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Sorry for the delay- this article is coming out a bit late because the statistics I assembled took me quite a bit of time to compile. At 1 a.m. this morning I had an unfinished article, a dayjob looming, and a decision to make. So a morning article became a night article (just for this week). Please stay with me even though this is long-winded, because I think the statistics I put together are really interesting.
Usually before I sit down on Wednesday night to write this column, I watch the prior weekend's Patriots game to remember anything fresh I may have missed or to analyze certain players performances more in-depth. This week, I decided to skip that.
To be honest, I'm not sure I could have subjected myself to that torture again.
I think that everyone here at Pats Pulpit has done a great job of breaking down New England's struggles against the Steelers, so I have decided to do a statistical breakdown of the last eight years worth of Patriots draft to see if I can spot any trends in how New England values different positions in the draft and then also what the value added has been per position and per round over the last eight years.
Before people go on a tirade about how this system is flawed, I'll go over a few things:
A. For the "perceived value," I created an arbitrary valuation system that I believe accurately shows how teams value certain rounds in the draft. I went with decreasing values for rounds 1-7 that add up to a total value of one. These values are respectively 0.4, 0.25, 0.15, 0.1, 0.06, 0.03, and 0.01, with 0.4 representing the perceived value of a first round pick and 0.01 being the perceived value of a seventh round pick.
B. In the second set of analysis, I decided to base what I felt a player's actual value was to the team in teams of two things, and two things only: games played of potential games (meaning games in which the player was actively employed by the team), and games started. Production is an entirely different thing, but it's hard to have any concrete comparison between different positions based on production. If we instead look at value as games played and especially games started, we can compare by round and by position how the Patriots draft according to need.
C. In the upcoming weeks I will have charted similar data for at least one other team to compare the Patriots. This particular set took me long enough that there was no way to get it accomplished in time to publish this.
First, lets examine draft picks from 2004-2011 (I figured 8 years would be an accurate snapshot).
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
2004 |
DL- Vince Wilfork |
DL- Marquise Hill |
S- Guss Scott |
S- Dexter Reid |
WR- P.K. Sam |
CB- Christian Morton |
|
TE- Ben Watson |
RB- Cedric Cobbs |
||||||
2005 |
OL- Logan Mankins |
- |
CB- Ellis Hobbs |
S- James Sanders |
LB- Ryan Claridge |
QB- Matt Cassel |
|
OL- Nick Kazcur |
TE- Andy Stokes |
||||||
2006 |
RB- Laurence Maroney |
WR- Chad Jackson |
TE- Dave Thomas |
TE- Garrett Mills |
OL- Ryan O'Callaghan |
DL- Jeremy Mincey |
CB- Willie Andrews |
K- Stephen Gostowski |
OL- Dan Stevenson |
||||||
DL- Le Kevin Smith |
|||||||
2007 |
S- Brandon Meriweather |
DL- Kareem Brown |
OL- Clint Oldenburg |
LB- Justin Rogers |
LB- Oscar Lua |
||
CB- Mike Richardson |
OL- Mike Elgin |
||||||
RB- Justise Hairston |
|||||||
OL- Corey Hilliard |
|||||||
2008 |
LB- Jerod Mayo |
CB- Terrence Wheatley |
LB- Shawn Crable |
CB- Jonathan Wilhite |
WR- Matthew Slater |
LB- Bo Ruud |
|
QB- Kevin O'Connell |
|||||||
2009 |
- |
S- Pat Chung |
WR- Brandon Tate |
OL- Rich Ohrnberger |
OL- George Bussey |
LS- Jake Ingram |
WR- Julian Edelman |
DL- Ron Brace |
LB- Tyrone McKenzie |
DL- Myron Pryor |
DL- Darryl Richard |
||||
CB- Darius Butler |
|||||||
OL- Sebastian Vollmer |
|||||||
2010 |
CB- Devin McCourty |
TE- Rob Gronkowski |
WR- Taylor Price |
TE- Aaron Hernandez |
P- Zoltan Mesko |
C- Ted Larson |
OT- Thomas Welch |
OLB/DE- Jermaine Cunningham |
DL- Brandon Deaderick |
||||||
LB- Brandon Spikes |
DL- Kade Weston |
||||||
QB- Zac Robinson |
|||||||
2011 |
OT- Nate Solder |
DB- Ras-I Dowling |
RB- Stevan Ridley |
- |
OL- Marcus Cannon |
LB/DE Markell Carter |
DB- Malcolm Williams |
RB- Shane Vereen |
QB- Ryan Mallett |
TE- Lee Smith |
Here is the breakdown of position by round and how many total draft picks were used in the time period at each position:
By Position |
LB |
DL |
WR |
RB |
QB |
S |
OL |
K, P, LS |
DB |
TE |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
Total |
8 |
12 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
14 |
3 |
9 |
7 |
I take a few things from this initial count. First- the parity of the first round selection. The Patriots have used a first round pick on every position with the exception of WR, QB, and the combination of K,P, and LS in the last eight years, with a maximum of 2 picks used on the offensive line. I feel that this demonstrates a remarkable equality between positions in drafting strategy.
