It is highly likely that the best quarterback in football will not be on the field for the first quarter of the 2016 NFL season: the United States Court of Appeals has ruled in favor of the NFL, re-confirming the four-game suspension of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady for his alleged role in the Deflategate-farce.
The consequences of this ruling will not only be felt by Tom Brady individually, but also by the NFL – the next CBA discussions project to be a lot of fun – and, of course, the Patriots. Let's take a quick look at what Brady likely missing the first four games of the season means for the team.
Starting Role
With Brady on the sidelines (not really, though, as he won't be allowed to practice, travel and generally be with the team during the suspension), three-year veteran Jimmy Garoppolo will be the Patriots' starting quarterback for their first four games.
The 24-year old was drafted by New England in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft and has been Tom Brady's sole back-up the last two years. Over the course of those two seasons, Garoppolo has appeared in 12 games, completing 20 of 31 pass attempts for 188 yards and one touchdown.
Draft
The Patriots are always in the draft market for a quarterback. After all, only one franchise has drafted more quarterbacks than New England since the dawn of the century. Therefore, seeing the team select one with a late round draft pick would not have been a surprise, even if the court had ruled in favor of the NFLPA and Brady.
Now that the court didn't, will the Patriots draft a quarterback with one of their higher selections? Unlikely, as a) the team likes what it has in Garoppolo, and b) the Patriots do not make draft selections based on short-term needs. New England's draft board and plans won't change simply because Brady won't be available for the first four games of the upcoming season.
Free Agency
If the Patriots do not draft a quarterback this week, the team will likely sign at least one undrafted free agent to back up Garoppolo. Even if New England takes a quarterback with one of its draft picks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the team also take a flier on an undrafted player.
Furthermore, look forward to seeing New England sign a veteran free agent. The team did so last year, and will likely do so this year as well. The two most realistic options still on the open market are former Patriots Matt Flynn and Ryan Lindley.
Training Camp
With Brady scheduled to be out the first four weeks of the season, the team has to carefully manage practice reps over the course of the summer. Brady is still the undisputed starter, even if he will only be on the field for 12 of the team's 16 regular season games. However, Garoppolo needs to be ready for the first four games and develop chemistry with the team's skill position players.
Regular Season Schedule
The Patriots will have to play the following games without Brady:
Week 1: at Arizona Cardinals
Week 2: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 3: vs. Houston Texans
Week 4: vs. Buffalo Bills
The opening day match-up against last year's NFC finalists was projected to be a tough game even with Brady available. A loss would therefore not come as a surprise. The same cannot be said about the subsequent three games: all at home, all against opponents that do not have the same top-to-bottom talent the Cardinals have. Until Garoppolo does take the field on September 11 and shows what he is capable of, however, the games are near impossible to project.
Playoffs
The Patriots' road to the playoffs does get harder without the league's best player on the field. Given that the team has a talented roster and plays a favorable early schedule, missing Brady shouldn't hurt the team's chances of winning the division and thus reaching the playoffs too much. A first-round bye could be in danger, though. However, as said above, it is all speculation at this point.
Offensive Philosophy
Without Brady's elite passing, the Patriots could try to play more balanced, run-oriented offensive football. However, the game plans won't change too much as the overall philosophy of adapting it according to the opponent won't be changed.
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The New England Patriots will definitely face a tough challenge playing without Tom Brady. Given their roster, schedule and what Jimmy Garoppolo has shown in limited playing time, the team could be successful even with its all-world quarterback suspended.