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2014 AFC Championship Patriots vs Colts: Analyzing Patriots Playoff Rematches

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The Patriots are facing the Indianapolis Colts for the second time this season. What does this mean for New England's chances?

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

You've probably seen the statistic that Bill Belichick's Patriots are 10-0 in the postseason against teams they did not face earlier in the season, yet they're 9-8 in rematches. It's presented as a point of concern for New England, and a point of hope for the Indianapolis Colts, who the Patriots dismantled 42-20 back in Week 11.

So, should Patriots fans be concerned about the outcome of the game? Let's breakdown these 17 rematches during the Belichick era.

Tm Year Date H/A Opp G# PO Result PF PA RS1 Result PF PA RS2 Result PF PA
NWE 2001 2/3/2002 N STL 19 W 20 17 L 17 24
NWE 2003 1/10/2004 TEN 17 W 17 14 W 38 30
NWE 2003 1/18/2004 IND 18 W 24 14 W 38 34
NWE 2004 1/16/2005 IND 17 W 20 3 W 27 24
NWE 2004 1/23/2005 @ PIT 18 W 41 27 L 20 34
NWE 2005 1/14/2006 @ DEN 18 L 13 27 L 20 28
NWE 2006 1/7/2007 NYJ 17 W 37 16 L 14 17 W 24 17
NWE 2006 1/21/2007 @ IND 19 L 34 38 L 20 27
NWE 2007 1/20/2008 SDG 18 W 21 12 W 38 14
NWE 2007 2/3/2008 N NYG 19 L 14 17 W 38 35
NWE 2009 1/10/2010 BAL 17 L 14 33 W 27 21
NWE 2010 1/16/2011 NYJ 17 L 21 28 W 45 3 L 14 28
NWE 2011 1/14/2012 DEN 17 W 45 10 W 41 23
NWE 2011 2/5/2012 N NYG 19 L 17 21 L 20 24
NWE 2012 1/13/2013 HOU 17 W 41 28 W 42 14
NWE 2012 1/20/2013 BAL 18 L 13 28 L 30 31
NWE 2013 1/19/2014 @ DEN 18 L 16 26 W 34 31

The first regular season result was the most recent game between the two teams. The Patriots have faced the Jets twice in the post season, so the second regular season result on the far right is the first divisional game of the season.

It would seem that after a 5-0 start in playoff rematches, the Patriots have been 4-8 since 2005.

Looking at New England's eight rematch losses, the Patriots were 4-5 in the regular season against these teams. These loses consist of three away games, two Super Bowls, and three conference championships. Basically, these Patriots lost to good teams.

In reality, five of these eight rematches included a team that had already beaten the Patriots. The other three include the 2007 Giants, where it took a miracle for New York to win, the 2009 Ravens, where leading receiver Wes Welker was injured and out the prior week, and the 2013 Broncos, where the Patriots were fortunate enough to have enough players not on the injured reserve to form a roster.

It took injuries and a miracle for the Patriots to lose to teams they had defeated in the regular season, and the net point differential of those games is a mere 12 points; two of them were decided by 3 points. These weren't teams the Patriots defeated handily in the regular season.

The best comparisons for this rematch would have to be 2007 against the Chargers (regular season: 38-14, postseason 21-12), 2011 against the Broncos (RS: 41-23, PS: 45-10), and 2012 against the Texans (RS: 42-14, PS: 41-28).

While the Patriots have lost in the past to teams they have faced earlier in the season, these were generally against teams that had already defeated New England, or played to a close finish. This is not one of those games.