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Hey everyone! So last season, I created power rankings that involved only numbers. A team gets points if they win, they subtract points if they lose. If they beat a playoff team they get bonus points, if they lose to a lottery team they subtract bonus (not bonus?) points. Using those basic numbers, before the Week 17 rest of players, the top two teams in my rankings played each other in the Super Bowl. Three out of the four top teams in the rankings made the championship game, with the 3rd and 5th ranked teams losing to the Jets due to missed field goals. The rankings worked pretty well.
This yea, I've decided to wait to release these rankings until a quarterway through the season. Last season was last season and teams have changed- the good teams are finally showing their true colors. Up until now, I've used numbers based on last season for the "good win"/"bad win" numbers. If a team beat a last year's playoff team, that counts as a good win. If a team loses to a team that had a top 10 draft pick, that's a bad loss.
This year, I'm adding one new factor, just to see how it works. It's "Big Win"/"Bad Loss". If a team beats another team, regardless of rank, by two or more touchdowns, that's a good win. On the other hand, if a team loses by two or more touchdowns, that's a bad loss.
Here's an example of the Patriots' season so far:
Week 1: Beat the Bengals 38-24 - Playoff Team + Blowout = Double Bonus
Week 2: Loss to the Jets 28-14 - Playoff Team - Blown out = Minus Bonus
Week 3: Beat the Bills 38-30 - No Bonus
Week 4: Beat the Dolphins 41-14 - Blowout = Single Bonus
Net Bonus: +2 Bonus
From now on, a "Good Win" is against a team in the top 12 of the rankings. A "Bad Loss" is against a team in the bottom 10 of the rankings.
Since it is still early in the season, these numbers will seem sort of extreme. These calculated rankings don't really work until halfway through the season when teams have had enough time to regress towards whatever their true talent is. Due to this factor, I'll continue my opinion based power rankings as well.
Read the Rankings after the Jump!
Calculated Power Rankings: Teams will get split up according to their point total. A team with a score over 125 is considered a Super Bowl contender. A team with a score over 100 is considered a playoff contender. A team with a score over 75 is considered a competitive team. A team with a score over 50 is considered mediocre. A team with a score over 25 is considered a bad team. A team with a score over 0 is considered a terrible team. A team with a score under 0 is a team that is competing for the #1 draft pick.
Calculated Rankings
|
Rank |
Team |
QA Score |
|
1 |
120.00 |
|
|
2 |
116.25 |
|
|
3 |
113.25 |
|
|
4 |
108.75 |
|
|
5 |
103.25 |
|
|
6 |
94.00 |
|
|
7 |
90.25 |
|
|
8 |
86.75 |
|
|
9 |
86.50 |
|
|
10 |
81.50 |
|
|
11 |
80.50 |
|
|
12 |
77.50 |
|
|
13 |
71.25 |
|
|
14 |
66.25 |
|
|
15 |
63.50 |
|
|
16 |
59.50 |
|
|
17 |
59.00 |
|
|
18 |
58.70 |
|
|
19 |
55.50 |
|
|
20 |
53.50 |
|
|
21 |
51.00 |
|
|
22 |
50.25 |
|
|
23 |
45.00 |
|
|
24 |
44.97 |
|
|
25 |
38.63 |
|
|
26 |
32.75 |
|
|
27 |
25.00 |
|
|
28 |
17.25 |
|
|
29 |
(11.00) |
|
|
30 |
(15.25) |
|
|
31 |
(21.00) |
|
|
32 |
(22.75) |
Here are some highlights from these rankings:
~Chiefs are ranked highly because they're undefeated.
~Ravens are ranked lowly due to their loss to the Bengals and close wins (1 point over the Jets, 7 points over the Browns, 3 points over the Steelers). Yes, they're great teams, but since the Steelers weren't a playoff team last year, the Ravens only get bonus points for beating the Jets.
Remember that these teams are grouped according to their numbers. That means every team in the range of 100-125 is comparable, and so is every team from 75-100. The Bears are ranked higher than the Saints, but they're in the same tier, which means that they're of comparable strength.
