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Make Your Pick: Patriots Over/Under in Wins for 2013

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Will the Patriots have more or less than 11.5 wins in 2013?

Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

The oddsmakers have set the over/under in wins for each NFL team for the 2013 season, and the Patriots come in at 11.5 wins. Will Brinson of CBS Sports recently made his own predictions for each team based on the lines. He took the under for the Patriots:

Betting against the Pats to not win 12 games isn't a particularly profitable enterprise. They've got a very nice opening schedule against (at BUF, vs. NYJ, vs. TB) and could likely start out 3-0. Looking over their schedule, I think I like 11 wins on the nose. If I was more confident about the health of Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez and more confident in a patchwork wide receiver corps featuring Danny Amendola replacing Wes Welker, I might lean over. But I'm not. Verdict: UNDER

While Patriots fans are used to seeing double digit victory seasons, they really shouldn’t be taken for granted. The 11.5 win mark is quite high, and Brinson seems fair in his judgement that 11 wins seems appropriate for this Patriots team.

The current state of the pass catchers on offense is certainly a cause for concern. The Patriots top four producers in that area from 2012 are either injured or no longer with the team. While I certainly expect the defense to make strides this year, with a back end that has had little turnover compared to prior years, the chemistry on offense could take some time to develop.

While I don’t see this Patriots team falling below the ten win mark, 11 wins seems like a pretty realistic expectation. That being said, the Patriots have done more with less talented rosters in recent years (see: 2010 and 2011), so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see them win 13 or more games. If I was forced to pick, I’d take the over, with a prediction of 12 wins.

Do you agree with Brinson’s prediction? Would you take the over or under on 11.5?