The Patriots Had a 16% Chance of Victory In the Second Half

It looked bleak when the Ravens jumped out to a 14-0 lead against the Patriots just 10 minutes into the game. It was worse to see the Patriots hard work to even the score evaporate just four minutes into the second half, when the Ravens regained a two touchdown lead.

28-14 with 25 minutes left to go. It's hard to overcome any deficit, but how big of a hill did the Patriots have to climb to gain the lead?

Patriots had <16% chance of victory at one point! RT @numberFire: Here's the graph - BAL peaked at 84.19%! pic.twitter.com/0xZu6fXktP

— Rich Hill (@PP_Rich_Hill) January 11, 2015

When the Ravens scored at the start of the second half, they had an 84.2% chance of victory. And the Patriots snatched victory by fighting back and evening the score over the next six minutes of the game.

Key of the game? Holding the Ravens to a field goal from a 1st and goal from the 9 yard line to open up the 4th quarter. It gave the Patriots enough space to attain their first lead of the night and to never look back.

Although I guess we all should know better at this point. Never count out Touchdown Tom Brady.