The Patriots have 2/1 odds of making the Super Bowl, or a 33.3% chance. The Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers share second place with 7/1 odds, or a 12.5% chance, and the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans round out the top five with 9/1 odds, or a 10.0% chance.
The Kansas City Chiefs (12/1, 7.7%) and Indianapolis Colts (14/1, 6.7%) are the top wild card candidates, while the Baltimore Ravens (20/1, 4.8%) and the Tennessee Titans (20/1, 4.8%) have outside shots of making the postseason.
Compare the Patriots high odds with the top teams in the NFC and it’s clear how much further ahead New England stands from the competition. The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFC with 9/2 odds (18.2%), followed by the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at 11/2 (15.4%). The Atlanta Falcons (6/1, 14.3%) and New York Giants (9/1, 10.0%) round out the top five.
A Super Bowl with the Patriots, Raiders, or Steelers and the Cowboys, Packers, or Seahawks is the most likely outcome.
In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins (25/1), Buffalo Bills (40/1), and the New York Jets (100/1) rank in the bottom six for teams in the AFC to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, but those odds are related to the Patriots dominance of the division.
The Patriots have 1/5 odds (not a typo) of winning the division, or a 83.3% chance, easily the best odds in the entire league. The Dolphins (5/1), Bills (7/1), and Jets (33/1) have much lower odds compared to their counterparts in other divisions.
The Dolphins 5/1 odds are the worst for any projected second-place team in the league, while the Bills 7/1 odds are second-worst for any third-place team (edged out by the Los Angeles Rams 12/1 odds in the NFC West), and the Jets 33/1 odds are tied with the Cleveland Browns for worst odds by any team in the league.
Many things can change the odds over the course of the season, but the Patriots are heavy favorites to repeat- and injuries might be the only bump in the road that can change the trajectory.