FanPost

The Magic Number For The Patriots

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There are several important pieces to this New England roster who are going in to the final year of their contracts. Bill Belichick and Nick Caserio have set themselves up to retain these important players and more.

If the salary cap raises $10 million once again for the 2017 season, the NFL salary cap will be set at $165 million per team. The Patriots have $103 million committed to the 2017 cap. This means the Patriots should have $62 million in projected cap space and this is their magic number. This will be more cap space than any other team by far. Not only will the Patriots be set to continue the immediate success with the current state of the franchise, but they will be also be able to go out and do what the teams who haven't been winning as much usually do and pay for talent in hopes of getting even better.

Of course there is no surefire way to predict what certain players will want and what they will do on (and off) the field before contracts are negotiated, offered and signed, and there will be players that are offered more by other teams than the Patriots are willing to pay, but if they do lose players in free agency next offseason, no one will be able to say it was because the Patriots didn't have the money. There are several ways to breakdown where the $62 million could be spent. Let's look at a few of those ways...

The Patriots are currently talking to Rob Gronkowski's agents, Drew and Jason Rosenhaus, and are discussing a potential new deal for the superstar tight end. Gronkowski has 4 years and $27 million remaining on his current deal, but if you ask anybody around the league, you will get the same answer: Dude's underpaid.

Even Gronk isn't shy about it:
The Patriots will likely, in good faith, extend and restructure Gronkowski to give him a raise as he has clearly earned it.
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Dont'a Hightower has a $7.799 million cap hit in 2016 playing under the fifth year option and should be the first domino to fall if the Patriots decide to try and keep their core together. Hightower can be expected to get a deal close to 5 years/$49-52 million and between $14-18 million guaranteed. Hightower can pretty much do anything asked of him on the field and will get paid like it regardless of who is writing the check.

Jamie Collins' cap hit is about $1.2 million for the 2016 season. 4 years/$45 million with somewhere between $17-21 million guaranteed. Collins is as good in coverage as any linebacker in football and has the ability to be one of the very best defensive players in the league.

Collins and Hightower are the two young core players for the Patriots defense and when either guy has missed time, the defense was not nearly as successful as it was when they were on the field. This is not to say that both players have not had their fair share of injuries, but this can be hammered out in offset language between the two sides when contract negotiations begin.

Ultimately, the Patriots should be able to offer fair market value, if not more than fair to both Collins and Hightower in an effort to retain each of them. This is not lost on anyone inside the Patriots organization, or any other franchise for that matter.
USATSI_9074839-655x490.0.jpg Chris Humphreys/USA TODAY Sports
Malcolm Butler is set to make $600k this season and will be a restricted free agent next March. This is a little more difficult for Butler because he is not exactly in position to demand a new deal as the Patriots have most of the control in this specific scenario. The Patriots have the option to put a first round tender on Butler after this season if they choose to. This would basically make Malcolm Butler worth almost $4 million for the next season unless another team decides to forfeit a first round pick and sign him to an offer sheet. This would be an extremely rare situation and it hasn't happened for years in the NFL.

Jabaal Sheard has a lot of talent and potential and it showed on film last season. If he can put together a nice and healthy 2016 campaign, he may be pretty overpaid if he gets to the open market. If New England elects to try and re-sign him before that happens, a deal for 2 or 3 years/$15-20 million with about 45-50% guaranteed should be able to keep Sheard although it would be slightly overpaying him.

Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon will be unrestricted free agents as well. The Patriots will still have enough if they decide to take care of Gronkowski, Butler, Hightower and Collins for Ryan and Harmon. But these are two players that Belichick and Caserio could atually let go into the open market before trying to re-sign either of them, if at all. Ryan will most likely get average market value around $6 million per year and the Patriots will probably be fine seeing him walk because they have replacements already being groomed in Cyrus Jones, Darryl Roberts, Justin Coleman, etc. Duron Harmon may be a little more difficult to watch leave because he has been a very helpful third safety for the Patriots and has allowed them to play a lot of three safety packages which can be exceptionally important when cornerback injuries occur. Jordan Richards may be able to replace Harmon, but the Patriots must be willing to roll the dice if Harmon makes it to the open market without a new deal.

Other free agents include Rob Ninkovich, Chris Long, and Sebastian Vollmer as well as others. Ninkovich and Long will most likely be easily affordable for the Patriots once again, and even if one or both have outstanding 2016 seasons, the Patriots won't worry too much if they have to replace either or. Sebastian Vollmer is probably on his way out of Foxborough unless he has a completely healthy and productive 2016 season.
This is exactly what the Patriots have been preparing for. There is no reason to panic about having a ton of free agents at the same time when the money is there to retain most, if not all of the players that the organizations deems necessary to re-sign.

The New England Patriots are not built around any one player and will be able to conduct their team building process as they have in the past. Nothing will change the Patriot way in the near future so long as Belichick and Caserio are in charge.

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