5. Tom Brady completes a 43-yard pass to Rob Gronkowski on 1st and 10 on the 8th play of the game to bring the ball to the 9 yard line (+3.18 EPA). The Patriots were in the driver's seat early on and Gronkowski did a lot of damage on this play.
4. Tom Brady completes a 17-yard pass to Scott Chandler on 3rd and 4 to bring the ball to the goal line (+3.40 EPA). The Patriots punched the ball into the end zone with a LeGarrette Blount dive, but Chandler definitely helped set up a big score.
3. Aaron Dobson draws a 52-yard pass interference call on 1st and 20 (+3.43 EPA). Sure, Dobson was hit in the stomach and should have caught the ball, but the result is all that we're looking at- and no one can complain with the result.
2. Tom Brady completes an 8-yard pass to Scott Chandler for a first down on the goal line on 3rd and 8 (+3.44 EPA). Of course, it wasn't actually a first down, but the officials let it stand because the Jaguars didn't feel like challenging the position. This was the second time Chandler brought the ball just shy of the end zone.
This was a "please end the game" non-challenge. pic.twitter.com/XMOffyszbq— Rich Hill (@PP_Rich_Hill) September 28, 2015
1. Devin McCourty intercepts a Blake Bortles pass at the Patriots 16 yard line and returns it 27 yards (+4.39 EPA). Prior to the play, the Jaguars were expecting to score 2.59 points as they were on the Patriots 45 yard line- close to field goal range. After the interception, the Patriots were expected to score 1.80 points before halftime.
It seems like Gronkowski was almost shut out of these top plays! He actually had the 5th, 6th, and 7th best plays, with Keshawn Martin's touchdown ranking 8th. According to the odds, the 43-yard pass to Gronkowski was the most important play for the Patriots as it boosted their odds of winning 4.2% to 91.8%, tying McCourty's interception for the play that had the biggest effect on the chance of winning.
5. Blake Bortles completes an 11-yard pass to Allen Hurns on 3rd and 10 early in the 2nd quarter (-1.96 EPA). In a common thread, Bortles did a ton of damage on third down, which gives Bill Belichick plenty to work with during the bye week.
4. Blake Bortles completes an 11-yard pass to Clay Harbor on 2nd and 10 to the Patriots 6-yard line in garbage time (-1.98 EPA). While the Patriots probably wanted to keep Jacksonville out of the end zone, the defense was mostly focused on draining the clock.
3. Blake Bortles completes a 26-yard pass to Clay Harbor on 3rd and 10 early in the 1st quarter (-2.95 EPA). The Patriots were letting Bortles escape 3rd down situations and this was a painful one.
2. Blake Bortles completes a 37-yard pass to Allen Robinson over Justin Coleman in garbage time (-2.99 EPA). This didn't really have an impact on the game, but it was a big play over the new cornerback.
1. Blake Bortles completes a 59-yard touchdown pass to Allen Hurns over Malcolm Butler and Duron Harmon on 3rd and 6 (-6.3 EPA). In one of the most damaging plays of the year, the Patriots defense let Bortles escape another 3rd and long situation with the worst possible result.
The 6th best play from the Jaguars was Blake Bortles' tuck rule fumble forced by Jamie Collins on 3rd and 7, that was recovered by Jaguars running back Toby Gerhart for a first down. It was that type of day for the Jaguars.