I know, I know. We’re not supposed to talk about it. But halfway through the 2015 NFL regular season, the New England Patriots have maintained a perfect record at 8-0 and the murmurs are well underway about the potential for them team to reach 16-0.
As Michael pointed out yesterday, the Patriots are about to face the toughest stretch of their schedule. They have four consecutive games against teams .500 or better, including two division winners. Then, they will finish the season with three road games in their final four. That includes back-to-back road divisional games against the Jets and Dolphins to close the season.
It will be tough, but aside from the Broncos match-up, the Patriots figure to be favored in each game. That being said, what are the actual odds of the Patriots making it to the postseason undefeated?
NumberFire has crunched the numbers, and their projections have the Patriots finishing undefeated 6.08% of the time. While those odds are low, NumberFire says their chances to be the league’s last unbeaten team are much higher at 50.66%. That number is increased 12.7% since last week – thanks to the Broncos’ upset loss to the Colts. Of the three remaining undefeated teams (the Bengals and the Panthers being the other two), the Patriots have the most difficult schedule.
As you would guess, the playoffs and a division title for the Patriots are a virtual certainty – at 99.96% and 97.68%, respectively. The odds for a conference championship and Super Bowl title have also increased considerably – to 44.12% and 25.18%.
Of course, these are just projections that are entertaining to look at. The Patriots themselves are certainly taking things one game at a time. They haven’t accomplished anything yet. What record do you think the Patriots will close the regular season with?