One of the most interesting and hotly contested battles of Patriots' Training Camp will be Corner Back.  With 8 players vying for 2 starting positions, this is going to be a fun one.  The departure of Asante Samuel threw everything into a tailspin, or so our rivals would hope.  I don't believe so and here's why: Ellis Hobbs.  Ellis, considered the weaker of the 2007 starting CBs, was "targetted" throughout the season.  Come to find out he was legitimately weak - he had an injured groin and shoulder.  Another unfair observation?  Do tell.  Ellis was burned in the Super Bowl by Plaxico Burress for the game winning TD.  Horsepucky.  The injured Hobbs was left alone with a Top 5 WR and got beat.  Where the heck was his backup?  Where were the safties?  Nowhere to be found.  Why, on earth, do you leave Plaxico Burress covered by 1 guy...in the Super Bowl...inside the 20?

Alright, enough crying over spilt milk.  With 8 corner backs, someone will have to go.  NFL teams can have an 80 man roster during training camp, but must cut down to 53 for the regular season.  The Patriots are at 77 and will be fine for camp, but will have to ditch 24 players.  I'm guessing at least 1, maybe 2, will come from the corner position.  Here's how I see it breaking down:

Ellis Hobbs - Ellis is the man.  In my mind, a guaranteed starter unless something goes horribly wrong, like being put on PUP at the start of the season.  With 4 years experience, all of it with the Pats, he knows the system better than anyone else.

Fernando Bryant - Coming up on his tenth year, Fernando is the most experienced of all the players at this position, but is a first year Patriot.  Mike Reiss thinks Fernando will be a top contender for the second CB position, but only time will tell.  I think he gets the nod.

Mike Richardson - If you didn't know who Mike was, not your bad.  He spent the 2007 season on the PUP.  At Notre Dame, Mike had an excellent career and as a senior, was thought of as a leader for the DBs on the team.  I think he gets another year to prove himself.

Lewis Sanders - At 6-1 and 210 lbs, Lewis is the largest of the corners.  With 8 years in the NFL, Lewis could add some much needed experience if the young acquisitions don't come up-to-speed fast enough. 

Antwain Spann - Antwain has been moved from the practice squad to active duty a number of times.  With his varied success on the team, I see him at risk and one of the players most likely to be cut.

Jason Webster - Playing only 1 2007 game for the Bills (most likely due to injury), Jason's chances of a permanent roster spot seem slim. at best.  A solid player at the beginning of his 8 year career, I see his roster spot in jeopardy.

Terrence Wheatley - He's super fast and can double as a kickoff returner, so I see Terrence hanging around and possibly doing some things for the Pats.  If he can come up to speed as an NFL CB, his quickness could turn him into a great ball hawk.  This is a rookie draftee to watch.

Jonathan Wilhite - Of the young dudes drafted this year, I think Wilhite may be one of the most vulnerable.  To gain a roster spot, he'll have to shine on special teams, but I think, at 5-9 185 lbs, he's small for this role.  So isn't Ellis Hobbs, but he has more experience in the system and has proven himself.

Here's my final breakdown classified as starter, backup or sub-packages, vulnerable: Ellis Hobbs, Fernando Bryant, Mike Richardson, Lewis Sanders, Terrence Wheatley, Antwain Spann, Jason Webster,  Jonathan Wilhite

Just a couple of quick thoughts and some questions for youse (that's what 3 days on "Long GUY lund" does to a guy).

There's been some rumors of Brett Favre with a Dolphin on his helmet.  As ludicrous as this may sound, it wouldn't be a bad idea.  Just think about the tangled web of QB stuff going on down there and you get the picture.  Pull in a vet like Favre and he can help the young guys come up to speed while providing much needed seniority on the field.  Not too far fetched, but I'm doubtful it'll happen.  If it did, it'd be classic Parcells.

While preparing for Around the AFC East, Week 7 (we start the questions and answers on Tuesdays), Matty I at SBNation's Phinsider asked me about Matt Slater.  I won't dive to deeply into my answer (you'll have to wait until Friday), but Slater has lined up at both WR and S during mini-camps.  I said during my bio of him that I thought it was a smart idea to put a kid like Matt at safety.  Why not take a player with WR hands and line him up as a DB?  Seems like it'd work to me.  I plan on keeping an eye on this guy during training camp visits.

