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Dolphins odds of challenging Patriots in AFC East fall with addition of QB Jay Cutler

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Oddsmakers believe that Cutler is a big drop in play from Ryan Tannehill.

The Miami Dolphins potentially lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill for the season with an ACL injury and have responded by signing QB Jay Cutler to a one-year deal. Tannehill is not a world-beater by any measure, but he has been a league-average starter for the past three seasons and was expected to take a big step forward in his second season under head coach Adam Gase.

Instead, the Dolphins will have to play Cutler who has spent his career as quarterback equivalent of all-or-nothing; either Cutler would carry the team to victory, or he would turn the ball over twenty times in a single game. Over the past five seasons, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has a higher interception rate than Cutler’s 3.05% (min. 1000 attempts). In fact, Fitzpatrick might be the perfect comparable for Cutler’s contributions to his team with their similar rates of implosion.

Oddsmakers believe that Cutler presents a big drop from Tannehill. BookMaker.eu dropped the Dolphins odds of winning the Super Bowl from 45/1 (2.2%) to 63/1 (1.6%) after Tannehill’s injury and dropped them further to 77/1 (1.3%) after signing Cutler. The Dolphins odds of winning the AFC East have decreased from 11.6% to 9.4%, both of which still seem way too high.

The same book has increased the line for the Patriots week 1 game against the Kansas City Chiefs from -7 to -7.5 as the oddsmakers shift the odds towards a potential New England multi-score victory.