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Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning: Who's the Best? - Part I

Brady vs. Manning
Who Is the Better QB and Why?

This argument is right up there with Frasier-Ali, Williams-DiMaggio, Bird-Johnson. The rivalry .. um, rivals .. Red Sox-Yankees, Bruins-Canadians, Bears-Packers. The discussion has been called "irrational" by one of the premiere sites for statistical NFL analysis (FootballOutsiders.com, see Parts I, II, and III -- there's no "evidence," just a forum-style argument).

Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning: Who's better and why?

Well, in case you didn't notice: This is a New England Patriots blog. The answer is Brady. No question. Unfortunately, as hard to believe as it is, there are some misguided and misinformed heathens out there.

I don't know that we can change that, but here upon the Pulpit, I give you in back-and-while and red-white-and-blue is the gospel truth. In Part I of our testimony, we discuss The Stats.

The Stats
(Stats from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com)

REGULAR SEASON STATS PLAYOFF STATS
Brady Manning Brady Manning
Age 29y 11m 31y 3m**
seasons/games 7* / 96 9 / 144 Record 12-2 7-6
attempts 3,064 4,890 486 475
att./season 510.7 543.3
completions 1,896 3,131 295 290
comp./season 316.0 347.9
comp. % 61.9 64.0 60.7 61.1
yards 21,564 37,586 3217 3495
yds/season 3,594.0 4,176.2
yds/att 7.04 7.69 6.62 7.36
yds/comp 11.37 12.00 10.91 12.05
TD 147 275 20 18
TD/season 24.5 30.6
Att/TD 20.84 17.78 24.30 26.39
INT 78 139 9 15
INT/season 13.0 15.4
Att/INT 39.28 35.18 54.00 31.67
fumbles lost 25 16
sacks 182 170
sk/season 30.0 18.9
rating 88.4 94.4
rushes 239 269 38 18
yds/att 1.8 2.6 1.8 1.9
TD 3 13 2 3
1st downs 79 63
Table Notes:
* Brady played at the end of one game his first season. He's had 6 full seasons.
** I typo'd this earlier. Manning is 31, not 33.

Star-divide

During the regular season, Manning has a pretty decisive advantage in most areas. He throws a lot more passes, so he obviously has more yards and more touchdowns. He also has more interceptions.

If you look at the averages, we get a bit of a clearer picture. Manning averages 0.65 yards per attempt better than Brady, 0.63 yards per completion more, 6.1 touchdowns per season more. But quality of your own offensive personnel and the quality of the opponents' defensive personnel has a lot to do with that. Manning also has a 2.1 percent edge in completion percentage.

Let's look at a couple other numbers: Manning throws a touchdown every 17.78 passes; Brady, every 20.84. Pretty close. Probably a lot closer than most people would expect. Manning also throws an interception every 35.18 passes, and Brady does every 39.28 attempts. Brady has a decisive edge there.

Manning has fewer sacks per season and more rushing touchdowns, but that again is a function of the quality of your own offensive line and the opponents' defense and your general offensive scheme. But Brady has a good edge in first downs gained.

Overall, Manning has a clear edge, but Brady has the advantage in a few key areas.

Now look at the playoffs.

Recently, I read an argument that said Brady has been floundering since Charlie Weis took the head coaching job at Notre Dame and that Manning has been getting in the playoffs. After starting 0-3, Manning is 7-3 in has last 10 playoff starts. Of course, Brady is 8-2 in his last 10 (including two Super Bowl wins) and 12-2 overall. Brady has a monumental advantage in win-loss playoff records.

Manning's completion percentage advantage decreases from 2.1 percent to 0.4. Quite negligible. But his yards per attempt and completion increase from 0.65 and 0.63 to 0.74 and 1.14. Manning's numbers are both better than his regular season number. Brady's are not as good. Some people would call that surprising.

But to win playoff games and to win championships, yards aren't the key stat.

In one more game (14-13), Brady has two more touchdowns. As opposed to the regular season, Brady has the big edge, 24.30 to 26.39. That's a turnaround of almost 5 passes per touchdown better.

It doesn't end there either. Brady's thin attempts per interception in the regular season explodes in the postseason. Brady throws far few interceptions in the playoffs: just one every 54.00 attempts, compared to his 39.28 in the regular season. Manning falters. He drops from 35.18 to 31.67. Brady throws almost twice as many passes between interceptions than Manning does.

