The New England Patriots are going on the road to face the Miami Dolphins, where they have not won since 2012. The Dolphins have won nine of their past ten games, are considered one of the hottest teams in football, and they’re fighting for a chance to face the hapless Houston Texans during wild card weekend.
With that in mind, Las Vegas set up the opening line as Dolphins +6, implying that the Patriots should win, but with a question of whether it will be by more or less than a touchdown.
So far the gamblers have been betting heavily on the Patriots to win and to cover. Vegas has had to increase their spread over the past couple of days, according to OddsShark.
Perhaps the bettors are noting that the Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC, and that it’s New England that has won ten of their past eleven. But the line has leveled out around the Patriots as 10-point favorites.
The Patriots have covered the spread in 12 of their 15 games this year; the exceptions being the two losses and the week 12 game against the New York Jets. They just covered a 17-point spread against the Jets in week 16 and everyone loves to bet on the Patriots in the first place.
I actually lean more towards Vegas’ initial offering, thinking that this could be a game decided by less than a touchdown. But it’s clear that everyone else is thinking a Patriots blowout and the line had to move in response.