Brady has 67/100 odds (60%) of winning MVP, while Wentz has 11/10 odds (48%)- their percentages exceed 100% so the book can make a profit- with New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson tied for a distant third place with 14/1 odds (7%).
Brady and Wentz lead the two best teams in football so it makes some sense that they’re at the top of the list. But it feels like Wentz is only close to Brady in the odds because he’s a new face and not because he’s actually this close to Brady on the field.
And one easy way to highlight how obvious it is that Brady should be as the NFL’s Most Valuable Player is to follow the suggestion of former Green Bay Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings: What if Jimmy Garoppolo were leading the Patriots and posting the exact same numbers as Brady? Wouldn’t he be the league’s undisputed MVP?
“This is interesting for me, but it’s Tom Brady,” Jennings said when asked about his choice for NFL MVP. “It’s Tom Brady. You know I’ve been on this Carson Wentz train, bandwagon, whatever you want to call it and he’s played excellently. But I think sometime as a fan and as a spectator we become enamored with the new person, the new kid.
“When I look at the NBA and we look at what LeBron James has done over the course of his career, he’s well deserving of the MVP award every single year, as was Michael Jordan, and sometimes I look back and I’m like, to not finish in the top 3 last year in the NBA MVP race...
“And I look at Tom Brady, I’m like, I can’t do that to Tom. Just because he’s in this different stratosphere when it comes to elitism, than most quarterbacks and most players in this league, he’s doing something special at 40 years of age. If we took away the name on his back and it just said [Jimmy] Garoppolo or it said someone else and they were a younger quarterback, we would be saying he’s deserving of the MVP.”
Tom Brady leads the NFL with 3,374 passing yards, 717 more than the 11th-ranked Wentz. Brady leads the NFL with 8.3 yards per attempt, 0.8 yards per attempt greater than the 10th-ranked Wentz. Brady ranks 3rd in completion rate and Wentz ranks aaaaaaall the way at the bottom at 29th. Brady leads the NFL with a 111.7 passer rating, well ahead of the 4th-ranked Wentz at 104.0. Brady leads the NFL with 1,206 DYAR according to Football Outsiders and is second in DVOA, while Wentz ranks 8th in both categories.
Sure, Wentz leads the NFL with 28 touchdown passes while Brady is second with 26, and is second in ESPN’s QBR rating while Brady is third (Case Keenum leads the NFL in this category, though, so take it with a grain of salt...Keenum also leads Brady in DVOA).
But all the numbers point to Brady being the best quarterback in the NFL, with Wentz in the next tier with Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Wentz is still having a great season, but Brady’s on a whole different level.
Brady could put a bow on an MVP season and clinch homefield advantage over the next three weeks, too. Both the Patriots and Eagles are about to embark on three-game road trips. New England plays the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers and could lock up the AFC East and a first round bye if they win all three- and that would certainly help solidify Brady’s MVP argument.
Meanwhile, Wentz and the Eagles hit the road to face the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and New York Giants. There’s a much greater chance that the Eagles take a hit in the coming weeks than the Patriots will, and that will likely dictate the MVP race.
If the Patriots win all three games, they’ll further their hold on a conference that is really down to two teams. According to Bovada, the Patriots have 1/1 odds (50%!) of winning the conference, with the Steelers having 2/1 odds (33%). No other team is greater than 10%.
The NFC offers a much more difficult path for Wentz and the Eagles, with the New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Rams, Carolina Panthers, and Seahawks all having better odds of reaching the Super Bowl than all but the Patriots and Steelers in the AFC.
The Patriots still have the best odds of winning Super Bowl LII with 5/2 odds (29%), with the Eagles at 7/2 (22%), and Steelers at 6/2 (14%). The Saints, Vikings, and Falcons are tied with 12/1 odds (8%); the Rams have 14/1 odds (7%); and the Panthers have 18/1 odds (5%).