Now, lets take the notion of "perceived value" and multiply it with the position drafted by round:
Perceived Value |
LB |
DL |
WR |
RB |
QB |
S |
OL |
K, P, LS |
DB |
TE |
1 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0 |
0.4 |
0 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
0 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
2 |
0.25 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
3 |
0.3 |
0 |
0.3 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
4 |
0 |
0.1 |
0 |
0.1 |
0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
5 |
0.06 |
0 |
0.12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.24 |
0.06 |
0 |
0.06 |
6 |
0.06 |
0.12 |
0 |
0.03 |
0 |
0 |
0.09 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0 |
7 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0 |
0.02 |
0 |
0.02 |
0 |
0.02 |
0.01 |
Total |
1.08 |
1.4 |
0.68 |
0.93 |
0.17 |
1 |
1.65 |
0.19 |
1.45 |
1.07 |
Per Pick |
0.135 |
0.117 |
0.113 |
0.186 |
0.057 |
0.200 |
0.118 |
0.063 |
0.161 |
0.153 |
This distribution tells a story of how much the Patriots are willing to "spend" in terms of perceived value per position. The offensive line is obviously the area that stands out, but mostly because two first round picks were used on those players. The next highest valued draft positions are the defensive line and defensive backs, which is interesting considering how poorly these two positions have performed as of recent. Not surprisingly, quarterback, wide receiver, and the combination of K, P, and LS (long snapper) are the least valued draft positions, at least according to this chart. However, we must take into account that the former position has been occupied by Tom Brady for the last decade, so there was little need to utilize better draft picks for that position. Also, before 2007 Randy Moss and Wes Welker were traded for, so that is most likely why the drafted value for wide receiver is so low.
I then took the average per position to see what the standard value associated with a specific position would be. Safety and running back stand out as the highest average, indicating that the Patriots were more willing to use higher draft picks on those positions. Values of .2 and .186 would indicate that New England spends, on average, a pick between the 2nd and 3rd rounds on safeties and running backs. Values of .161 and .153 would indicate that the Patriots average a third round pick on cornerbacks and tight ends. The values for defensive lineman, wide receivers, and offensive lineman are all around .11, which would indicate that New England usually drafts these positions around round four, but occasionally higher. The value for quarterback is lowest, but the Patriots have also only selected 3 quarterbacks in the measured span of time, but average a fifth round pick on the position.
Moving on from perceived value, we next visit the added value of a player according to a simple formula. First, I gathered information on how long each pick was with the team. For this calculation, I'm ignoring any time spent on injured reserve or injured during the season. Although injury may not be the fault of the player, it definitely subtracts from the value a player has to the team, at least in terms of starts. So for this added value statistic, I'm using PG- potential games, GP- games played, and GS- games started. The calcuation is simple: (PG/GP) + (GS/GP)= value. Given this equation, the maximum value for any player is 2, which would imply that the player played and started in every possible game after they were drafted.
