It’s Denver week. While the headlines and the features won’t be about another installment of the Brady v. Manning rivalry, it is still an important game for retaining home field advantage. The Patriots will head into the always hostile Mile High, and they will be looking for their first win in Denver since 2011.
New England is coming off of a 30-23 win on Monday Night Football against conference rival Baltimore Ravens, in a game that was not nearly as close as the score suggests. The Patriots racked up 496 total yards against the league’s top defense and had control of the lead for the entire game. In contrast, Denver will be attempting to recover from a soul-wrenching 13-10 loss against the Tennessee Titans, a game in which Tennessee secured a crucial victory after passing for just 73 yards and rushing for 180.
The Broncos were able to hold the Titans to a mere 6-for-16 on third downs, yet Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense converted a putrid 3-out-of-11 third downs. With Denver struggling to maintain a competent offense, it’s obvious that the matchup to watch this Sunday afternoon will be New England’s fourth-ranked offense squaring off against Denver’s third-ranked defense.
From a statistics standpoint, the focal point of Josh McDaniels’ gameplan should be to pound the rock. The Broncos have league’s best defense against the pass, allowing just 183.5 passing yards per game. However, they are 29th in the league defending the run, allowing 127.2 yards per game on the ground. It will be important to establish the run game early, unlike last year’s AFC Championship, where Tom Brady was New England’s leading rusher with three rushes for 11 yards.
The weakness of the Broncos’ already weak run defense is rushing towards the left. According to NFL Game Statistics & Information System, the Broncos are ranked last in the league defending against rushes to the left tackle (6.59 ypc) and 30th defending against rushes to the left guard (6.00 ypc).
With LeGarrette Blount having a career year in the backfield, look for the Patriots to rely on their gap running scheme to set the tone. New England can report Cameron Fleming as eligible and attack this weak run defense with their athletic guards leading the way. Shaq Mason has solidified himself as a starter based on his abilities in the running game, and expect the Patriots to load up with James Devlin and incorporate this gap scheme consistently. The Patriots even took advantage of this against Baltimore’s first-ranked rush defense and had more success than most; for instance, the Patriots and Mason earned praise from Jon Gruden on Monday Night with this powerful 13-yard rush.
It’s clear that the Patriots are more committed to the run this year than the last. Even against the top rush defense, the Patriots brought out Fleming as the sixth offensive lineman for 18 of 68 snaps. Expect even more of that come this Sunday: loading up the box and attempting to impose their will on this Broncos front seven.
Teams have found the blueprint to attacking the Broncos and their stellar defense. Denver’s division rival, the Oakland Raiders, had extreme success rushing the ball. The Raiders finished the game with 43 attempts for 218 yards, including this solid seven yard gain on a rush that demonstrates a power play similar to the previous gif.
The key to the Patriots’ success in the run game this Sunday will be getting to the second level. When Blount gets past the line of scrimmage and rolling, he is one of the best in the league at dominating the second level and punishing tacklers. The main issue last season was Blount getting stutffed at the line of scrimmage, but this year’s revamped offensive line has had success creating cutback lanes for when they run zone and creating holes with power and gap plays.
Once the run game has been properly established, the offensive playbook opens up tremendously. New England was fortunate to get enough respect for the run game on Monday night to open up play action passes and use deceiving formations and personnel to spread the ball around.
Arguably the biggest play of the night was created based off of the defenses’ respect for Blount and New England’s running game. Brady’s 79-yard touchdown pass to Hogan practically sealed the deal for the Patriots, and it was one of the easiest throws of the night for Brady.
The Patriots lined up in shotgun formation with 11 personnel. With just one running back, one tight end, three receivers, and in shotgun, this should scream pass for the defense. However, with one simple fake in the backfield, Brady effectively freezed the two inside linebackers and forced Eric Weddle to take a full step upfield, leaving the seam wide open. The pull around by Mason helped trigger the linebackers and create space in the middle of the field. With no help over the top, it was an easy connection of Brady to Hogan as Hogan burned by Matt Elam for the easy score.
With McDaniels and Brady being two of the smartest at their positions, New England can also look to deceive the Broncos in heavy personnel. Unlike the last play where the Patriots’ formation favored pass and they still fooled the defense, New England was also successful passing in jumbo personnel.
On this particular play against the Ravens, the Patriots came out in 12 personnel and an extra offensive lineman. With a play action fake, the stingy Baltimore defense failed to even notice Martellus Bennett slip out into the open field. The second level was completely consumed with the play fake and the movement of the offensive line, and with the two deep safeties backed off nearly 20 yards, it was a simple decision for Brady.
These effective play fakes came against a defense that was ranked first in multiple categories heading into the game. The Patriots will turn to the ground against a Denver defense that carries a lot of names, but that is struggling stopping the run and matching other teams’ physicality. These two teams facing off this Sunday afternoon are drastically different from last season. With an increased reliance on the run and an improved offensive line, this balanced New England offense will head into Denver hoping to secure their seventh straight season with 12 or more wins.