More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

6 days ago: New England Patriots NFL football head coach Bill Belichick speaks at a news conference in Foxborough, Mass. Monday, Nov. 16, 2009, in the aftermath of Sunday's 35-34 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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I am stunned, but not surprised.  I am stunned because as our biggest rival in the AFC, a win would've meant a lot: a chance to go 2-4 against Indy, a better face-to-face record for potential home field advantage (if tie breakers come into play), seeding... you name it.  Most of all, I simply wanted to beat Indy.  And for a large portion of the game, New England had the upper hand.

I am not surprised because the Colts are that good.  When the Patriots get up on a team with as wide a margin as they had, it's usually lights out.  Rivals simply can't recover and usually get stymied in all three phases of the game.  Not so with the Colts, especially Peyton Manning.  I remember thinking to myself that Manning just wasn't clicking with his receivers Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie.  If he DID begin clicking, it would create problems.

For most of the first half, Tom Brady appeared to be firing on all cylinders and doing an excellent job of finding the weak spots in the Indy defense.  As I discussed in my game preview, picking on the young, inexperienced Indy secondary was one of the keys to success and Brady did a good job of that.  With the half coming to a close, Brady had managed 24 points and our defense held Peyton Manning and crew to 14, an admirable task.  I remember thinking, "This is cool.  We seem to have control of the game, but it ain't over until it's over."  Boy, was I right.

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Third arm's the charm. Randy Moss catches the ball - and Antoine Bethea - for a touchdown.

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Mike Petraglia offers some quick hits from Tom Brady's Post-Game Presser:

"We had an opportunity to win the game. We’ve been working on that for a long time. Just came up short."

"We had a lot of good plays today. Coach has a lot of confidence that we can gain a yard-and-a-half to win the game."

"Coach is being aggressive and I love that about him. We just came up short."

"We just said we’re going. It’s a bummer. There’s a lot of football left."

"He’s thinking we have our offense on the field and we have over 450 yards of offense." Brady explaining logic of going for it.

"Up 13 with four minutes left, and you can’t close them out, that’s going to stick with us for a long time."

"We’ve got to make improvements. I know why we lost. I don’t think it’s a surprise. Play a good team and you can’t miss opportunities."

"I never second-guess coach Belichick. It’s easy to second guess."

Advanced NFL Stats:  Belichick's 4th down decision was statistically the right one.

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it.

You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

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Was this a questionable call?

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

6 days ago: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne (87) cuts in front of New England Patriots cornerback Jonathan Wilhite (24) during the first half an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009 in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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You can't give Peyton Manning the ball.  You need to keep it out of his hands.  And he proved that.  Whether or not Kevin Faulk had the first down will be discussed ad infinitum.  Whether or not Belichick should've gone for it on 4 and 2 will be questioned.  Discuss.

Nice start, but I'm afraid of a momentum shift.  If we let Manning set the pace, our DLs will be gassed.  We're getting the ball first in the second half.

Hey gang, here's your Sunday early games open thread.  I will be at my daughter's cheerleading competition where spirit fingers will be involved, but that's another story.  I will at least have a few other dads to commiserate with.  I think I'm going to start a business with a mobile bar and big screen TV for events like these.  I'd make a fortune.  Talk to you tonight.

by Stephan Savoia - AP

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Here we are.  Week 10 and it's the Colts.  This is a critical game, but not because we want to beat up on one of our biggest rivals.  Unless both teams implode in the second half of the season, it's a forgone conclusion that they'll win their respective divisions.  What's the first thing looked at when determining home field advantage in a playoff scenario?  Head to head record.  If seeding works out and we happen to face Indy in January, we want them in Foxboro.  Take Peyton Manning out of his dome and put him in the snow, that's what I way.

But there's still the emotional part of beating Indy.  We're 2-1 in the post season against Peyton and the boys, but we're 1-4 overall in our last 5 matchups.  As a fan, me no likey.  At about 11pm ET, I really want to see this face:

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Ugghh, 1 in 4 in the RedZone for the Miami game.  Don't fret - Moss's 71 yard TD (remember the stiff arm against rookie corner Vontae Davis?) doesn't count, so 1 in 4 is not that bad.  Still, no one likes 3 instead of 6, so let's get our act together boys and start converting in the RedZone.  Especially at the Lube.  Against Fivehead.

No, I haven't gone to the darkside.  I'm still your old, loveable MPF (emphasis on old).  I had a fun lead up to this most heralded game, but I'm still looking to head into the Lube and end Indy's undefeated streak in style.  Looking at the injury report, we appear to have key folks coming back.  Granted, it was the media portion of practice and those players could've sat during the closed portion, but it bodes well for us.  Of particular note: WR Julian Edelman, RB Sammy Morris, C Dan Koppen, S Brandon Meriweather, and LT Matt Light (Doubtful).

Out of all of these returning players, I think Edelman will be the most impactful, IF his arm has healed enough.  He'll provide a nice third receiver option for Brady and could rotate in and out with Wes Welker to keep him fresh.  I would then suggest Sammy Morris in order of importance.  When Laurence Maroney is having trouble, Morris seems to find a way to work through the holes.  He's also been providing a nice checkdown target for Tom Brady.

All in all, these returns to practice are good to see.  Or maybe Darth Hoodius is making Indy prepare for them when they may not return?  No, he would never do that with an injury report, would he?

Ben Watson warming up for some action against the Colts on Sunday.

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Bill Belichick details the process of picking which plays to run, which ones to throw out and how to prioritize what the players need to know.

You always want to prioritize what's important, because by the end of the week we're sitting here on Friday or Saturday and every player has been told 1,000 things: ‘Do this,' ‘Do that,' ‘When this happens, do this,' ‘When that happens, do that,' ‘If they do this, you're going to check to that,' ‘Read this guy,' ‘Read that guy.' He's got 1,000 things in his mind and I think it's important to boil it back down to, ‘OK, those are all techniques and they're all adjustments and they're things we need to do, but what do we need to do to win this game? Let's make sure we've got first things first.' Because somewhere between those 1,000 things, there's one and then there's 1,000. There's got to be some kind of priority, so I think every time you come to the end of the week, you want to bring it back to what are the most important things to do as a team and at each position, whether it's tight ends, ‘Here are the three most important things for you to do this week.' For the corners, ‘Here are the three most important things for you.' That type of thing, so that you don't lose sight of the big picture and so you don't take a chance on players not knowing what the most important things are and making those decision themselves. You remind them that this is how the game is played. This is what your role is. This is what your job is. First things first.

 

Friday is certainly a coming together time and Saturday a lot of times is just a further coming together or further solidifying. Maybe we put some things on the back burner. ‘We've got this if we need it.' ‘We've got that if we need it.' ‘If this situation comes up, this is how we're going to handle it, but this is where we're going to go with. Here's how we're going to play the game.' Now if we have to adjust it, we adjust it. Because again, when you go through all of that in the beginning of the week, the players don't really know - and sometimes the coaches don't know for sure either - exactly how it's going to unfold. Again, I think to just identify and get everybody on the same page - ‘Ok here's how we're going to start, so let's don't get confused with this other stuff. If we need it, we'll come to it, but that's not what we're going to lead with.' So then the players can really zero in on, ‘Ok, these calls, these adjustments...if this is called and that happens, here's what we're going to do. There's another play were that might happen, but that play is 40 plays down the road. That's not what we're thinking about right away.'

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