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The Patriots have Andrew Luck's Number and Other Fun Claims

The Patriots have beaten Andrew Luck twice in his career. What wild claims can we extrapolate from this?

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

There's nothing more fun than pushing a narrative leading up to game day, so let's help out. The topic du jour is that the Patriots absolutely and unquestionably own Andrew Luck's soul and first-born child.

Since joining the league back in 2012, the Patriots have beaten Andrew Luck and the Colts twice- once his rookie season and once during last season's playoffs. In those games, Luck combined for 47/91 (51.6%), 665 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. That's a passer rating of 58.2, or roughly Brady Quinn. Those are some pretty crummy numbers.

Patriots 5th-string cornerback Alfonzo Dennard is the prime beneficiary of Luck, with three interceptions and a touchdown and, fun fact, he's thrown as many touchdowns to Patriots (2) as he has to T.Y. Hilton.

So of course the home-favorite Colts will be playing with a chip on their shoulder because they would like to beat the Patriots- primarily for playoff seeding, but that's less interesting at this point in the season.

So in the spirit of tearing down the Colts, let's mention all the other "trends" that are at stake this week.

*) Luck threw for three interceptions in the first match-up and four in the second one. Does this mean he's on pace to throw for five interceptions this week?

*) The Patriots were 10 point favorites in the first match-up and 7 point favorites in the playoffs. They're the 3 point underdogs. If the Patriots and Colts meet again, New England is on target to be 20 point underdogs according to the polynomial relationship.

*) The Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl without Adam Vinatieri. This game isn't a Super Bowl, but it's probably a topic you'll see.

*) The Colts and Patriots will be squaring off for the third time since 2012- or roughly once per season. The Texans are another team the Patriots have played three times since 2012. Statistically speaking, the Patriots should expect to play each of the Titans and the Jaguars two more times by the end of the season.

*) Luck's completion rate fell from 54.0% to 48.8%, while his passer rating fell from 63.2 to 53.0. I think we can all expect him to complete a mere 42.6% of his passed for a 42.8 passer rating.

*) Never fear, though, as Brady's completion rate has also fallen: from 68.6% to 52.0%. So he'll actually be completing just 35.4% on his passes on Sunday. He also went from 3:0 TD:INT to 0:0, so that means he's due for three pick-sixes, per the trend.

*) LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley are the top two Patriots running backs from this rivalry of sorts. Shane Vereen is the active leader with 57 rushing yards, following by Julian Edelman with one rush for 47 yards- so if Blount was a free agent, and then Ridley and Vereen are free agents this year, it's likely that Edelman is a free agent after next season (editor: no, he's not, stop it).

*) Gronk wasn't available in the 2013 playoffs, but in 2012 he caught 7 of 7 targets for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns. So I think we can pencil that production into the box score. Every other year sort of deal.

*) The Patriots are 1-0 playing away games against an ungulate team while New England is playing their 10th game in week 11 on Sunday Night Football, while coming off of a bye week (2007 against the Bills). So that's a good trend.

So from what I can see, Andrew Luck will play terribly, Brady is on pace to play even worse, the Patriots will find a way to win while sending Edelman off to free agency in the process. I should probably get into prop bets.