The Patriots defense had issues last season and it stemmed from three main positions: #2 Cornerback, Right Defensive End and Outside Linebacker. It appears the Patriots are fairly content to enter this upcoming season with very little tweaking of the outside linebacker core and the off-season was highlighted with some quiet defensive line veteran pick-ups. But what about the secondary? The Secondary was torched by some of the league's best quarterbacks and, as a result, the Patriots utilized a first round draft pick on Rutgers' CB Devin McCourty.
However, for all "research purposes", let's ignore the draft. McCourty, for all the hype surrounding him (and that I fully support and believe in), hasn't played a down in the NFL. It's hard to grade him as a professional player without seeing how he matches up against the world's greatest.
Let's just look at the players who played last season. Which players deserve to be starters? Which players should ride the pine? Which players should even be on the roster?
More after the jump!
The secondary is comprised of two main groups: the cornerbacks and the safeties. Let's break them down into two groups to determine which players should see the field.
Cornerbacks
To see how our players stacked up to the rest of NFL, I used a small sample of players from around the league to see how the Patriots' players matched up. I owe a lot of thanks to Pro Football Focus for their extensive data research. The players I compared were PFF's top 3 positional players, players from the AFC East, players from the Indianapolis Colts and a few other big name players. Here's the data compiled with PFF information:
|
Name |
TA |
Rec |
% CT |
PD |
% PD |
INT |
% INT |
TD |
% TD |
MT |
% MT |
|
Charles Woodson |
76 |
39 |
0.51 |
8 |
0.11 |
9 |
0.12 |
5 |
0.07 |
8 |
0.21 |
|
Darrelle Revis |
111 |
41 |
0.37 |
23 |
0.21 |
6 |
0.05 |
2 |
0.02 |
5 |
0.12 |
|
Leon Hall |
97 |
48 |
0.49 |
15 |
0.15 |
6 |
0.06 |
3 |
0.03 |
2 |
0.04 |
|
Leigh Bodden |
90 |
45 |
0.50 |
12 |
0.13 |
5 |
0.06 |
4 |
0.04 |
6 |
0.13 |
|
Nnamdi Asomugha |
28 |
21 |
0.75 |
2 |
0.07 |
1 |
0.04 |
1 |
0.04 |
8 |
0.38 |
|
Vontae Davis |
76 |
48 |
0.63 |
8 |
0.11 |
4 |
0.05 |
6 |
0.08 |
6 |
0.13 |
|
Sean Smith |
67 |
38 |
0.57 |
10 |
0.15 |
0 |
0.00 |
4 |
0.06 |
8 |
0.21 |
|
|
50 |
33 |
0.66 |
4 |
0.08 |
1 |
0.02 |
2 |
0.04 |
3 |
0.09 |
|
|
67 |
45 |
0.67 |
6 |
0.09 |
9 |
0.13 |
5 |
0.07 |
19 |
0.42 |
|
Antonio Cromartie |
79 |
45 |
0.57 |
6 |
0.08 |
3 |
0.04 |
2 |
0.03 |
6 |
0.13 |
|
Jarraud Powers |
77 |
46 |
0.60 |
6 |
0.08 |
1 |
0.01 |
1 |
0.01 |
6 |
0.13 |
|
Darius Butler |
64 |
36 |
0.56 |
3 |
0.05 |
3 |
0.05 |
2 |
0.03 |
3 |
0.08 |
|
Jacob Lacey |
93 |
56 |
0.60 |
6 |
0.06 |
3 |
0.03 |
2 |
0.02 |
8 |
0.14 |
|
Jonathan Wilhite |
67 |
44 |
0.66 |
0 |
0.00 |
2 |
0.03 |
6 |
0.09 |
4 |
0.09 |
|
Dunta Robinson |
82 |
54 |
0.66 |
7 |
0.09 |
0 |
0.00 |
3 |
0.04 |
10 |
0.19 |
|
Average |
74.93 |
42.60 |
0.59 |
7.73 |
0.10 |
3.53 |
0.05 |
3.20 |
0.04 |
6.80 |
0.17 |
Now a few things with my scoring of players:
- I know some players had a lot more playing time than others. I weighted scores according to how much playing time a player had. (ie: the more a player was on the field, the more "impressive" I consider their high level of play and they will get more credit than a player who didn't see the field as much)
- I know missed tackles aren't always the fault of the player- it's no reflection on how well they covered their man. Therefore, missed tackles held less weight when making final calculations.
