freeland1787's Power Rankings System: Week 8 Update

This week, I've made more tweaks to the formula. I've changed the Special Teams grade to be a weighted average, added situational downs, and reformatted the offense and defense scores to average the drive grades before averaging that value with the Yards Per Play and Situational Grade. Situational Downs include 3rd down, 4th down, and Red Zone. Next year's sheet will also include Goal-To-Go situations. The Situational Grade is weighed by occurrence as well.

Situational = (3D Grade*3DA+4D Grade*4DA+RZ Grade*RZP)/(3DA+4DA+RZP)

For non-weighted grades, the formula is the same. It's the difference of how better or worse the team is performing than league average, divide that by the league average number, multiply by 100% and then add 50%. That makes league average 50%. If you want the team to have a higher number than league average, the difference formula is the team's number subtracted by the league average. If you want the team to have a lower number, then difference is league average minus team number.

Special Teams features a completely different grading system for Week 8. For kickoff and punt coverage, the grades are determined by the number of kicks and the number of returns attempted against the coverage. For kickoffs, a weighted average for Touchback Grade and Kick Return grade divided by the number of Kickoffs. Touchback grade is determined by Touchback Percentage and how it compares to league average. Punt coverage is similar, there is the Net Punting and Punt Returns allowed numbers.

KO Coverage = (TB Grade*Kickoffs+KR Grade Allowed*KR Allowed)/Kickoffs
Punt Coverage = (Net Punting*Punts+PR Grade Allowed*PR Allowed+Inside 20/TB ratio*(TB+I20))/Punts

Kick Return and Punt Return Grades are fairly simple, it just weighs the kick and punt return averages against league average.

The final special teams grade is

((KO Coverage*Kickoffs+KR Grade*KR+Punt Coverage*Punts+PR Grade*PR)+(Off Field*Off Drives+Def Field*Def Drives)/Total Drives)/2

Confusing math lesson aside, here is the Spreadsheet for the NFL Teams through Week 7.

Once again, the New England Patriots are #1 in the rankings. The Patriots have the #1 offense (85), the #18 defense (47), the #1 Special Teams (76), and the #1 overall grade (71). In terms of tiers, the Patriots fall just a bit short of the great tier, which is an overall of 73 or better. The idea of a great team would be what the 2007 team did, head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Right now the Patriots offense is near impossible to stop, which took on a Jets defense rated 95 before the game and formula changes on defense and dropped them to 81 before the formula change. The Jets defense is currently rated 80. If there are areas the Patriots need to improve upon defensively, it's not dropping interceptions on tipped passes and performing better on situational downs. If they can get that done, they'll ascend into the ranking's top tier. Their next opponent is the 20th ranked Miami Dolphins.