The AFC playoff teams have been decided, but week 17 offers the chance for some re-racking of the seeding. There are three games that will dictate how the AFC playoff seeding is set:
Patriots at Dolphins
Raiders at Broncos
Chiefs at Chargers
There are just 8 different results, with five different outcomes for the AFC seeding to play out and 75% of them have the Patriots are the #1 seed. The Steelers and Texans are already set in their #3 and #4 seeds, respectively.
Here’s how the AFC playoff picture can play out.
Scenario A
- Patriots
- Raiders
- Steelers
- Texans
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How:
Patriots win AND Broncos win AND Chargers win
Patriots win AND Raiders win AND Chargers win
Patriots win AND Raiders win AND Chiefs win
If the Patriots win, they are the #1 seed in the AFC. Because the Chiefs hold the season sweep of the Raiders, Oakland only retains the first round bye if they remain a game ahead of the Chiefs.
Scenario B
- Patriots
- Chiefs
- Steelers
- Texans
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How:
Patriots win AND Broncos win AND Chiefs win
Dolphins win AND Broncos win AND Chiefs win
The Patriots can retain the #1 seed with a loss only if the Raiders also lose. A Raiders loss and a Chiefs win would flip the AFC West ranking and give the Chiefs a first round bye.
Scenario C
- Patriots
- Raiders
- Steelers
- Texans
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How:
Dolphins win AND Broncos win AND Chargers win
This might be the most unlikely of scenarios, where the Patriots and Raiders lose, and then the Chiefs lose to the Chargers giving the Dolphins the #5 seed. This would be the best possible scenario for Miami, since they get a game against the hapless Texans in the opening round.
Scenario D
- Raiders
- Patriots
- Steelers
- Texans
- Dolphins
- Chiefs
How:
Dolphins win AND Raiders win AND Chargers win
The Patriots will lose the #1 seed with a loss and a Raiders win; Miami takes the #5 seed with the Chiefs loss.
Scenario E
- Raiders
- Patriots
- Steelers
- Texans
- Chiefs
- Dolphins
How: Dolphins win AND Raiders win AND Chiefs win
The Raiders claim the #1 seed and this might be the toughest sledding for New England.