The New England Patriots are 11-2, but they have not yet clinched a playoff berth. There’s still a nightmare scenario where the Patriots lose their remaining three games, while the Dolphins and Broncos win out, and the Chiefs and Raiders win two of their final three games, leaving the Patriots on the outside.
Instead, the Patriots will have to wait until next week to start clinching playoff berths. While the Patriots are not able to win homefield advantage next week- more on this in a bit- the Patriots have multiple ways to clinch a first round bye and the AFC East.
Clinch the AFC East
1. Jets beat or tie the Dolphins
2. Patriots beat or tie the Broncos
The Patriots need to pick up half a game on the Dolphins in order to clinch the division, so there are a few way for the Patriots to reach this goal.
Clinch a first round bye week
1. Patriots beat or tie the Broncos
2. Jets beat or tie the Dolphins AND Chiefs beat the Titans
3. Jets beat or tie the Dolphins AND the Bengals beat or tie the Steelers
The Patriots can clinch the bye week with a head-to-head victory over the Broncos, but there are two ways for the Patriots to clinch will still losing.
The Patriots need to pick up the half a game on the Dolphins to win the division, but they need some help from the AFC North or the Chiefs to fall backwards into a bye week.
Needing the Steelers to lose makes sense; the Patriots could lose a three-way tie against the Steelers and the AFC West winner, despite holding the head-to-head against Pittsburgh. A Pittsburgh loss or tie would guarantee that the Patriots finish the season with a better record than the Steelers.
The Chiefs-Titans game is a little more curious. How does this affect the Patriots? Well, a Kansas City win guarantees that the Denver Broncos can’t win the AFC West, eliminating the possibility that the Patriots lose the first round bye due to a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos.
In other words, a Chiefs victory means that either: 1) at worst the Patriots, Chiefs, and Steelers have a three-way tie at 11-5, with the Patriots and Steelers getting the bye week; 2) the AFC West winner will have a better record than the Patriots, putting the head-to-head victory over the Steelers back in play.
Why can’t the Patriots clinch the #1 seed?
If the Patriots win and move to 12-2, and the Chiefs and Raiders lose to fall to 10-4, then the Chiefs are eliminated from the #1 seed because the Patriots hold the tiebreakers. But there’s still a chance that the Patriots lose their remaining two games and the Raiders win theirs and take the AFC West, giving the two teams matching 12-4 records with Oakland holding the tiebreaker due to common games (ie: the Patriots week 4 loss to the Bills).