The Miami Dolphins potentially lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill for the season with an ACL injury and have responded by signing QB Jay Cutler to a one-year deal. Tannehill is not a world-beater by any measure, but he has been a league-average starter for the past three seasons and was expected to take a big step forward in his second season under head coach Adam Gase.
Instead, the Dolphins will have to play Cutler who has spent his career as quarterback equivalent of all-or-nothing; either Cutler would carry the team to victory, or he would turn the ball over twenty times in a single game. Over the past five seasons, only Ryan Fitzpatrick has a higher interception rate than Cutler’s 3.05% (min. 1000 attempts). In fact, Fitzpatrick might be the perfect comparable for Cutler’s contributions to his team with their similar rates of implosion.
Oddsmakers believe that Cutler presents a big drop from Tannehill. BookMaker.eu dropped the Dolphins odds of winning the Super Bowl from 45/1 (2.2%) to 63/1 (1.6%) after Tannehill’s injury and dropped them further to 77/1 (1.3%) after signing Cutler. The Dolphins odds of winning the AFC East have decreased from 11.6% to 9.4%, both of which still seem way too high.