All for now.  I have a few training camp stories in the works so look for them in the next few days.  Good to be home again...

weblogs.cltv.com

 I typically don't cruise betting sites.  In fact, I work hard to avoid them.  If I get another stupid popup to some salacious site in the Ukraine, I'm going to throw my computer against the wall, so I don't need to tempt fate by visiting "popup heaven".  Yes, I stay away, but this particular site, capperspicks.com is not bad.  Let me offer this disclaimer: I am, in no way, affiliated with this site nor am I suggesting you should run off and type in your credit card number on this site and launch your internet betting hobby.  No Sir.  I DO suggest that you use all the information you can find about your team and others to stay informed.  Especially when they say the New England Patriots are the best team out there:

BetUS NFL Futures Odds

To Win AFC East

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -1000
Buffalo Bills +800
New York Jets +1000
Miami Dolphins +1200

To win the AFC Championship

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +175
San Diego Chargers +450
Indianapolis Colts +500
Jacksonville Jaguars +900
Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
Cleveland Browns +1600
Tennessee Titans +2000
Denver Broncos +2000
Cincinnati Bengals +2200
Baltimore Ravens +2500

The smaller the number, the better.  As you can see, the AFC East will be a stomping (-1000) with the AFC Championship being a bit closer.

The odds for AFC Teams to win the Superbowl are interesting, to say the least:

BetUS NFL Futures Odds - To Win Super Bowl XLIII

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +1400
New England Patriots +325
New York Jets +10000
Buffalo Bills +8000
Miami Dolphins +10000
Baltimore Ravens +6000
Cincinnati Bengals +4500
Pittsburgh Steelers +1750
Cleveland Browns +3000
Indianapolis Colts +700
Tennessee Titans +3500
Houston Texans +6500
San Diego Chargers +700
Denver Broncos +4000
Kansas City Chiefs +10000

Over at the NFC, Dallas is favored to win the Championship - I'm not too surprised with that pick (it's hard for a Superbowl champ to repeat).  So based on this site, Brady will be squaring off against Romo; that'd be a good game.  Oh, it almost slipped my mind: T.O. and Moss.  Can you say, "Media Circus?"  I knew you could.

What does this tell us?  Absolutely nothing.  I do, however, place more credence on betting sites than I do "what if's" from ESPN and sportsonline.com (make sure you read the good with the bad, too).  Why?  These guys are putting real dollars and cents on the line; some writer in a cubicle is just pulling crap off of Google, chatting it up with his buddies at the local watering hole, and writing an article.  Ok, that was a little harsh (and it sounds an awful lot like me!).  Some might actually be TALKING to players, coaches and league officials.  These numbers will certainly change as the season moves on.  My point is, gather information from everywhere you can, but try to cultivate as many reasonable sources as you can - both friendly and not-so-friendly viewpoints.  Happy reading.

www.athlonsports.com

Normally, I support a hometown boy.  Heck, I'll even put my homerism in overdrive and be totally subjective.  But THIS hometown boy should learn his place.  Matt Ryan should keep his mouth shut.  Who cares whether or not he respects Goodell's opinion:

Matt Ryan isn’t apologizing for benefiting from a system that allows top NFL draft picks to receive massive contracts. Even so, he appreciates where Roger Goodell was coming from last week when the commissioner questioned paying millions in guaranteed salary to rookies who have yet to play a down in the league.

"You can also understand the other side of it, the concern of veterans who have been in the league 10, 12 years and proven themselves but not seen the money," Ryan said in a phone interview Tuesday. "I can understand both sides."

To be fair, everyone is entitled to an opinion.  Ya know, when you've been around for a while, it's expected that you can speak out about what's going on.  And Matty has thrown...wait.  0 TD's in the NFL.  0 completions.  C'mon, has he even made a single handoff in an NFL game?  Nope.

