About two weeks ago Rich Hill addressed a piece written by Brad Oremland for footballperspective.com titled "The 101 Best Quarterbacks in NFL History." Rich critiqued the piece, methodically going through and pointing out the flawed logic Oremland used to draw his conclusion that Peyton Manning deserved to be ranked ahead of Tom Brady. Rich even cited one of my previous pieces about how domes inflate passing statistics. There was a part of Oremland's piece that Rich barely addressed, but that I took great exception to.
Like John Elway or Roger Staubach, a multiple Super Bowl loser famous for his clutch play.
This is how he started off with his analysis of Tom Brady, the NFL's all time leader in playoff victories and four time Super Bowl champion. Guess how many time's Oremland states that Peyton Manning has the most playoff losses in NFL history? The answer is zero. Does Oremland refer to Peyton Manning, with a record of 1-2 in Super Bowls, as a multiple playoff loser? Of course not. Oremland clearly has more spin than a merry-go-round. Part of me thinks it's an alias that Scott Kacsmar is using so that people don't immediately call him out for his bull-crap. That said, in honor of Oremland's overwhelming stupidity, it has given me motivation to write yet another piece filled with hard data supporting Handsome Tom.
Let's talk about the playoffs. Nearly two years ago, I wrote a piece called "The Curse of Expectations." That post detailed how Tom Brady's 8-7 playoff record since winning his last Super Bowl in 2004 was used to bash Brady, despite the fact that just Brady's 2005-2012 career stood with some of the best quarterbacks of all time. It's two years later and I've done some digging into quarterback's playoff records.
This first chart is pretty self-explanatory. It goes in descending order from the quarterback with the most playoff wins to the quarterback with the least. In order for a quarterback to qualify for the list, they had to have played in at least 11 playoff games. Players highlighted yellow are currently active.
After I compiled this list, I wanted to know what a quarterbacks playoff record would look like when their Super Bowl seasons were removed. That led to this.
|Quarterback||Wins||Losses||SB Victories||SB Wins||Non-SB Wins||Non-SB Losses|
The final product looks like this:
|Quarterback||Non-SB Wins||Non-SB Losses||Win %|
For help interpreting this chart, playoff losses will equal the number of seasons a quarterback made the playoffs but did not win the Super Bowl. So if you're wondering how many times a quarterback made the playoffs but didn't win the Super Bowl, the losses column of the above chart has your answer.
Tom Brady stands with the second most playoff wins all time in seasons where he didn't win the Super Bowl. He also is one of a handful of players with a winning record in these seasons. Also, Tom Brady is the only multiple Super Bowl WINNER with a winning record in his non-Super Bowl seasons.
|Quarterback||Super Bowl Victories||Non-SB Wins||Non-SB Losses||Win %|
But what about Oremland's multiple Super Bowl losers? How does Tom Brady stack up with them?
|Quarterback||Super Bowl Losses||Non-SB Wins||Non-SB Losses||Win %|
Interestingly, most multiple Super Bowl winners have losing records if you remove their Super Bowl victories. On the flip side, most multiple Super Bowl losers have winning records if you remove their Super Bowl victories. The big exceptions just happen to be Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, and it doesn't look pretty for Peyton.
Oremland, by taking a pot-shot at Brady for his two Super Bowl losses, actually opened the door to a greater understanding of Brady's unmistakable dominance.
Since I think Oremland and Scott Kacsmar are the same person, I decided to address something Kacsmar has brought up in his defense of Peyton as well. He's always trying new things to protect his binky, and one of them that I found intriguing was that Peyton has the most playoff losses to the eventual Super Bowl champion in NFL history. I decided to look up where the other players stood in this regard. For those of you wondering, yes, losing in the Super Bowl counts.
|Quarterback||Playoff Losses To Eventual Super Bowl Champion||Years|
|Peyton Manning||6||2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2012, 2013|
|Brett Favre||5||1993, 1995, 1997, 2007, 2009|
|Ken Stabler||4||1973, 1974, 1975, 1980|
|Jim Kelly||4||1990, 1991, 1992, 1993|
|Tom Brady||4||2006, 2007, 2011, 2012|
|Kurt Warner||3||2001, 2008, 2009|
|Fran Tarkenton||3||1973, 1974, 1976|
|Joe Flacco||3||2008, 2010, 2014|
|Steve Young||3||1992, 1993, 1996|
|John Elway||3||1986, 1987, 1989|
|Ben Roethlisberger||2||2004, 2010|
|Bob Griese||2||1971, 1979|
|Donovan McNabb||2||2002, 2004|
|Roger Staubach||2||1975, 1978|
|Terry Bradshaw||2||1972, 1976|
|Dan Marino||2||1984, 1998|
|Joe Montana||2||1986, 1990|
You might be looking at that and think that Peyton had terrible luck running into the eventual Super Bowl champion that many times. The truth is, Peyton has made the playoffs the most amount of times in league history and thus he had more chances to eventually get paired up with a team that went on to win the Super Bowl. Also, such a stat punishes quarterbacks that did win the Super Bowl. It's kind of hard to have losses to the eventual Super Bowl champion when you are the Super Bowl champion.
A better way to look at this would be getting the rate that a quarterback got bounced by the eventual Super Bowl champion in their non-Super Bowl winning seasons.
|Quarterback||Playoff Losses To Eventual Super Bowl Champion||Non-SB Winning Playoff Seasons||Bad Luck %|
The average "Bad Luck %" is 40%. Peyton has had slightly worse luck than average having to play the eventual Super Bowl champion. One could argue that losing to the eventual champion is the "best" alternative to winning it, acknowledging what round that loss occurred in as well. The thing is, this can't be used for the pro-Peyton crowd in a debate over Brady because Brady's actually has had worse luck in playing the eventual Super Bowl champion in the playoffs.
There's one last thing in Oremland's piece that I can quickly address as well. He brings up Peyton's lack of having top-10 and top-5 defenses and tries to paint him as a hero.
Only six times in his 16-year career has Manning paired with a top-10 defense, and only twice with a defense in the top five. In that context, his team results — 12 straight seasons of double-digit wins, three Super Bowl appearances — seem heroic rather than disappointing.
|Peyton Manning||Years||Playoff Record|
|Top 10 Points||2002, 2005, 2007-2009, 2012||2-6|
|Top 5 Points||2005, 2007, 2012||0-3|
What a hero! For transparency:
|Records||Peyton Manning||Tom Brady|
|Top 1 Defenses||0-1||3-0|
|Top 2 Defenses||0-2||8-1|
|Top 5 Defenses||0-3||10-3|
|Top 10 Defenses||2-6||18-6|
|Not Top 10 Defenses||9-7||3-2|
Peyton Manning has 1 Super Bowl appearance and 5 one and dones with a top-10 defense. Tom Brady has 5 Super Bowl appearances, 4 Super Bowl wins, and 2 one and dones with a top-10 defense.
Peyton Manning has 2 Super Bowl appearances, 1 Super Bowl win, a winning record, and 4 one and dones without a top-10 defense. Tom Brady has 1 Super Bowl appearance and a winning record without a top-10 defense.
Arguing that Peyton was at a disadvantage with a lack of top ranked defenses in his career would make sense if Peyton won when he had them. But he didn't. In fact, his record is terrible with top defenses. Actually, Peyton's record is terrible period.
It was a bit surprising for footballperspective.com to allow that drivel on their site. Hopefully they go back to producing better content. If they continue to allow idiots like
Scott Kacsmar Brad Oremland to write for them, they'll damage the intellectual integrity of their product. Fortunately we have Rich Hill and other members to take those articles down a peg with well-researched facts and opinions of their own.