QB Tom Brady is the top option with 3/2 odds, implying a 40% chance of winning MVP. Falcons QB and likely regular season MVP Matt Ryan is second with 5/2 odds, representative of a 28% chance. Falcons WR Julio Jones (10/1), Patriots WR Julian Edelman (12/1), and Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount (20/1) round out the top five.
Most MVP candidates are on the offensive side of the ball and it would take a multi-sack, multi-forced turnover performance by a defender to earn consideration. Falcons EDGE Vic Beasley Jr. has the best odds of any non-offensive player at 25/1. The field has 20/1 odds.
Surprisingly, CB Logan Ryan is the Patriots defender with the best odds of winning MVP at 40/1, edging out CB Malcolm Butler (66/1) and FS Devin McCourty (75/1). Ryan has better odds than TE Martellus Bennett (50/1), RB James White (66/1), and LB Dont’a Hightower (100/1). WR Chris Hogan (25/1) and RB Dion Lewis (25/1) join Brady, Edelman, and Blount as the only Patriots with better MVP odds.
What I found even more surprising was K Stephen Gostkowski with 50/1 odds, tied with Bennett and ahead of Butler, White, and others. The MVP award has gone to a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver in 40 of the 50 Super Bowls. What would it take for a kicker to win MVP?
It probably would require that no offensive player exceed 100 yards or score a touchdown. And that kicker would have to be responsible for every point the team scored with a minimum of five field goals, including a game winner, while no defender stood out for production- no sacks, forced turnovers, few tackles. Just look at Super Bowl XVI.
The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 26-21 in Super Bowl XVI and 49ers K Ray Wersching connected on all four field goal attempts. QB Joe Montana threw one touchdown and rushed for another, but only had 157 passing yards- and Montana was named MVP.
Gostkowski and Falcons K Matt Bryant share 50/1 odds. If either of them win MVP, they’ll be creating history.