Brady also runs a lot more, which means when the biggest games are on the line, he takes matters into his own hands more often. Note that these performances are against the best teams in the league, not the Houstons and Oaklands of the world. Brady picks apart these elite defenses methodically and ruthlessly.

Playing well in (and that's an understatement) and winning the biggest games: That's what makes a champion.

In Part 2, we'll look at the some of the talent surrounding these two future hall of famers.

Poll
Which quarterback has the statistical edge?
Tom Brady
88 votes
Peyton Manning
204 votes

292 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments

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Comments

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I think what this shows
is that Peyton Manning is clearly the better quarterback. In the Regular Season, which has a sample size that is ~ 8 times as large, Manning clearly prevails, as you admit. The only category that Brady wins in is Int%, an advantage you deem "decisive". It's an ~ 11% improvement. If that's decisive, then so are a number of Peyton's accomplishments, notably YPA (~9%), TD/Season (~25%), and TD% (~17%, though you deem this one "pretty close" for reasons that escape me), among others. We also notice a Brady tendency to fumble the ball, despite having fewer rushing attempts.

Introducing Playoffs, with its statistically less meaningful sample size, sheds better light towards Brady, but certainly not in a convincing manner. They basically split the passing category, with Manning winning completion % and YPA, and Brady protecting the ball better. The only conclusion thus would be that Manning is the better passer when one considers nearly 8,000 pass attempts worth of data, and that playoffs alone are inconclusive at worst, at best ever-so-slightly favorable towards Brady. So do I take conclusive results of 8,000 attempts compared or the inconclusive ones of 950+ attempts more seriously? I think most would say the regular season over these years affords us the more meaningful sample size.

I don't fault a Patriots fan for concluding that Brady is the best QB, and he is an incredible quarterback, but the data strongly points towards Peyton Manning as the victor.

I am excited for the next installment, as a look at the personnel surrounding the two QBs is the most convincing (IMO) means of arguing Brady's superiority over Manning, though I admittedly am not even compelled by that. Yet.

by Skin Patrol on Jul 9, 2007 2:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thoughts
So a difference of 3.06 attempts/stat is pretty close (line 6), a difference of 4.1 attempts/stat is decisive edge (line 7) and then a difference of 2.09 attempts/stat  is a big edge (line 20), now I'm confused.

Also the conclusion that more rushing attempts means a QB is doing everything they can to win seems like a bit of a jump/stretch. I would say it means there were more plays where the QB couldn't find a open receiver or had designed run, but I would probably have just left that stat alone.

Finally, weak competition is used to try to explain away Manning's stats. Over their careers as starters Manning's division rivals have had a better record than Brady's. 8.13 wins/season to 7.45. (didn't forget that 1998-2001 had different division alignments). So Manning's regular season competition is not weaker than normal.

by shake n bake on Jul 9, 2007 3:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I can't help but chuckle....
Your regular season "cop out" for Manning is that he goes up against weaker defenses, yet that is half of why Brady has had more success in the playoffs.  Manning has had to try to get past the pats defense (in crappy NE weather no less), while Brady has been able to go up against the significantly weaker (until this year ;)) defense of the Colts.  You can't pick and choose when you want to use this argument.

And not enough is ever said about how your own defense effects your stats.  Your most compelling stat for Brady is the oh so significant difference in interception ratio.  Brady has always had a championship caliber defense to help him out.  He can afford to take less chances because he knows that if he throws the ball out of bounds on 3rd down, he has a pretty darn good chance of getting the ball back without anymore points on the board.  Manning, not so much.

The only legitimate argument you have is the number of super bowl victories and overall playoff record.  But those are TEAM stats...not individual stats.  Brady gets way too much credit for those super bowl wins because he's the pretty boy QB.  He's had such great defenses helping him out, resulting in shorter drives and more possessions.   Guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, and Ty Law should get more credit than they do.

Couple more quick notes...More offensive weapons is another crock...that versus having a better defense is a wash.  And better O-line is also BS.   They both have great offensive lines, Manning gets rid of the ball quicker than any QB in the league.

