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The New England Patriots get a rematch with the Buffalo Bills with the AFC East on the line (not really). The Patriots are looking to return three key offensive linemen in Sebastian Vollmer (concussion), Marcus Cannon (toe), and back-up right guard Tre Jackson (knee). Even the losses of Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis can't keep this offense off the tracks.
Quarterback Tom Brady is a must start as he's the perfect quarterback to take down this Bills defense. Buffalo still struggles to defend quarterbacks with quick releases, even though their corners are some of the best in the league. He's a QB1 lock as the Patriots will probably throw the ball a lot to avoid the Bills defensive line.
Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor should sit. While the Patriots love to give up garbage time points to opposing teams, Taylor still lacks pocket awareness and the Patriots are going to set him up for multiple turnover chances from sacks and interceptions. Taylor's top receivers are a tight end, two wide receivers, and then his running back. He doesn't have a good #3 receiver. This is a perfect match-up for the Patriots.
If you want to stream a quarterback this week, you can probably look to the Chiefs Alex Smith, the Jets Ryan Fitzpatrick, or the Colts Matt Hasselbeck, all of whom have better match-ups and are owned in <40% of leagues.
Running back LeGarrette Blount is a must start for his high touchdown value, even if the Patriots are probably going to pass the ball. Tip of the hat to Rich Hribar on Rotoworld for this next fact: Since Blount became involved in the offense from week 3, no player has more touches inside the 5-yard-line, which makes Blount a high touchdown option.
Bills running back LeSean McCoy is a must play, but don't expect too much out of him as a rusher. The Patriots rank #2 in the league in rushing yards allowed per game because Tom Brady and the offense puts up points early and takes the ball away from the opposing running backs. McCoy offers value as a receiver in the backfield, especially with Jamie Collins a question mark at linebacker. The Patriots used safety Patrick Chung to shut down the Giants Shane Vereen, so this is another possible match-up.
Both receivers Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola are must plays this week. Amendola is expected to pick up a bulk of the targets left from Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, while the Patriots have had success with the deep and outside throws against this Bills defense in the past. Edelman saw a whopping 19 targets in week 2, while Lewis saw 9, and Amendola had 2 of his own. That's 30 targets. Amendola's primed for a HUGE week.
Remember that Aaron Dobson collected 7 receptions for 87 yards back in week 2 while LaFell was sidelined with an injury. LaFell is a much better player and should see a bigger volume of targets than Dobson, who saw 8 in week 2.
The Bills offer Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods at wide receiver, and I wouldn't be comfortable playing either. For all the talk of Watkins roasting Darrelle Revis last week, he posted 14 touchdownless yards on the day. That's it. Woods is the player that historically warps the Patriots defense, with an average of 5 targets against New England, and a touchdown in four out of five career games.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski is a must-play, as always, as he's averaged 11 targets and 103 yards in his past two games against the Bills.
Bills tight end Charles Clay isn't worth playing since the Patriots have allowed an average of 3.6 points to tight ends since their bye week, going up against better tight ends in Jason Witten, Coby Fleener, Jordan Cameron, and Jordan Reed. Clay has never had success against the Patriots. You'd be better off streaming a player like the Falcons Jacob Tamme, the Colts Coby Fleener, or the Lions Eric Ebron, all owned in under 40% of leagues.