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Oddsmakers: Patriots are 3x more likely to win Super Bowl 52 than any other team

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The Patriots continue to improve their odds heading into the offseason.

I know that odds created by oddsmakers aren’t necessarily about representing reality at this point in the offseason. Oddsmakers are trying to draw money from the biggest fanbases and so teams with the most rabid supporters (New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys) will always appear with the best odds to win the next Super Bowl.

But the Patriots have continued to distance themselves from the field with regards to odds to win Super Bowl 52, per Bovada.

Immediately after winning Super Bowl 51, the Patriots were given 5/1 odds to repeat in 2017 (16.7% chance to repeat), the best odds in the entire league. The Cowboys and Packers were tied for second at 9/1, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers are 12/1. Since those original odds, the Patriots have made major moves that tilted the scales even more in their favor.

After the first couple weeks of free agency, Bovada again released odds and the Patriots crept up to 4/1 odds (20.0% chance). With the draft in the books, the odds have moved up again to 7/2 (22.2%).

Meanwhile, there’s now a five-way tie for second place as both the Cowboys and Packers have dropped to 12/1 odds. Those two franchises are joined by the Atlanta Falcons, Oakland Raiders, and Seattle Seahawks. The Steelers are now tied for seventh with the Houston Texans at 16/1. The Denver Broncos (18/1) and the New York Giants (20/1) round out the top ten.

Now a quick calculation shows that teams with 12/1 odds are considered to have a 7.7% chance of winning Super Bowl 52, which is roughly 13 of the odds given to the Patriots. Or in other words, the Patriots are three-times more likely to win the Super Bowl than any other team.

Of course when you add up all the odds, you get a sum of 124% (which represents what the house is making on these bets). When you consider the Patriots 22.2% odds out of a total of 124%, then the Patriots really have a 17.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl. This doesn’t change the fact that New England still has three-times the odds compared to any other franchise.