Matt's 6 year $72m with $34.75m guaranteed is, in a word, nauseating.  Top flight rookies are demanding ridiculous cash.  Matt Ryan, Jake Long, and Darren McFadden all got mega deals without ever playing a minute of NFL football.  Insulting to the vets?  Yup.  Should some sort of rookie salary cap be instituted?  You betcha.  The NFL is in dire need of a sanity check for rookie salaries.  The NBA Rookie Scale Contracts keep salaries at a reasonable level until a newbie proves himself.

Why does this happen?  First, NFL rules, or lack thereof, allow them to happen.  Second, desperate teams hang their futures on a few stars.  They throw wheelbarrows full of cash at these young, college studs in hopes they can drag their sorry butts out of the dregs and back to relevance.  These teams will never learn.  It's not the player.  Well, maybe not.  There's probably a few examples of a player rescuing a team, but I would argue it's short lived.  It's the SYSTEM, my friend.

Players WANT to play for successful systems like the Patriots and the Colts.  These franchises have a sensible front office, great coaches, and seasoned veterans a rookie can learn from.  That's the mark of a great team.  Give me that any day over a team throwing cash at unproven "stars".

So Matt, even though you're a hometown boy, keep your mouth shut.  Just because you're newly rich and have a pulpit doesn't mean you should open your mouth and have an opinion.  Show me something, dude.  It's a shame we don't play Atlanta in 2008.  It would've been cool to see Shawn Crable or Jerod Mayo flatten you.

In this week's installment of Around the AFC East, Brian G. from Buffalo Bills blog, Buffalo Rumblings, discusses the Lee Evans-Trent Edwards connection.

Premier wide receiver Lee Evans had a bit of a disappointing year in 2007.  Considering his previous public support of J.P. Losman as the starter, do you think Evans and quarterback Trent Edwards will connect well enough for him to rebound this season?  How will Evans be affected by the addition of rookie wide receiver James Hardy?

Buffalo Rumblings:  First, to address the quarterback issue - there's been this belief among Bills fans that because Evans was supportive of the team starting Losman, there was bad blood between Evans and Edwards.  That's just not the case.  Evans and Losman came into the league together (both were first-round picks in 2004) and are friends, so why wouldn't Evans want the guy who had tossed him 82 balls the year before to start?  Evans and Edwards are fine - in fact, in the month before training camp starts, the two plan to meet to work out together and work on timing and chemistry.

Evans' statistics were disappointing in 2007, but the only chance he has at a "rebound" year is if Edwards makes strides as the team's starter and he's not facing double coverage every play.  Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish are very solid working out of the slot, but they did nothing to keep coverage off of Evans last season.  Often times, Edwards had nowhere to go, so he'd dump the ball off to one of the team's mediocre tight ends or RB Fred Jackson.  The man you mentioned - rookie WR James Hardy - holds the key to whether or not Evans puts up better numbers in '08.  Time will tell, but Edwards seems on the up and up and Hardy is impossible to defend in the red zone.  I'd place a bet on Evans having much better numbers, though I wouldn't go so far as to say he'd match his 2006 production.

My take:  If Trent Edwards has the arm strength to take advantage of Evans' speed and the confidence to stretch the field - and doesn't succumb to the comfort of dumping it off - they'll most definitely be a duo to contend with.  This is especially true if opposing teams begin to buy Hardy as a real threat and abandon the double-teaming of Evans.

Thanks to Brian G. and be sure to head over to Buffalo Rumblings to see my response to his PatsPulpit question.

Matty I over at the Dolphins blog, The Phinsider, discusses the tenuous state of the quarterback situation for 2008.

Bill Parcells called in to talk with Dennis and Callahan on WEEI this week, and was asked who Miami's starting quarterback will be this season.  Wouldn't we all like to know?  Coach Tony Sparano says he wants someone to emerge by the third preseason game, but he's not sure it'll happen.  With both Josh McCown and John Beck getting equal snaps, and rookie Chad Henne a distant third,  Have you seen anything so far in these players that screams "franchise quarterback"?  Only (game)time will tell, but who are you leaning towards to lead the team and why?

Phinsider:  Well I think we should start off by saying that we already know what Josh McCown is.  He's a serviceable quarterback, but he's very rarely going to win you the tough games by himself. 

