In 2012, Belichick's drafting behavior changed radically. He picked a DE at #21. From 2005 through 2011 here is the draft position for defensive lineman picked by Bill. 40,127,199,206,207,234,247,248. He was a late round DL drafting machine. Will he revert? Sure, he picked up Bequette at 90 in the third...he just can't resist 300 pounders from SEC schools...late in the draft.
Be advised, Belichick is predictable. He is a value freak. He digs the SEC like a beagle. He doesn't care if the guy is hurt. He likes guys from football families. If the entire team consisted of tight ends whose father played football that would be aok with the coach. Small schools? Loves'em. Hofstra, Howard, Montana State? Bring'em on. Then in 2012? No small schools except for a FA Holmes out of Hillsdale. Yup, you got me on Hillsdale...fair and square.
In interviews, when speaking of players that he has picked Belichick will mention COMPETITION. This explains the list of Patriots players below.
What do the following large (some former), front 7 guys have in common?
Bequette, Hightower, Deaderick, Ellis, Love, Cunningham, Mayo, Warren, Anderson, Pryor, Carter and Spikes.
Times up...they all played in the SEC. Belichick likes big defensive guys from the SEC. You like a big D lineman later in the draft? If he is from an SEC school, you may be right. If he is a veteran FA....you may be even righter.
THE LAST 7 YEARS OF PATRIOT'S DRAFTS AND HOW THEY WILL DRAFT THIS YEAR
I have broken down the last 7 years of Patriots drafts. (please remember this before you start whining about players that I have missed '05 back). I have dropped kickers and QB's from the stat sheet.
Once we have completed the statistical portion of this post, my blind, fumbling attempt at predicting 2013 DRAFT will begin.
2006-2012 61 total picks
7 first rounders
27 fifth-seventh rounds
Averaging 9 picks a year. Coach likes to wheel and deal his way to add a couple more picks...like 13 more in 7 years.
The coach is a second round picking machine. He'd give up Bon Jovi tix for a second rounder.
WHAT HE DID WITH THE PICKS (AVG. = starters/number drafted)
Coach Belichick is not the most efficient evaluator of collegiate defensive backs.
Defensive backs - In seven years, coach has invested a 24, 27, 33, 34, 41, 48, 62, 129, 197, 202, 219, 224, 229 on defensive backs, for thirteen total picks. He has spent more high picks on this position than anywhere else. We are left with McCourty, a solid starter and Dennard who is developing along with Dowling who doesn't play much...ever.
Offense TE/WR/RB - 21, 36, 42, 56,73, 83, 90, 106, 113, 153, 159, 208, 232, 235 on this group. 15 picks in all. Edelman, Slater, Hernandez, Gronk, Ridley, Vereen, Ebert remain. I will call it 3 starters.
Offensive line - 17,58,123,136,138,170,171,198,205,205,208,209,247. The coach likes to pick O line late, But, his starters were not picked late. Vollmer, Solder remain as "starters" out of 13 picks. Cannon will change this in 2013? Remember. We are talking '06 and up.
Linebackers – 10,25, 53,62,78,97,180,191,197,211. Ten picks have left us with Hightower, Spikes and Mayo. Those FA's and assorted undrafted players are always present in the Belichick Linebacker mix.
Defensive line – 21,40,90,127,199,206,207,234,247,248. Bill Belichick has picked ten defensive linemen in the last seven drafts. Nine remain on roster (+Vinny '05). Love, Deaderick, Jones almost have have starter counts. Notice he doesn't pick high....ever.
In seven years we have 7 first round picks Jones, Hightower, Mayo, Solder, Maroney, Merriweather, McCourty.
Overall 61 picks = 14 starters (From what I have read, this is about average for the NFL)
BELICHICK TENDENCY TIME:
Ok, if he actually uses the 29th... What will coach do?
He doesn't draft WR's high...gets'em, as FA's...duh.
Until Jones, never drafts DL high...ever.
Always drafts OL high...29th ain't too high with lots of OL's already gone.
LB? Mayo and Hightower 10 and 25....does he like an LB this year? Is there an SEC LB around 29? Not unless one of the Georgia guys drops.
Has picked 13 DB's in 7 years. Hayden and Cyprien are nearby...does he like them?
TE ...if the Notre Dame TE drops, Bill will want him.
RB...Bill had his running back splurge with Ridley and Vereen.
I say he trades out for a 2014 1st rounder and a 2013 2nd or some such. Issue here is most GM's have actually studied Bill and learned that he is screwing them at every turn. So major swaps are more difficult to pull off. If a guy drops into Bill's value wheelhouse....? One of the draft sites suggested the D lineman from SMU which would be fine if SMU was in the SEC...which they ain't.
PREDICTION - Jesse Williams, Alabama...big, multi talented, from another country...big, played inside and outside..did I mention he's big? Started 26 games in two years for Saban...two national titles...played basketball.
Jamar Taylor, CB Boise state...was injured...Bill loves guys who've been injured...He's a DB. Bill picks DB's like a fiend. If this guy is from a football family and was a champion frisbee player? Put a bow on him.
Finally...Eddie Lacey Alabama....long shot of the century, but, I'm due.
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