Does anyone else think that this spread is still way too high?
The goal for the spread is to have bettors place an even amount of money on both sides of the line. Plenty of times the line moves early on before the big money spenders make their plays closer to opening kickoff.
Teams are 78-18 straight up since the start of the 2013 season when they're favored by 9.0 or more points. Most of the losses are from the Saints (2), Texans (3), Broncos (2), 49ers (3), or Seahawks (2). Teams are 9-2 this season, with the only losses coming when the Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL against the Bears and when the Saints lost Drew Brees for a couple weeks with a shoulder injury against the Buccaneers.
Barring an injury or a game against the Rams, the team favored by 9 or more will most likely win.
So why do I feel so uncomfortable with this? Do the odds reflect the house expecting an influx of "Revenge Tour!" bets from New Englanders? Or do they actually think the Patriots are that much better?
For the record, FiveThirtyEight offers their own spreads based off of their statistical analysis and they have the Patriots as 11.5-point favorites. As this isn't related to money placement, shouldn't I feel more comfortable with the Patriots as 9-point favorites?
Why do I feel like this will be much closer than that? Yes, the Patriots have won five of their last six against the Jets, but the game came down to three points or fewer in five of those contests- and this year's Jets team is a lot better than the dregs that the Jets let Rex Ryan play with.
Does anyone else feel more confident? Let us know in the comments.