As far as John Beck and Chad Henne go, I'll admit that I do like both of them and think they both have the potential to become good quarterbacks in this league.  Both have worked hard this offseason and both all have the physical tools needed to succeed.  The question will be, in the words of Bill Parcells, if these quarterbacks have "balls" – the mental toughness needed to play QB at this level.  How will they react after making a mistake?  Will they be able to step up in the pocket and make throws with defenders right in their face?  These questions need to be answered.

As far as this year goes, I believe it will be John Beck starting in week one against the Jets.  And I say this for two reasons.  One, it makes much more sense to start Beck.  Henne is a rookie who will just sit back and learn the ropes in year one; and McCown is a veteran who has shown already what he can do, which isn't anything particularly special.  So why not let John have this season (which isn't going to be a playoff season or anything) to show what he can do?  And two, I believe John is the best of the 3 QBs and that he will win the starting job in camp and in the preseason.

Let me close by saying this: I'm a known John Beck supporter.  And I've put my name on the line on both my site and on Buffalo Rumblings, so I might as well do the same thing on your site and say this: John Beck will open the season as the starter – and he'll play well, too.

As big a Belichick fan as I am, man did I love that special way Parcells had in expressing his opinions.  In this case, he and Matty I are dead on.  What good is awesome athletic ability if it comes with deer-in-the-headlights reaction time or an inability to correctly read the defense?  From the little I know of them so far, I liked Beck a little better too and was surprised to see McCown's name listed first on the Dolphins depth chart.  Someone will eventually be listed first come September, but that's what the pre-season will determine.

Thanks to Matty I, and feel free to head on over to The Phinsider to read my response to his PatsPulpit question.

Last, but certainly not least, we talk to Brian Bassett from an excellent Jets blog, The Jets Blog.

 The Jets have made some fairly significant front office moves.  Of note is the hiring of Scott Cohen as asst. general manager which frees up Terry Bradway to do more scouting.  How do you see this helping the Jets?  Are there any other front office moves you think have been valuable? (submitted by: Pats Pulpit)

The Jets are known as being (believe it or not) a "small market" team, and adding an Assistant GM (Tannenbaum's old role) while keeping both Bradway and Clinkscales to scout, is a good step and one showing progress in the organization, solid distribution of roles while at the same time allowing Tannenbaum more freedom to work on big picture stuff than the nitty gritty signing and releasing of undrafted players and the like.   Tannenbaum also just received a promotion, and now only answers to the team's owner, which further cements that this is his organization to manage and seems to indicate a longer-term stability in the front office that this team hasn't had in quite a while.

 The front office of an NFL franchise is often behind-the-scenes, but is hugely important to the success of a football team, of any sports team for that matter.  Tannenbaum's promotion and answering only to the owner gives a talented administrator the freedom to get things done without too much BS in the middle.  Stability and defined roles works on the field and it's especially important in the office.

Thanks to Brian Bassett for his great info and kudos for an excellent blog, The Jets Blog.  That concludes this week's Around the AFC East.  Have a great weekend!!

In our second installment of Around the AFC East, Matty I talks about changes in the Dolphins' receiver corp.

With the departure of receivers Chris Chambers and Marty Booker, where do you see the Dolphins' receiver corp?  Do Ted Ginn and Derek Hagan have the skills and experience to step up and make the plays they need to in order to help Miami move forward?

The Phinsider: That's a great question.  And I wish I knew.  But here's the thing: I like Ted Ginn a lot.  He's going to be a very good receiver in this league (probably not worth the 9^th overall pick, but even still).  But is he ready to take that step in '08 is the question, especially with defenses not having too much else to worry about in the passing game.

Hagan, who has been working his tail off this offseason, is reportedly looking better than he ever has.  He's always had potential thanks to his size and strength.  It was his inconsistent hands that have always held him back.  But he's reportedly taken care of that issue, which is important for him if he wants to even think about starting.

But more than likely, it will be free agent acquisition Ernest Wilford starting opposite of Ginn.  And Wilford is a perfect compliment to Teddy and is exactly what this offense needs.  He's very big (6'5 to be exact) and has very reliable hands.  He's the kind of player who moves chains while also posing a big-time threat in the redzone. 