1 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
2 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
|
2004 |
DL- Vince Wilfork |
119 |
113 |
103 |
1.861 |
DL- Marquise Hill |
48 |
12 |
0 |
0.250 |
|
TE- Ben Watson |
96 |
87 |
63 |
1.630 |
|||||
2005 |
OL- Logan Mankins |
119 |
106 |
106 |
1.891 |
- |
||||
|
||||||||||
2006 |
RB- Laurence Maroney |
64 |
45 |
14 |
1.014 |
WR- Chad Jackson |
24 |
14 |
1 |
0.655 |
|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
2007 |
S- Brandon Meriweather |
64 |
64 |
40 |
1.625 |
|||||
|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
2008 |
LB- Jerod Mayo |
64 |
50 |
48 |
1.741 |
CB- Terrence Wheatley |
32 |
11 |
1 |
0.435 |
|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
2009 |
- |
S- Pat Chung |
39 |
36 |
20 |
1.479 |
||||
|
DL- Ron Brace |
39 |
22 |
7 |
0.882 |
|||||
|
CB- Darius Butler |
32 |
29 |
8 |
1.182 |
|||||
|
OL- Sebastian Vollmer |
39 |
32 |
25 |
1.602 |
|||||
2010 |
CB- Devin McCourty |
23 |
23 |
23 |
2.000 |
TE- Rob Gronkowski |
23 |
23 |
18 |
1.783 |
|
OLB/DE- Jermaine Cunningham |
23 |
20 |
11 |
1.420 |
|||||
|
LB- Brandon Spikes |
23 |
18 |
11 |
1.394 |
|||||
|
||||||||||
2011 |
OT- Nate Solder |
7 |
7 |
6 |
1.857 |
DB- Ras-I Dowling |
7 |
2 |
2 |
1.286 |
RB- Shane Vereen |
7 |
3 |
0 |
0.429 |
3 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
4 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
S- Guss Scott |
32 |
5 |
2 |
0.556 |
s- Dexter Reid |
16 |
13 |
2 |
0.966 |
RB- Cedric Cobbs |
16 |
3 |
0 |
0.188 |
|||||
CB- Ellis Hobbs |
64 |
63 |
49 |
1.762 |
S- James Sanders |
96 |
84 |
50 |
1.470 |
OL- Nick Kazcur |
90 |
70 |
64 |
1.692 |
|||||
TE- Dave Thomas |
48 |
32 |
13 |
1.073 |
TE- Garrett Mills |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
K- Stephen Gostowski |
87 |
79 |
79 |
1.908 |
|||||
DL- Kareem Brown |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
|||||
LB- Shawn Crable |
18 |
6 |
0 |
0.333 |
CB- Jonathan Wilhite |
48 |
39 |
13 |
1.146 |
QB- Kevin O'Connell |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0.125 |
|||||
WR- Brandon Tate |
32 |
18 |
11 |
1.174 |
OL- Rich Ohrnberger |
23 |
5 |
0 |
0.217 |
LB- Tyrone McKenzie |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
|||||
WR- Taylor Price |
23 |
3 |
0 |
0.130 |
TE- Aaron Hernandez |
23 |
19 |
12 |
1.458 |
RB- Stevan Ridley |
7 |
6 |
1 |
1.024 |
- |
||||
QB- Ryan Mallett |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
5 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
6 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
7 |
PG |
GP |
GS |
Value |
WR- P.K. Sam |
16 |
2 |
0 |
0.125 |
CB- Christian Morton |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||||
LB- Ryan Claridge |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
QB- Matt Cassel |
64 |
30 |
15 |
0.969 |
|||||
TE- Andy Stokes |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
||||||||||
OL- Ryan O'Callaghan |
32 |
26 |
7 |
1.082 |
DL- Jeremy Mincey |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
CB- Willie Andrews |
32 |
30 |
0 |
0.938 |
OL- Dan Stevenson |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||||||||
DL- Le Kevin Smith |
48 |
31 |
0 |
0.646 |
||||||||||
OL- Clint Oldenburg |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
LB- Justin Rogers |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
LB- Oscar Lua |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
CB- Mike Richardson |
16 |
10 |
0 |
0.625 |
OL- Mike Elgin |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
|||||
RB- Justise Hairston |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||||||||
OL- Corey Hilliard |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||||||||
WR- Matthew Slater |
55 |
50 |
0 |
0.909 |
LB- Bo Ruud |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||||
OL- George Bussey |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
LS- Jake Ingram |
24 |
24 |
24 |
2 |
WR- Julian Edelman |
39 |
30 |
10 |
1.103 |
DL- Myron Pryor |
39 |
24 |
2 |
0.699 |
DL- Darryl Richard |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
|||||
P- Zoltan Mesko |
23 |
23 |
23 |
2.000 |
C- Ted Larson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
OT- Thomas Welch |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
DL- Brandon Deaderick |
23 |
11 |
4 |
0.842 |
||||||||||
DL- Kade Weston |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
||||||||||
QB- Zac Robinson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
||||||||||
OL- Marcus Cannon |
7 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
LB/DE Markell Carter |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
DB- Malcolm Williams |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
TE- Lee Smith |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.000 |
From these values, we can then take total value per round and then assess average value per player:
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
Total |
13.620 |
12.794 |
7.870 |
7.353 |
4.116 |
3.970 |
3.851 |
avg |
1.702 |
1.066 |
0.715 |
0.817 |
0.457 |
0.331 |
0.296 |
The trend in total value is exactly what you would hope for; i.e., the Patriots are getting the maximum value out of their first round picks and that value decreases as the rounds progress. However, we have to see that Stephen Gostkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and James Sanders all push the average value of the fourth round higher than the third.
