The New England Patriots placed TE Rob Gronkowski on the injured reserve, took the field in week 13 to defeat the Los Angeles Rams 26-10, lost WR Danny Amendola to an ankle injury, and moved on to the Baltimore Ravens. The Patriots are 10-2 and close to a first-round bye. Bill Belichick and company keep trucking.
Despite the continued success of the Patriots, Las Vegas oddsmakers are selling their shares, according to Bovada.
While oddsmakers are no longer offering odds for the AFC East because they believe the Patriots have it locked up, New England’s odds in the AFC have taken a hit.
The Patriots odds of being the AFC Champion have fallen from 10/11 to 7/5, while the other contenders have either improved or stayed flat. The Raiders now have 5/1 odds, while the Steelers (11/2) are third, despite the fact that Pittsburgh wouldn’t qualify for the playoffs if they started today.
The Colts are the big risers moving from 22/1 to 9/1 odds after demolishing the hapless Jets. The Chiefs (13/2), Broncos (12/1), and Ravens (16/1) have all made incremental increases.
In a corresponding move, the Patriots Super Bowl odds have dropped from 12/5 to 3/1. The Cowboys (7/2), Seahawks (21/4), Raiders (10/1), Steelers (12/1), Chiefs (14/1), and Colts (up from 50/1 to 18/1) have either improved their odds or remained flat.
Patriots QB Tom Brady is also seeing the side effects of losing Gronkowski in the MVP rankings. Brady has fallen into a tie for third place with Lions QB Matt Stafford with 15/2 odds, with Cowboys rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott (12/5) and Raiders QB Derek Carr (7/2) holding down the top two spots.
The only way for Brady to win the MVP award in 2016 would be if his production in the 12 games after his suspension were comparable to the 16-game production of the other MVP candidates. Three of his past four games have featured sub-100 passer ratings and his efficiency ratings have come back down to earth after his torrid start.
The longer the Raiders keep pace with the Patriots, the more likely it is for Carr to beat Brady in the final voting, while it’s probable that Elliott and fellow Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott will split the Dallas vote.
Brady will have to uncork the Gronk-less offense over the final four weeks and make a push for the top 5 in touchdowns, while increasing his yards per attempt and completion rate, and avoiding interceptions.