The New England Patriots announced the signing of running back LeGarrette Blount and the response was decidedly apathetic.
"How very....whelming?," one redditor wrote.
"It's a good signing, but definitely not over of underwhelming," another redditor responded. "It's perfect...whelmig [sic]."
"The appropriate amount of whelming," a third chimed in.
"I don't think I've ever felt as neutral about a signing as I do now," a fourth replied. "Blount isn't a great back. He's not a bad back. He feels like a player who lies directly on the Dalton line for running backs. It's a plus that he's familiar with the team and the culture but he's never really done anything that makes me think he's going to contribute anything more than the next guy."
"Don't have a problem with him coming back," a fifth added. "But wouldn't have had a problem if he didn't."
"And the crowd goes mild," a sixth said.
Blount signed a deal with a $100,000 signing bonus (hardly anything for a proven veteran), an extra $40,000 workout bonus, and a $100,000 roster bonus. Essentially he'll make $240,000 if he makes the roster, and add it to his base salary of $760,000- so he's good for $1 million this season. He has an additional $1 million in incentives, so he can double his cash flow with a great season.
It's a low risk signing that increases the Patriots flexibility in the draft because now the team doesn't have an immediate hole on the roster. New England no longer has to leave the draft with a running back, but instead can take advantage if they feel that a top quality player has slipped down the board.
So right off the bat, there shouldn't be any real displeasure about the contract with Blount. It guarantees little, and serves as a hedge against a volatile draft.
Instead, let's evaluate Blount as a runner to see that he's actually a good running back and that he can still contribute in 2016.
Last year, Blount picked up 703 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on 165 attempts, averaging 4.26 yards per carry (YPC) behind the Patriots porous offensive line.
The combination of Steven Jackson and Joey Iosefa averaged a mere 2.72 YPC behind the same line, although it should be noted that Blount benefit from the presence of Julian Edelman, and non-injured Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, and Scott Chandler. Jackson and Iosefa were playing alongside injured Brandon LaFell and Keshawn Martin for the bulk of their snaps.
Blount averaged 4.56 YPC on first down, compared to 4.04 YPC from Dion Lewis and 2.60 YPC from Brandon Bolden. Per the Expected Points Added (EPA) model, which can be used to determine whether the previous play helped or hurt the team's drive, Blount was the only back of that trio to average a positive contribution on first down; even Lewis averaged out to be a negative rusher on first down.
Lewis was far more successful on second down, averaging 5.04 YPC to Blount's 4.50 YPC, and both were the team's only positive contributors per EPA.
Blount's weakness comes on third down, but not for the reasons that you might suspect. All of the Patriots running backs struggled on third down, and quarterback Tom Brady actually had the most carries (15). Blount came in second with 12, Bolden was in third with 11, and James White was in fourth with 8. Lewis only fielded 3 carries on third down.
What might come as a surprise is that Blount was at his most successful on 3rd down in short yardage situations, which is counter to most of our expectations. Early in the 2015 season, we noted that Blount ranked 121st out of 154 qualifying running backs over the past 20 seasons in short yardage production.
Of the 29 running backs with 8+ 3rd-and-short attempts in 2015, Blount ranked a respectably average 15th in EPA, ahead of free agent running backs Lamar Miller (16th), Matt Forte (21st), James Starks (22nd), and Chris Ivory (24th).
Blount didn't produce in third down scenarios where the Patriots needed three or more yards, but even that shouldn't be much of a concern. Blount had four carries in this scenario, and three came in clock-killing situations, with fourth quarter leads and only a couple minutes left in the game. The Patriots ran the ball with Blount on the field roughly two-thirds of the time overall, and that rate just increases in end-game snaps.
Overall, Blount paints as a picture as a quality first and second down rusher and a viable short-yardage back on third down. He will never thrive in a third-and-long situation, but the team has loaded up on players like Dion Lewis, James White, Brandon Bolden, and Donald Brown so Blount won't be needed.
Blount is not some replacement level player that can be picked up off the street in the middle of the season. 40% of his rushes were considered positive by the EPA model, which trailed only Lewis' 43%. He found a way to produce behind a bad offensive line- a line that will hopefully improve in 2016. Blount might not be a great receiver, but he has his role as a runner between the tackles and he does it well.
News of Blount's signing deserves a response of more than just apathy at his contract value. Bill Belichick has brought back a good runner on a cheap deal, and that's worthy of excitement.