This statistic shows one major thing- the Patriots don't appear to be having major busts when it counts. They are getting great value (at least in terms of starts) from their first round picks, with the average per pick of 1.7 indicating that each player drafted in that round both plays and starts in almost every game while they're with the team. Instant and prolonged contribution is exactly what a team is looking for out of a first round pick.
Then, we go to total and average value per position:
LB |
DL |
WR |
RB |
QB |
S |
OL |
K, P, LS |
DB |
TE |
|
Total |
3.468 |
5.180 |
4.095 |
2.654 |
1.094 |
6.096 |
8.341 |
5.908 |
8.087 |
5.944 |
avg |
0.434 |
0.432 |
0.683 |
0.531 |
0.365 |
1.219 |
0.596 |
1.969 |
0.899 |
0.849 |
I take a few things from here (and for the few people that are still reading this, thank you kindly): We can really disregard the special positions category (K, P, LS) because they weren't actual starts, but I considered them so.
- Surprisingly, the defensive back position had the best average value and nearly the highest total value. This obviously isn't taking into account production, as I said, but instead shows that the cornerbacks that are getting drafted are playing a good percentage of the time.
- As offensive line was the highest "perceived value" in the draft, it has also become the most valuable position over the last eight years in terms of games played and started. The average is low, but this is mostly because lineman are drafted for depth in the later rounds, and the turnover in the position is relatively low.
- The third highest average value is for tight ends, which makes sense- Dave Thomas in his years here, Ben Watson, and recently Gronkowski and Hernandez.
- Though most people will gripe about Brandon Meriweather's production, the fact is that in terms of games played and started, the Patriots are very efficient with drafting safeties. This is evidenced by the fact that the average value is an insane 1.219, which means the Patriots drafted mostly only safeties that have an impact.
- Linebacker and defensive end are unsurprisingly our weakest positions during this time period (quarterback not included). As most people have cried for impact players in those positions for the years after New England's 3 Super Bowls, these numbers would definitely indicate that the Patriots are not getting very consistent starters with the linebackers and defensive linemen they draft. Obviously, this doesn't take into account free agent acquisitions or players traded for.
These are all the immediate impressions I take from this data. I'm sure I'll have a head slapping moment between this week and next, but I will obviously write about that in the future. As I said, I will definitely have a comparison team broken down in the future- I'm thinking the Colts or the Packers, but post in the comments if you want another team looked at.
A few more quick notes from the team:
- I'll be disappointed and revolted if the allegations regarding Julian Edelman's conduct are a reality, and he is found guilty. Though he's been unproductive as of recent, I've always been a fan of Julian and if these allegations are true, I hope that Robert Kraft takes action. I made my sentiments on Albert Haynesworth known before, but violence against women is absolutely unacceptable no matter one's occupation.
- A thought popped into my head today- I'm not sure the reason for Leigh Bodden being released, and I'm not certain we will ever know. Most have speculated that he was no happy in the "star" role. It definitely wasn't a financial transactions because New England will likely have to pay his remaining salary. Is it possible that the move had nothing to do with Bodden himself? Leigh was the Patriots' oldest secondary member by far, and definitely the highest paid. With Devin McCourty being named a captain, it's obvious that he represents what the Patriots are looking for in a leader. I've heard Patrick Chung discussed in the same hard working and studious manner as Devin. Is it possible that at his relatively high age, and level of financial security, that Bodden wasn't ready to study as hard or put in as much work? Not as a slight to Bodden, but he wasn't playing for his first non-rookie contact. Even if Leigh wasn't acting as a malcontent, maybe Belichick wanted his youthful secondary members to mold themselves in the vein of McCourty and Chung.
- We might get to see more of Taylor Price this weekend. Awesome!