Those are the numbers. Here's my opinion rankings
My Rankings
"Who's the #1 Draft Prospect?" Tier
32. Buffalo Bills - Sorry, had to drop them back down after getting taken to school by the Jets.
31. Carolina Panthers - The Panthers are getting desperate for Jimmy Clausen needs to emerge quickly.
30. Detroit Lions - They're competitive, but they're not close to winning.
29. Cleveland Browns - They pulled out a win over the Bengals! I think it says more about the Bengals than the Browns, but at least 0-16 is out of the question
28. San Francisco 49ers - It seems like they're just one play away from winning every game. KNEEL THE BALL DOWN!
27. Oakland Raiders - Bruce Gradkowski can run the offense, but the defense is horrendous.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Easily the worst 2-2 team in the league. They beat the Rams to open the season and beat the Raiders by 1 point. They don't have a quarterback and they don't have a defense.
"I'll Take Any Kind of Progress!" Tier
25. Seattle Seahawks - Is this the team that can beat the Chargers, or the one that gets dominated by the Rams?
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - They've regressed back to their mean. They'll be an okay team, but they're young and have plenty of time to shine in the future.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars - They beat the Colts by starting each scoring drive with fantastic field position. Their defense is nonexistent and their offense is suspect.
22. Minnesota Vikings - How much of an impact will Randy Moss have on their offense?
21. Philadelphia Eagles - Losing Michael Vick will have a big impact on their offense. A mobile quarterback is a necessity behind the horrid offensive line.
20. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford is developing before our eyes. He has definitely lived up to his #1 overall draft pick by producing without much talent around him.
19. Dallas Cowboys - This team needs a win this week to get back on track. They're playing the Titans. Good luck.
"Mediocre Middle" Tier
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Another question mark of a team that needs to stop turning the ball over if they want to compete.
17. New York Giants - They spanked around Jay Cutler for an entire half, but they're wildly inconsistent on both sides of the ball.
16. Washington Redskins - How happy was Donovan McNabb to walk away with a win against the Eagles?
15. Tennessee Titans - Stop Chris Johnson and the Titans will lose. Not good in a conference with defenses like the Jets and Ravens who specialize at stopping any and all runs.
14. Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton is emerging as a quality starting quarterback and is turning players into playmakers. They just need their defense to show up to some games.
13. Miami Dolphins- They never showed up on Monday Night Football, but they're still a threat to regroup and make a push to the playoffs.
"Missing a Piece or Two." Tier
12. Chicago Bears - Definitely missing an offensive line. No team will do well if their quarterback gets sacked NINE times in a HALF.
11. San Diego Chargers - Okay, they spanked the Cardinals. What is this team's identity and how are they going to succeed as the season progressed? They missed Marcus McNeil and are missing Vincent Jackson.
10. Indianapolis Colts - Yeah, they don't have a secondary. They don't have an offensive line. They still have Peyton Manning and are still dangerous.
9. Houston Texans - A loss to the Cowboys and a squeaker against the Raiders. They need to re-find their mojo.
8. Kansas City Chiefs - Yes, they're undefeated. If they win this week, they're a playoff contender. They're a great young team with a lot of talent and heart, but they need Matt Cassel to start performing at a higher level.
"Playoff Competitor" Tier
7. New Orleans Saints - They beat a winless team by 2 points.
6. Green Bay Packers - They beat a winless team by 2 points.
5. Atlanta Falcons - They beat a winless team by 2 points.
4. New England Patriots - They beat a solid team by a lot of points. They still need consistency from their defense, but they HAVE put together 6 consecutive quarters of great defensive football. They're really only above the 5th, 6th and 7th ranked teams due to their poor performance against terrible teams.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Barely lost to a great team and they did it with their 3rd quarterback. This team will only get better. It doesn't matter the score because the Steelers will be in the game until the end.
"Cream of the League" Tier
2. Baltimore Ravens - Yeah, they had an unfortunate loss to the Bengals. They beat a fantastic Steelers team and I really wouldn't have a problem ranking them #1.
1. New York Jets - Except that I still think the Jets are that good. They've been on a three week rampage and are just starting to get their #2 Wide Receiver, #1 OLB and #1 CB back. They're a great team.
Keep in mind that teams are in their tiers for a reason. There's a base ranking for "rankings sake", but I believe that any team in a tier can beat another team in the same tier on any given Sunday.
Thanks for reading!