The biggest moves the Patriots could make this offseason is to extend the core players of the defense, which includes defensive end Chandler Jones. The Patriots certainly have an idea of how much they would offer him, but we as a fanbase don't. In order to put together an idea of what the cost of a Chandler Jones extension could be Miguel Benzan, who we know as @patscap on Twitter, has put together comparable deals using the model of both Robert Quinn and Cameron Jordan's extensions.
This is the model coming from Robert Quinn's extension:
Using the model here, the APY for Jones would be roughly $14.2M. That's not going to happen, because Quinn is a superior edge defender to Jones. The extension would lower Jones' cap hit about $1M down to roughly $6.75M, but would also induce cap hits north of $15M in the final 3 years. Even though Chandler Jones is arguably a top 20 edge defender in the NFL, that's too much cap into one player. For that much cap space, you can have two quality defensive ends on the roster.
Here is the Cameron Jordan model:
This model offers both a comparison in both APY and new money in the deal. The APY is roughly around $11M, which the Patriots can better afford to build a team around. If the Patriots match in APY, they can save about $1.125M on the cap in 2016. As is the case with the Quinn extension model, the Patriots are looking at giant cap numbers for Jones in the final three years, although not nearly as high. That's going to be an issue for them down the road.
There is reason for the Patriots to strike a deal with Chandler Jones. His upcoming 2016 cap hit is about $7.79M and an extension likely lowers the number for this season. In addition it allows for Jones to have financial security and play for a team that knows how to best utilize them. Even though the narrative is that Chandler Jones could price himself out of the Patriots range and they should trade him while he has value. With the Patriots likely in need of generating cap space in 2016, don't be surprised if they go the extension route to lower Jones' cap number in 2016.