Nice try...but the stats just do not compare.  Give Manning a few more years, and I bet that the playoff record and super bowl rings will even itself out.  And then what will you have?  "My guy has knocked up more super models, so he's obviously better."  

by rudy0498 on Jul 9, 2007 4:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Holy Crap
You've been invaded by Colt Nation... only explanation for the 101 votes and Pay-ton winning the poll...

Um... and to Rudy0498... bitter much?? As for 'pretty boy' status. Peyton's the one who, during Football season is on every single frickin' ad, while Brady's ads have been subtle, and often including the rest of his team. I'd say that Peyton's the Pretty boy of the Colts just as much...

I read the previous two comments and was like, wow... There are Colts fans who don't totally annoy me, and then you came along rudy... bitterness will only cause you stress and shorten your life, it's only a game, and in the end, all that matters is who is standing with the crazy little football statue at the end of the year.

I give props to Manning (and the Refs, but I won't go there since I'm trying to be positive...) he did it last year. Three of the Previous four years it was Brady who was holding the statue up, he deserves more than simply your, not very funny jabs about his personal life. He hasn't been arrested, he hasn't done drugs, what he does with women, as long as he treats them well (i.e. no domestic crap) is his business not mine or anyones.

by DanieXJ on Jul 9, 2007 5:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Glad to annoy you...
Consider it payback for all the Boston sports fans who have annoyed the crap out of everyone else over the years.  Where do NE sports fans get off accusing anyone of being bitter?  How quickly you forget the 80+ years that the world heard the collective pissing and moaning out of the entire NE region because your beloved Red Sox couldn't get past the Yankees?  Your region defined the term bitter when it comes to sports.

But seriously, all jabs, puns, and bias aside.  Brady's is a great QB.  And I won't give him props and then immediately take them away like you did.  You can say he's more clutch, you can say he's better in playoffs, but don't even attempt to make any sort of statistical argument because any stats you try to use in his favor will be the result of blatently overlooking the obvious.

by rudy0498 on Jul 10, 2007 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

These stats don't take into account
the much better offensive personnel that Manning has always had. Since Brady has had a better defense it helps make up for the offensive shortcomings. The main reasons Manning has better stats are the much easier opponents and the infinately better playing conditions. Every year Manning twice plays the Texans and Titans--good for 12-15 Td's per year. All his home games are inside on turf where the offense has the advantage and many of his road games are also indoors or warm weather. Brady has played on the terrible field in Foxboro that gives the defense the advantage and in cold outdoor games at home and many on the road. Taking these facts into account and Brady has the better statistics and is the better QB.

by scsatr on Jul 9, 2007 7:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

HAHA!!!!
This is awesome:  "Taking these facts into account and Brady has the better statistics and is the better QB"

So, taking theses "facts" into consideration, what are the "adjusted" stats that say Brady is better than Manning?  Manning plays "many" of his road games indoors and in warm weather?  We play once a year in Reliant stadium.  

So based on your argument, Manning plays most of his games indoors where the offense has the advantage.  Meaning has to score more points than Brady does because Brady plays on a horrible field where his defense has an advantage.  

This whole argument is ridiculous.  You can't use stats to prove a point, and then give reasons why the stats aren't valid.

by ppr314 on Jul 9, 2007 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It seems to be an
obvious point but I guess you missed it. Any QB who plays inside and/or in warm weather should have better stats than a QB who plays in cold/bad conditions. Mannings slightly better stats in good conditions are devalued against Bradys comparable stats in worse conditions.

by scsatr on Jul 9, 2007 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

teams are designed to play in their stadiums
The patriots offense is designed to take advantage of the weather conditions they typically play in.  Their short controlled passing game is built to take advantage of the defenses lack of footing in bad weather.  The colts vertical passing game is based on speed and designed to excel indoors and hurts them in bad weather.

Stats are the only real tangible "Facts" there are to compare the two.  Everything else is just an opinion.  As much as I'd like to see an exercise where the two switch places and see who plays better in which situation.  Of course I believe that Manning would be better, and you believe Brady will be better.  But the bottom line is that will never happen.

And the whole offensive weapon crap can be put to the test this year.  We'll see how many more touchdowns he throws this year with Randy "me me me" Moss.  My guess is that it will once again pale in comparison to Manning.

by rudy0498 on Jul 10, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and.....
Brady plays in a division full of shitty offenses, and he has one of the best defenses and special teams units in league.  This means that 6 times a year they have more time of possession and better field position to work with.  Teams grind out the clock against the colts to limit the amount of time Peyton is on the field to accumulate his stats.  

