sharp route quickness to sell patterns and create some separation. He tracks the ball beautifully, adjusting with outstanding body control.
Hunter does a nice job becoming a DB downfield to knock balls away and prevent the INT. He has the size/speed combination to attract defensive holding and pass interference penalties in his routes. Hunter has experience lining up as an X, Y and Z receiver, lining up all over the offense for Tennessee.
He had a productive 2012 season as one of only four SEC receivers to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, finishing third in receiving yards (1,083) and touchdown grabs (9). Despite just 17 career starts, Hunter finishes his Tennessee career ranked top-five in career 100-yard receiving games (8) and touchdown catches (18).
Weaknesses: Hunter has a lean body type from head to toe and needs to add more strength and bulk, but lacks the frame to easily put on weight. He isn't overly explosive after the catch and is a little straight-linish, lacking flexible ankles and needing a moment when changing his directions. Hunter plays rushed and needs to stay under control in his routes and when locating the ball.
He needs to eliminate some bad habits, playing wild at times, jumping when he doesn't need to and losing yardage when he reverses his field trying to do too much. Hunter lacks natural hands to corral fastballs and is too inconsistent catching the ball with a lot of body catches and double catches. He needs to secure grabs and doesn't always look the ball into his hands or locate, battling streaky hand/eye coordination.
Hunter gets obviously frustrated by off-target throws and too often he lets poor body language show, needing to stay focused for all four quarters and keep his emotions in-check. He needs to be more aggressive on 50/50 and jump balls and how better conviction, often lacking the physicality to consistently out-muscle most defensive backs.
Hunter often has some alligator arms over the middle with defenders bearing down on him and needs to sell out for catches. He lacks the build to break tackles, but he needs to play tougher instead of giving up his body or escaping out of bounds. Hunter holds the ball too loose after the catch and needs to protect the ball.
He has some durability concerns because of his lean build, including a torn ACL in his left knee (Sept. 17, 2011). Hunter struggled against top competition in 2012 with just 2 of his 9 touchdowns coming against SEC foes and his 4 100-yard receiving performances were against Georgia State, Akron, Troy and Missouri.
Compares To: Mix of AJ Green, Bengals/Brian Quick, Rams - Like Green, Hunter is a tall, athletic receiver with very good speed and length for the position, but like Quick, he is also unpolished in several areas, including inconsistent hands.
Very sorry about all of that bold. But there is just so much information there to keep track of... So... what is in this profile that the stats can help shed some light on Justin Hunter for us?
- Consistency: The post stressed some consistency issues, moreso with catching, but when it comes to stats we'll look at the catches and yards of course.
- Yards per catch: If this is high, it would indicate a possible deep threat.
Pretty much the same things with Patton here, since by the stats these are some of the only things we can go off of.
So here are his stats:
|08/31/12||+ North Carolina St.||Turf||W 35-21||9||73||8.11||0|
|09/08/12||Georgia St.||Grass||W 51-13||8||146||18.25||3|
|09/15/12||9 Florida||Grass||L 20-37||5||76||15.20||0|
|09/29/12||@ 5 Georgia||Grass||L 44-51||3||46||15.33||0|
|10/13/12||@ Mississippi St.||Grass||L 31-41||2||41||20.50||0|
|10/20/12||1 Alabama||Grass||L 13-44||4||70||17.50||0|
|10/27/12||@ 8 South Carolina||Grass||L 35-38||8||90||11.25||0|
|11/17/12||@ 23 Vanderbilt||Grass||L 18-41||5||39||7.80||0|
|@ : Away, + : Neutral Site|
I am now on a PC computer, so forgive the lack of "table-like" features. But you should still be able to read this.
For catches, It seems he is a little consistent here. Can catch up to 9 times, which is a lot. Only 4 games he had less than 5 receptions, which is good. And, for the whole season, caught only 73 footballs. For a deep threat, this is what I would expect for 1000 yards. In comparison, AJ Green (which Brugler compared to a bit) caught only 65 footballs his first year in Cinci (but 97 the second year).
He also averaged just under 15 yards per catch, which is nice for a deep threat. AJ Green averaged 16.3 his first year, and then 13.9 his 2nd year (probably because he was targeted more. He certainly caught more).
Against 5 ranked teams, he did alright against Florida, Alabama, and SC. Brugler could be right in that he is not GOOD against top competition, but I think he has done alright production wise. But he did not even get a TD.
Speaking of TDs, he has 9, which is good for a deep threat.
Only 4 games over 100 yards. =/
10/12 games he scored 1 or less TDs. And only 2 of those games he scored more than one. 7 games without a TD, and I consider 4 of them having good production.
I'm not going to put up the other years. As a freshman he hardly played, and last year he was injured after his 2nd game for the year. Not much to go by here for comparison reasons.
So what can we say here?
- He is a deep threat, but is inconsistent in production as one.
- He hasn't done well against good competition.
- he does have high potential, but is very raw.
What to look for in the videos?
- Many of the things highlighted in bold above. There is a lot of information to look into here when watching the video.
- Basic things, like body control,
- ability to make catches anywhere in his vicinity,
- getting out of press overage
- How he does with the ball in his hands
- Where he plays, and how he plays that role
A lot of things should be looked at here..
That's about all I can find here. If you guys have any more to contribute here, feel free to say so regarding the prospects.
My Personal Pick
I think my personal pick would be Quinton Patton. I get that Hunter is 6'4" with a lot of talent, but the Pats have not been known for developing WRs that well here. Patterson brings MORE consistency, has played better against top competition, can get YAC well, can block better. Judging by the YPC, he can certainly be a deep threat. The fact that he is targeted more, like AJ Green last season, I believe puts your YPC numbers down because you are catching it more than just deep. He is not only targeted more, but has better hands than Hunter, and is a more solid route runner from what I read. Patton has the speed to go deep as well as Hunter. he may be smaller, but I think the Reggie Wayne comparison from SB Nation (don't know who the user is) is a very likely possibility with his pro potential. He can go deep. he can make the difficult catches. He is more CONSISTENT, more NFL READY so we don't have to try and develop him. He has no Injury History, no character issues, and imo will be more likely to succeed in our offense at the next level. That height from Hunter won't matter here if we cannot develop him (which we have a history of not developing WRs well), may get injured, or may pose a locker room disaster. As a first round pick at least (if he goes into the 3rd, I would not mind getting him though).
Despite that Hunter's potential is VERY high, if history tells us anything, the Pats won't be able to get that potential out of him.Add to the fact that with all of his concerns, and inconsistencies, I feel that Patton would be the better pick (he has a good amount of potential too. Who wouldn't want a Reggie Wayne type receiver?).