Final Rankings
| Rank | Centered | Name |
| 1 | 1.17 | Darrelle Revis |
| 2 | 0.86 | Leon Hall |
| 3 | 0.49 | Leigh Bodden |
| 4 | 0.46 | Charles Woodson |
| 5 | 0.21 | Antonio Cromartie |
| 6 | 0.09 | Sean Smith |
| 7 | 0.03 | Jacob Lacey |
| 8 | 0.02 | Jarraud Powers |
| 9 | -0.11 | Dunta Robinson |
| 10 | -0.18 | Vontae Davis |
| 11 | -0.32 | Darius Butler |
| 12 | -0.38 | Asante Samuel |
| 13 | -0.66 | Nnamdi Asomugha |
| 14 | -0.73 | Shawn Springs |
| 15 | -0.97 | Jonathan Wilhite |
These rankings are a reflection on how well a cornerback covers- it is not a reflection on how good of an all-around player they are. A player like Woodson is more than just a cover corner because he rushes the QB, stops the running back and is everywhere on the field; however, he isn't as great of a cover corner as Revis. Also, a player like Asomugha is completely avoided by opposing QBs (only 28 challenges), but he let up 75% of the passes his direction- not very impressive in my opinion. I've always thought that Asomugha was overrated and benefited by having terrible corners on the other side of the defense and while the numbers are in no way "proof" that Asomugha is overrated, I'll definitely still use them as proof to say: Asomugha is overrated.
As for the Patriots, Bodden represents a solid corner who should keep the "bend, don't break" defensive goal alive and well. After Bodden, however, there is very little to look at. All Patriots secondary members were hurt in the final scoring due to lack of playing time, but Butler was the top remaining player. With Springs and Wilhite filling the bottom two spots overall, Butler really gets the #2 spot by default. Looking at the scores, I can see why Springs was released- he was barely better than the younger Wilhite. No point in keeping him around if he doesn't bring much to the table.
Wilhite, on the other hand, was given opportunities and never ran with them. He gave up the most touchdowns out of the corners in this study and, with his time on the field, gave up the greatest percentage of touchdowns/pass in his direction. He needs to prove himself this off-season if he wants to play on the defense. He's lucky there's a ghost in Terrence Wheatley, or else Wilhite would be my pick for training camp cut. In this study, Wilhite is the #3 corner for the Patriots- and that's not including 1st round pick McCourty.
I think our cornerback stable has much better depth this upcoming year than this past year. Hopefully, everyone improves and our cornerbacks become a strength.
Safeties
|
Name |
TA |
Rec |
% CT |
PD |
% PD |
INT |
% INT |
TD |
% TD |
MT |
% MT |
|
Ed Reed |
18 |
13 |
0.72 |
2 |
0.11 |
3 |
0.17 |
1 |
0.06 |
5 |
0.38 |
|
Kerry Rhodes |
36 |
24 |
0.67 |
5 |
0.14 |
3 |
0.08 |
0 |
0.00 |
5 |
0.21 |
|
Nick Collins |
29 |
13 |
0.45 |
7 |
0.24 |
6 |
0.21 |
3 |
0.10 |
4 |
0.31 |
|
Brodney Pool |
22 |
10 |
0.45 |
6 |
0.27 |
4 |
0.18 |
2 |
0.09 |
2 |
0.20 |
|
Brandon Meriweather |
30 |
18 |
0.60 |
6 |
0.20 |
5 |
0.17 |
1 |
0.03 |
10 |
0.56 |
|
Adrian Wilson |
52 |
28 |
0.54 |
4 |
0.08 |
5 |
0.10 |
3 |
0.06 |
1 |
0.04 |
|
Darren Sharper |
37 |
13 |
0.35 |
3 |
0.08 |
9 |