So that should even the stats out, right?  Or do you have more excuses which you call facts?

by rudy0498 on Jul 10, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Please refrain from using vulgarity
Thank you.
Have something to say? Create a free account and step up to the Pulpit! (Please: No vulgarity. Thanks.)

by tommasse on Jul 10, 2007 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SB Nation's Colts blog returns fire
Apparently, I struck a nerve at Stampede Blue, Sports Blogs Nation's Indianapolis Colts blog. Here's the counter-diatribe. One big complaint is that I used "averages" instead of straight numbers. To that I say, "Of course Manning has more yards and touchdowns. He's played three full seasons more." Pretty obvious.

Hence, averages. Last I took a statistics class, which admittedly was a long time ago, averages are pretty key calculations in comparing statistics, and other calculations, like standard deviations, are derivative of averages.

There is also apparently a problem with dividing my argument into multiple parts instead of one ridiculously unwieldy post. I thought it would be easy to hold community discussions about the various facets of the discussion, but my approach has been deemed unacceptable.

Anyway, it's there to read if you're interested.

Have something to say? Create a free account and step up to the Pulpit! (Please: No vulgarity. Thanks.)

by tommasse on Jul 9, 2007 9:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea of breaking it up
into multiple posts. These arguments are typically nuanced enough without having to cluster everything together. Better to separate the points so that they can be discussed in an isolated manner without having to make multiple concurrant arguments at a time.

I also don't think there's anything wrong with using averages as a part of a statistical analysis, though even that edges for Peyton. Also, total production (longevity as well) shouldn't be ignored all together. Peyton has more passes, which means his numbers are better. But it also means he's capable of handling a bigger work load than Tom Brady has proven able. We can't say with certainty that Tom Brady continues with the same level of success once he reaches 5,000 attempts -- we know that Manning can do so.

by Skin Patrol on Jul 10, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other stat breakdowns
The site you used for stats, pro-football-reference.com has said Manning is the better QB and the 4th best in NFL history by his stats so far. Brady is ranked 26th. He uses adjusted yards per attempt, passing yards+(TD*10)-(INT*45), to find how much better a QB was than the NFL QB average in a season, then multiplies it by attempts. By adding these season totals you get a number representing how many yards more than a average QB playing at the same time would have gained over his career.
Counting TDs as 10 yards and INTs as -45 would
help Brady who throws less INTs and TDs than Manning. Manning still blows Brady out of the water 5985 to 1837 or 665 per season to 306.

Football Outsiders and Wages of Wins also both have great stat breakdowns that put Manning clearly ahead of Brady.

If you were arguing Brady's stats are much closer to Manning's than many people think you made a very good case but I'm not seeing enough advantages for Brady to say he's better.

by shake n bake on Jul 9, 2007 11:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

On a Pats blog...
There is clearly intended to be no actual debate. How could you possibly be convinced that Manning is a better QB than Brady?

However, Manning throws a more accurate long ball, makes his running backs better by his mere existence, takes FAR fewer sacks (look at sacks per dropback), and all of the defenses in the AFC measure themselves by how well they play the Colts. His receivers are awesome because of him (they stay on the team because of him, they practice in April with him, they can change routes with a hand wave because of him, he listens to their feedback on coverages and changes plays at the line for the coverage they see).

It's bold to take the angle that Brady is better because of stats, and I admire the effort, although you have to cherry pick a couple of specific stats to arrive at that conclusion. However, if you look at the games you can see where Manning changes the entire character of the game, while Brady is merely a good quarterback who manages the ball very well. You won't find most of the differences in your statistics book.

Brady gets a lot of second chances because of his great defense, and he does not have to do the big comeback. He played the game of his life in his second Super Bowl, but in the others he was merely average. If you need Brady to rescue you at the end, it's a toss-up, and if you need a miracle beyond a field goal, he's human. Look at the two desperation drives that the Pats needed against the Chargers and Colts. They were OK when they needed only a field goal.

