The New England Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins 35-17 in week 12. That game took place at Gillette Stadium and with the rematch in Miami in week 14, it’s a really easy launch point for oddsmakers. Homefield advantage is worth three points over a neutral field, so transitioning from New England to Miami is worth six points.
The Patriots were favored by 17 points in week 12 and eventually won by 18 points, so oddsmakers were happy with that mark. Now the Patriots are favored by a consensus 12 points on the road.
Oddsmakers have New England as the favorite by a range of 11.5 to 13.5 points and New England has covered seven of their past eight games when favored by 12 or more points, with week 3’s 36-33 win over the Houston Texans the lone exception.
The last time a team was favored by 12 or more on the road was the Green Bay Packers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2014. The last time the Patriots were such a heavy road favorite was in week 16 of the 2012 season against the Jacksonville Jaguars.