0.24 |
2 |
0.05 |
10 |
0.77 |
|
Gibril Wilson |
31 |
18 |
0.58 |
6 |
0.19 |
0 |
0.00 |
1 |
0.03 |
9 |
0.50 |
|
Pat Chung |
8 |
3 |
0.38 |
0 |
0.00 |
1 |
0.13 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
|
Louis Delmas |
35 |
22 |
0.63 |
1 |
0.03 |
2 |
0.06 |
5 |
0.14 |
13 |
0.59 |
|
James Sanders |
20 |
14 |
0.70 |
2 |
0.10 |
0 |
0.00 |
1 |
0.05 |
1 |
0.07 |
|
Jairus Byrd |
18 |
6 |
0.33 |
1 |
0.06 |
9 |
0.50 |
1 |
0.06 |
4 |
0.67 |
|
Antoine Bethea |
26 |
13 |
0.50 |
1 |
0.04 |
4 |
0.15 |
1 |
0.04 |
10 |
0.77 |
|
Brandon McGowan |
35 |
24 |
0.69 |
4 |
0.11 |
0 |
0.00 |
2 |
0.06 |
6 |
0.25 |
|
Melvin Bullitt |
30 |
25 |
0.83 |
1 |
0.03 |
0 |
0.00 |
2 |
0.07 |
10 |
0.40 |
|
Average |
28.47 |
16.27 |
0.56 |
3.27 |
0.11 |
3.40 |
0.13 |
1.67 |
0.06 |
6.00 |
0.38 |
Final Rankings
|
Rank |
Centered |
Name |
|
1 |
0.95 |
Jairus Byrd |
|
2 |
0.91 |
Brodney Pool |
|
3 |
0.75 |
Nick Collins |
|
4 |
0.40 |
Adrian Wilson |
|
5 |
0.34 |
Darren Sharper |
|
6 |
0.30 |
Pat Chung |
|
7 |
0.16 |
Brandon Meriweather |
|
8 |
0.11 |
Kerry Rhodes |
|
9 |
-0.09 |
Gibril Wilson |
|
10 |
-0.10 |
Antoine Bethea |
|
11 |
-0.30 |
Ed Reed |
|
12 |
-0.53 |
Brandon McGowan |
|
13 |
-0.71 |
Louis Delmas |
|
14 |
-0.99 |
Melvin Bullitt |
|
15 |
-1.18 |
James Sanders |
This is a gross generalization of safeties, regardless of their actual position (strong vs free) and they're rated in a manner extremely similar to that of the corners. I'm looking at how effective these players are in the defensive backfield and I'm not looking at how they play the line. Ed Reed is hurt in these rankings because he missed playing time and because he wasn't as lockdown this year when he was being targeted by opposing quarterbacks.
Meriweather comes in at "just above average" mainly because he was such a bad tackler. He knows of his flaw and has spent this off-season working on his tackling. If he cleaned up his tackling to "average", he'd be right up with Wilson and Sharper. If he makes his tackling "above average", he'd be a top 5 lock.
Sophomore Pat Chung actually came in with a better score than Meriweather, despite having limited snaps. He made the most of his opportunities and should be seeing more playing time next season.
Free Agent Pick-up Brandon McGowan was a solid player, but his lack of interceptions hurt his score. He's a good player for a "bend, don't break" defense, but he's not going to be creating many opportunities for turnovers.
Veteran James Sanders is at the bottom of this list. Sanders was one of the worst pass-defense safeties when quarterbacks targeted him, with his 70% completion rate. He struggled to find the ball, with no interceptions and only a couple passes defended. His strength comes in his tackling (where Meriweather struggled) and he, like McGowan, should play key roles as support players on our defense.
Verdict
My projected depth chart for our secondary:
Right Cornerback: 1) Leigh Bodden, 2) Devin McCourty
Left Cornerback: 1) Darius Butler, 2) Jonathan Wilhite
Free Safety: 1) Brandon Meriweather, 2) James Sanders
Strong Safety: 1) Pat Chung, 2) Brandon McGowan
Thoughts? Disagreements? What do you think?