Look at the Jets-Colts last season. Manning ran a 12-play 5:21 drive and a 9-play 1:30 drive for touchdowns in the 4th quarter WITHOUT USING A SINGLE TIMEOUT. No one else can even consider that, but it's not unusual for the Colts, and the reason they can do that is Manning. Look at the 13-play 7:16 drive against an inspired Ravens defense that ended the game. Those runs were working because they know Manning can switch at the line to Dallas Clark for 14 yards if the Ravens blink at the line. Manning beat the #1, #2, and #3 defenses in the post-season last year.

Would I take Brady on my team? Heck yes, assuming that Manning, Palmer, Bulger, and Brees were not available. McNabb would make that list as well, except that he's injury prone. So maybe Palmer and Brees are suspect too. Don't feel bad - he's an integral part of a team having an outstanding run of success, and he's the 5th-best QB playing the game today. He's worth every penny they pay him and more.

I'm glad the Pats have given Brady all his weapons so hopefully maybe you guys will stop yapping about that. He will get a QB rating between 88-92 next season, just like he always does. And that's outstanding - it's just not Manning.

by SteveW on Jul 10, 2007 9:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bulger??
That invalidates anything else you say.

by scsatr on Jul 10, 2007 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention...
..."There is clearly intended to be no actual debate."

We're expected to believe a Colts fan is any more objective than we are? Please!

They can have Manning, we have Brady, and we'll see who's still playing in February.

by RSNexile on Jul 10, 2007 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, right...
Look at the "stats" and the "supporting cast" which seem to be what you guys think makes Brady better than Manning.

Bulger is clearly a better QB than Brady, and the Pats should snap him up if they get the chance.

by SteveW on Jul 10, 2007 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bulger...c'mon...
(Colts fan speaking here). Bulger is not in the same class.  With the talent and system he has around him he should put up much bigger numbers than he does.  Palmer is too young to be in the conversation.  McNabb is injury prone, wildly inconsistent, and the Eagles have shown that multiple other guys (Garcia, Feely, etc.) run have success on that team.  Brees is a tough call.  He carried an otherwise mediocre team to the NFC championship last season one year removed from major shoulder surgery.  With a bunch of no name receivers, and his leading receiver was a running back, and he still led the league in passing yards. While I love my fellow Boilermaker, but he needs to sustain that for much longer to be included in this conversation.

Also, I have to point out that the one impartial person in this conversation, Hogs Heaven (Redskins fan) is saying that Manning is better :P

by rudy0498 on Jul 11, 2007 9:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Impartial... ha....
And all those Mets fans who contribute in a Yankee/Red Sox discussion are impartial too huh??

Puleeze...

Everyone (non-Colt Fans) love Peyton Darling because it's darn easy (though, I don't see it, I just can't get out of my head the finagaling that Archie did because he just couldn't stand his son getting picked by the 'lowly' Chargers. How'd that work out for Eli????).

Y'all may think that all Pats fans are fair weather ones, but I suffered through my entire life as a Pats fan and a Red Sox fan, and the Pats back in the day could pull defeat very nicely from the jaws of victory (Thank you Bledsoe gag), just as much as the Red Sox did.

I have to say, being a die hard Pats fan these days does make me feel a little sympathy for the die hard Yanks fans (not the bandwagoners who are now falling off like flies, but the crazy ones who are still saying that the Yanks'll make it to the World Series... :)) To have all these other teams fans just hate you and assume that you're a fan only because the team wins. Ouch...

Oh, and as for the Refs... I wasn't insulting Manning, I was insulting the idiot refs, who made some bad calls that went for the Pats as well. They need to fire all of them, or retrain all of them or something, at least teach them that they're there to Ref the game, not frickin' decide the game.

by DanieXJ on Jul 12, 2007 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man, I thought this comment thread was dead
Hey, DanieXJ, had enough beating the Part II dead horse, so you came back for more here, huh?

Good luck on your wish for the officials. It's going to get worse, if you believe what I wrote about the 2007 rules changes.

I really have to hand it to some of the Colts fans. Patriots-Colts has turned into Yankees-Red Sox, if only from the perspective of a competitive rivalry. Colts fans are passionate if nothing else. (And, no, there's nothing to read into that qualification. .. Is there?)

Have something to say? Create a free account and step up to the Pulpit! (Please: No vulgarity. Thanks.)

by tommasse on Jul 12, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the record
I really hate Peyton Manning.

by Skin Patrol on Jul 12, 2007 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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