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Las Vegas Oddsmaker: Patriots have a 99% chance of winning the AFC East

Does that seem low?

NFL: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Oddsmaker Bovada gives the New England Patriots 1/100 odds of winning the AFC East, or 99%. That’s extremely high odds for just ten weeks into the season and it trails only the Philadelphia Eagles (1/200; 99.5%) for the most of any projected division winner.

The Patriots also took back the title of Super Bowl favorite from the Eagles with 7/2 odds (22.2%), versus 5/1 for the Eagles (16.7%). Part of that is due to the continued weakening of the AFC competitors, with every other team other than the Pittsburgh Steelers (13/2) either dropping in odds or staying flat. Even the Kansas City Chiefs dropped from 11/1 to 12/1 odds during their bye week.

On the other hand, the NFC teams are all rising up the ranks with the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints tied at 9/1, up from 14/1 last week. The increased competition in the NFC hurts the Eagles’ odds because there are a lot of teams capable of ruining their postseason.

The Patriots must first get through an AFC field that doesn’t seem too intimidating at this point in the time. New England is the AFC favorite with 13/10 odds (43.5%), ahead of the Steelers (9/4) and Chiefs (5/1). The Jacksonville Jaguars (12/1), Tennessee Titans (14/1), and Oakland Raiders (16/1) are the only other teams with better than 50/1 odds of winning the conference.

New England will get a chance at sinking the Raiders and sending them below 50/1 on Sunday in Mexico City, a game for which Bovada actually has a prop bet. The Raiders have not intercepted a pass this year and they have 3/2 odds (40%) that the Raiders will pick off Tom Brady and 1/2 odds (66%) that they will not. The reason why the odds don’t equal 100% is how Vegas makes their money.


Will the Raiders intercept Tom Brady?

This poll is closed

  • 6%
    (29 votes)
  • 93%
    (415 votes)
444 votes total Vote Now

Brady (11/10) still trails Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (1/1) in the MVP voting, with Rams quarterback Jared Goff (9/1), Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (14/1), Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (20/1), and Saints quarterback Drew Brees (25/1) making up the field.

Brady and Wentz should remain the two favorites so long as their teams remain atop their respective conferences and the Brady will have to play Wentz by a margin over the back stretch because the voters simply expect more from Brady; the vast difference in defensive support and production is waved away because the Patriots have Bill Belichick at head coach.

If Brady can throw for more touchdowns than Wentz (Wentz has the edge 23-19 right now), then Brady should be able to capture his third MVP award.