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Potential 2nd Round Targets

Who are potential targets for the Patriots on the second day of the draft?

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

With the 1st round of the draft ending with the Patriots drafting Texas DL Malcom Brown, we're onto the 2nd round. The Patriots currently hold the 64th, 96th, and 97th pick for today's picks. The Patriots initially were planning on trading down to the Texans pick at 51 (from the news I heard, the Texans might have taken Indiana RB Tevin Coleman with that pick), but then something different happened thanks to the Colts making a head-scratching pick. We may see the Patriots try to move into that range today, except they will be trading up instead of down. In terms of draft range, the highest the Patriots could pick is right around 38 (64+96+101+131), but I don't think the Patriots are going to send 4 picks to jump into that range if they were willing to trade into the 50s.

I've compiled possible trades from 64, here are my conclusions:

64 + 96 + 101 = 41; This comes from the 2013 trade which the Patriots traded 29 for 52, 83, 102, and 217. Draft Trade Calculator says those three picks are roughly the equivalent of the 41st pick as well.

64 + 96 +131 = 48; A high 4th will have much more value than a late 4th. The difference is about the value of a 4th rd selection. At that range, I believe a 4th rd selection is the equivalent of 7 picks based on empirical data from draft day traded the last 3-4 drafts.

64 + 96 = 52; Dropping the late 4th will move the draft pick value down a few picks, but doesn't change the overall board than 48.

64 + 101 = 53; The difference between 96 and 101 is two picks on the trade chart since 97-99 are un-tradable. That probably doesn't change the overall value at all by more than 1 selection.

64 + 131 = 57; Difference in value from 101 to 131 is about the equivalent of a 5th and 6th rd pick. That doesn't move the board to much in terms of draft pick value.

These trade value numbers are a rough estimate on how much I value those particular picks. It will probably show up differently on a draft value calculator if you plug it in yourself. Based on that range, the Patriots can pick anywhere from 40-64 in the 2nd round. Some players I had pegged for the first round ended up slipping into the second round, here are some names to consider if they fall into the 40s and 50s:

  • CB/S Eric Rowe, Utah
  • OT TJ Clemmings, Pitt
  • G AJ Cann, South Carolina
  • LB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
The Patriots have been heavily linked to Cann in the draft process, so any news of the Patriots potentially trading up will sound the alarm bells for teams interested in picking him. Unless Cann goes in the first 10 picks of the 2nd round, speculation of the Patriots trading up will start and then we'll see a trade or two in the late 40s/early 50s for a team that needs a guard. Had the Patriots traded down to 51 as they initially planned, they would have more flexibility to move up into the 40s to draft their guy. However, the value that Malcom Brown brings to the roster is more than I would expect a player drafted in the 40s to bring.

So that begs the question, what exactly would they be looking for at 50?

The draft has a lot of twists and turns, each one further changing the draft board. Earlier this week, I wrote about the Patriots perhaps attempting to trade up from 64 (along with moving down from 32, which almost happened). With the Saints selecting Anthony, the Bengals selecting Ogbuehi and the Patriots selecting Brown, you can cross off everyone but Rollins, Lockett, and Abdullah. While I'm not 100% sure if the Texans were willing to pick Coleman at 32, I'm confident he won't make it past the 51st pick if that report is true. Here are some names I have going in that range (45-55):

  • WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
  • TE Clive Walford, Miami (FL)
  • CB Quinten Rollins, Miami (OH)
  • CB Steven Nelson, Oregon State
  • ED Lorenzo Mauldin (projects to LB)
  • RB TJ Yeldon, Alabama
  • RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
For those guys, I probably wouldn't consider a trade up. However, I would consider drafting most of them at 64. If no one in the first list of players falls into the late 40s/early 50s, the Patriots might as well stay put and move the 96th pick into 2016 if they can (i.e. 2010 draft day trade with the Carolina Panthers that netted the Patriots the 33rd pick in 2011). There are still a lot of options available on the board, considering the difference in talent from 20-70 is small. The Patriots could end up picking an inside the tackles RB or receiver if they stay put at 64. Last night, Bill mentioned he didn't really start to pay attention to the draft until about the 20th pick. That probably means the same will hold until the draft reaches the 45th pick. Day 2 is usually Bill Belichick's day to shine, we'll see what excitement he'll bring to the party.