There was an extremely interesting debate in the comments section about new Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan that I thought deserved some discussion.
The basic question was what does WR Chris Hogan have to produce to be considered a success?
Former Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell averaged 745 yards in his two seasons with the team, at the low price of $3 million per season. Danny Amendola picked up 648 yards this past season on a contract set at $4.25 million per year, and he's considered to be overpaid. Julian Edelman has averaged 890 yards per scrimmage over the past two seasons for $4.25 million per year.
I decided to jump into the contracts, per Spotrac's database, to see what we could expect.
The Patriots snagged Hogan from the Bills with a 3-year, $12 million contract, or $4 million per season. I looked at the players under contracts between $3 million and $5 million to evaluate similar deals. I also looked at similar contracts for Patriots receivers over the past five seasons, including Edelman, Amendola, LaFell, and Deion Branch.
On the top end is Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders averaging $5 million per season- and producing an average of 94 touches for 1,306 yards from scrimmage. That's insane; Sanders is the only player averaging over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin has the second-best production, with 951 yards from scrimmage on a $4.33 million per year deal.
On the opposite end of the spectrum are deals like Bears receiver Eddie Royal (237 yards from scrimmage on a $5 million deal) and former Patriots receiver Chad Ochocinco (276 yards from scrimmage on a $3.98 million contract).
The first note that jumps out, and it's a clear sign of Tom Brady's value to this offense, is how many receivers the Patriots grab in this range- and just how productive they can be. Of the nine most productive players in this price range, five were members of the Patriots: Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Branch, and Brandon Lloyd. Sanders, Baldwin, the Ravens' Steve Smith Sr., and the Rams' Kenny Britt are the outsiders.
But if we look at the production of these players, we can project that a player receiving a $4 million contract should expect to produce 52 touches for 633 yards- which is a solid baseline for Hogan.
We can also factor in the "Brady Bonus Bump" as Patriots receivers average 6 touches and 79 yards more than average. So Hogan should rack up an average of 58 touches for 712 yards in order to achieve the projected value of his contract.
I've been on the record saying that I thought that LaFell deserved another shot in the Patriots system because he was greatly outproducing his contract value- with 16 touches and 259 yards above expectation. If we factor in the loss of LaFell, then perhaps Hogan needs to overachieve his contract by LaFellian levels in order to be considered a success.
That would require a 68 touch, 892 yard season from Hogan- and that's right in line with Brandon Lloyd's 74 catch, 911 yard season in 2012, which was also under $4 million contract.
Whether the goal is 600, 700, or 900 yards, all will be uncharted territory. Hogan has a career high of 41 receptions and 450 yards, and he'll have to nearly double his past production to match these values.
Do you think he will?