I think that if you look at the production Chris Chambers and Marty Booker had in Miami the past 2 seasons, you'll see that it's not a very difficult task to fill their shoes.  And I think Ginn and Wilford will do a good job of that – likely producing more yardage than Chambers and Booker have done in '06 and '07.  But will that even be enough to help the Dolphins?  I have no clue right now.

Ernest Wilford seems like the guy to watch.  He's a tall veteran with some skills.  In addition to what Matty says are his attributes, I might add "Seam".  He's roughly the same size as Moss, our premier seam WR, but I'll defer to Matty on this one; he knows him best.  Look for some interesting stuff to come from this receiver corp.

Props to Matty I for his most excellent info.  Be sure to visit The Phinsider, SBNation's very cool Miami Dolphins blog, for my answers as well as lots of great info on the Dolphins.

In today's first installment of Around the AFC East, I chat with BrianG from the awesome Buffalo Bills blog, Buffalo Rumblings.  The topic of today is what's up with Marshawn Lynch and his alleged hit-and-run?

The Marshawn Lynch alleged hit-and-run incident seems to be turning into a black hole of sorts, sucking up everything in its path.  What do you see the impact to the Bills come pre-season game time?  How about the regular season?

Buffalo Rumblings: The first thing to point out with regards to this incident is that it's turned into a "black hole", as you accurately summed it, because of the actions of Frank Clark, the Erie County DA.  It's fairly ridiculous that a misdemeanor crime has gone to a grand jury - Bills executives, including COO Russ Brandon, will testify today (Friday), while three more players have been subpoenaed and could be forced to appear in court prior to the start of training camp (July 25).  I'm not making excuses for Lynch - allegedly, he did a pretty terrible thing - but it's important to keep things in perspective.  His punishment won't include jail time, and it's highly unlikely he'll be suspended, either.

Therefore, I don't see it having much impact a month or two from now.  It will be fairly difficult for Roger Goodell to suspend a player for exercising his Constitutional right to plead the fifth and isn't going to jail.  Lynch may face team repercussions, such as sitting out a quarter at the start of the season, but his punishment will likely be through a plea deal and involve community service.  This has been overblown by a DA looking to make waves.  Other than the initial incident, Lynch hasn't done anything wrong.  He'll get his plea deal, serve his punishment, and barring injury, he'll play the vast majority of the 2008 season.

It's hard for me to disagree with Brian on this one.  We as Patriots fans know all too well how the Media and football outsiders (can you say Sen. Specky?) can blow things WAY out of proportion.  I can sense Brian is angry at the DA mentioned above.  I wouldn't be surprised if the dude's doing it to promote his own career.  You know, grab onto a high profile case and push it as hard as possible.  At any rate, I hope this gets cleared up and the Bills can get back to preparations for the 2008 season.  Marshawn Lynch is a huge part of that.

Thanks to Brian over at Buffalo Rumblings for his excellent answer on the subject.  Head on over to his blog for my answer to his question about your New England Patriots.

via tbn0.google.com

I must admit, I have a soft spot for Ty Law.  When he left New England for the Jets, many saw this move as a way for the Jets to capitalize on his knowledge of the NE defensive strategies and he took a bad rap, unwarranted in my opinion.  My belief is Law simply capitalized on the Patriots' 3 Super Bowl wins an got himself a big, fat check in the process.  No harm, no foul.  Why should we be mad at him for going after some cash?  Players do it all the time and the fact that he went to a division rival means little to me.

The Jets cut him loose after one year because of a huge hit in their salary cap and Ty spent the last 2 years with the Chiefs.  Law's 2006 performance was in line with his previous years, but 2007 proved to be a less than stellar year for the former Patriot CB.

From a Patriots fan perspective, I'd love to see Ty back in the blue and silver.  He did a lot for this franchise and I'm somewhat loyal to guys like him.  He left more than a few pounds of flesh on the field for us.  From a realistic standpoint, I don't see it happening.  Ty is 34 and in the twilight of his career.  He's also expensive.  His KC contract was 5 year $30m and I don't see Pioli picking that up.  The Patriots have also become very deep at CB; with 8 players at that position, that's another strike against a Ty Law return.

Your thoughts?