I'm not quite sure where the term "receiver share" originated, but I believe it sources from the fantasy football website RotoViz. The concept is fairly simple: what percentage of the total passing offense was the receiver of note?
For example, in the regular season games where New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman played and collected 692 receiving yards, the offense as a whole gained 3043 passing yards.
Therefore, Edelman's receiver share for 2015 was 22.7%.
This concept extends to wide receiver prospects in the draft with the goal of highlighting the wide receivers that were able to function are the main focus of their respective team's passing attack. While box score scouting should never take the place of actual game tape, the idea is that a player should be able to dominate in their offense at the collegiate level if they will be asked to perform a similar capacity in the NFL.
If a player doesn't dominate in college, then how can a team expect them to thrive in the NFL?
Think of it this way: Patriots wide receiver Aaron Dobson accounted for just 19.7% of Marshall's receiving yards in his final season in college. If Dobson wasn't able to absolutely demolish Conference USA opponents (and his teammate Tommy Schuler accounted for 26.0% of the Marshall passing offense, so it was certainly possible to produce at a greater level), then why should the Patriots have expected Dobson to take another jump in the NFL?
So with that in mind, we can look at college wide receiver prospects that were the focal points of their passing offenses. I have additionally factored in touchdowns to the receiver shares, using Football Perspective Chase Stuart's touchdown adjustment.
I have picked out draft-eligible wide receivers with a minimum of 800 receiving yards, which captures most top tier receivers. I have added in the three other top 20 draft prospects per CBS Draft Rankings, just for the sake of comparison. Those three are Ohio State receivers Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller, and California's Kenny Lawler.
Two of these three come at the bottom of the receiver share rankings. Scroll down for the main takeaways.
Heights and weights are included. Heights are four digit numbers courtesy of NFL Draft Scout, where the first digit is feet, the next two are inches, and the final digit is eights of an inch.
|1||Paul McRoberts||Southeast Missouri||6016||202||76||940||9||52.3%|
|4||Pharoh Cooper||South Carolina||5105||208||66||973||8||40.0%|
|5||William Fuller||Notre Dame||5116||184||62||1258||14||39.8%|
|8||Hunter Sharp||Utah State||5113||199||71||839||9||38.0%|
|9||Daniel Braverman||Western Michigan||5095||178||108||1367||13||37.5%|
|10||Rashard Higgins||Colorado State||6015||188||74||1061||8||37.2%|
|11||Aaron Burbridge||Michigan State||6001||210||85||1258||7||36.8%|
|12||Jordan Williams||Ball State||6024||226||72||920||8||36.5%|
|13||Josh Doctson||Texas Christian||6017||195||78||1326||14||36.4%|
|17||Michael Thomas||Ohio State||6025||210||56||781||9||33.8%|
|20||Mike Thomas||Southern Mississippi||6025||210||71||1391||14||32.9%|
|25||Jenson Stoshak||Florida Atlantic||6003||195||56||816||2||30.7%|
|26||Roger Lewis||Bowling Green State||6005||199||85||1544||16||30.7%|
|27||Devin Lucien||Arizona State||6002||192||66||1074||8||29.3%|
|31||Ed'Marques Batties||Middle Tennessee State||5116||197||82||1048||13||28.0%|
|34||Jakeem Grant||Texas Tech||5061||170||90||1268||10||25.2%|
|37||De'Runnya Wilson||Mississippi State||6041||215||59||905||10||23.1%|
|38||Jesse Kroll||Central Michigan||6025||212||61||866||4||21.8%|
|40||Dom Williams||Washington State||6021||200||75||1040||11||21.4%|
|42||Casey Martin||Southern Mississippi||5095||175||80||925||7||19.7%|
|44||David Glidden||Oklahoma State||5065||185||57||866||3||17.5%|
|46||Jared Dangerfield||Western Kentucky||6014||214||82||844||8||16.8%|
|47||Braxton Miller||Ohio State||6013||204||25||340||3||14.1%|
Southeast Missouri's Paul McRoberts Tips the Scale
McRoberts accounted for over 50% of his team's passing offense. That's incredible. He accounted for 49.5% of the passing yards and 9 of the team's 12 passing touchdowns.
Who is McRoberts? He's a hair under 6'2, and he's a solid 202 lbs. He's actually a basketball player as well, having walked on the team.
There's a great core that should be around in day 2 of the draft
Assuming that Mississippi WR Laquon Treadwell is the only first round lock, and even if one or two other players go at the end of the first round, there will be a ton of options in the second or third round.
Rutgers' Leonte Carroo, South Carolina's Pharoh Cooper, Notre Dame's Will Fuller, Baylor's Corey Coleman, Pittsburgh's Tyler Boyd, Colorado State's Rashard Higgins, Texas Christian's Josh Doctson, and Ohio State's Michael Thomas have all been greater than a third of their college offenses and should be considered top 60 picks.
Massachusett's Tajae Sharpe, Western Michigan's Daniel Braverman, Michigan State's Aaron Burbridge, Tulsa's Keyarris Garrett, Georgia's Malcolm Mitchell, and Houston's Demarcus Ayers would be third, or maybe even fourth, round picks that could develop into impact players.
There are also some late round sleepers
Willing to take a gamble, or rather not use an early pick on a potential bust? Utah State's Hunter Sharp, Ball State's Jordan Williams, Colorado's Nelson Spruce, or Louisiana-Lafayette's Jamal Robinson could be your guy.
These players were above that 33.3% line that I've created in my mind. I think that line makes sense, too, and it's rare for a team to play with more than three top targets when it comes to distribution. The 2014 Patriots had Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, and Brandon LaFell, and then a running back and a rotational position, either Danny Amendola or an extra blocker.
Some highly touted prospects don't fare well
Mississippi's Treadwell actually ranks 32nd in this metric as he only accounted for 26.5% of his team's receiving yards. Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard offered a lot of production in a vacuum, but the total offense was fantastic, so his receiving share isn't as impressive as his counterparts.
No one hurts more than Ohio State's Braxton Miller, who owns the bottom-ranked 14.1% receiver share. Whoever selects him will be banking on his potential, rather than his proven production.
Who should the Patriots target, and when?
Probably out of reach: Baylor's Corey Coleman, Ohio State's Michael Thomas, Texas Christian's Josh Doctson
Early 2nd: Notre Dame's Will Fuller, Pittsburgh's Will Boyd
Late 2nd: Rutgers' Leonte Carroo, South Carolina's Pharoh Cooper, Colorado State's Rashard Higgins
3rd: Southeast Missouri's Paul McRoberts, Michigan State's Aaron Burbridge, Tulsa's Keyarris Garrett
4th: Massachusett's Tajae Sharpe, Western Michigan's Daniel Braverman, Georgia's Malcolm Mitchell, Houston's Demarcus Ayers
5th: Utah State's Hunter Sharp, Ball State's Jordan Williams, Colorado's Nelson Spruce