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The New England Patriots are the heavy favorites in most championship categories, according to oddsmaker Bovada and to those placing bets before the season. The Patriots have received 29% of all bets for Super Bowl winner, more than quadruple the next-most favored teams (Packers, Steelers, Cowboys at 7%).
Bettors also think the Patriots will hit the over on wins for the season, which was set at 12.5. A whopping 72% have placed money on the over, third-most in the league (Cardinals, o/u 8 wins, 93% over; Panthers, o/u 8.5 wins, 87% over).
Patriots QB Tom Brady is also the favorite to win the MVP award, collecting 16% of all the money, edging out Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (11%) and, surprisingly, Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (8%).
Bovada has also released the over/under for six different players and multiple different season-long stats. Let’s all take a group poll for each regular season over/under.
QB Tom Brady
Passing yards: 4,750 yards
Poll
Tom Brady: 4,750 passing yards
Under. This was the most difficult of all the prop bets, but I think the Patriots will build up enough early leads that the running backs will get the majority of the fourth quarter touches.
Touchdown passes: 37.5
Poll
Tom Brady: 37.5 TD passes
Under. Maybe I’d go with the over if Julian Edelman were around, but I think the Patriots are content to let the running backs score inside the five yard line instead of padding passing scores for Brady. He’s hit the over just twice in his entire career.
Interceptions: 9
Poll
Tom Brady: 9 interceptions
Push. I think Brady gets exactly 9 interceptions this year.
RB Mike Gillislee
Rushing yards: 750
Poll
Mike Gillislee: 750 rushing yards
Over. Barely. I think an 800 yard season isn’t out of the question. Most of his work will be by the goal line or in short yardage situations.
Total (rushing + receiving) touchdowns: 7
Poll
Mike Gillislee: 7 total touchdowns
Over. This is easy, right? Only way he hits the under is if Rex Burkhead takes all of his snaps and Gillislee is traded to Cleveland.
TE Rob Gronkowski
Receiving yards: 1,200
Poll
Rob Gronkowski: 1,200 receiving yards
Under. I think he’s barely crack 1,000 yards.
Receiving touchdowns: 10
Poll
Rob Gronkowski: 10 receiving touchdowns
Over! If Gronkowski plays half the season, he should come close to the over. He’s the best red zone target in the league.
Total starts: 14.5
Poll
Rob Gronkowski: 14.5 games started
Over. We can wish, right?
WR Brandin Cooks
Receiving yards: 1,250
Poll
Brandin Cooks: 1,250 receiving yards
Under. I don’t know if any Patriots receiver will crack 1,100 yards, never mind 1,250 yards.
Receiving touchdowns: 7.5
Poll
Brandin Cooks: 7.5 receiving touchdowns
I’ll go with the over. He has hit the over in each of the past two years and I think he’ll have more opportunities in the Patriots offense in the red zone.
EDGE Trey Flowers
Sacks: 7
Poll
Trey Flowers: 7 sacks
I have to go with the over here. Flowers had 7 sacks in 2016 despite only starting half the season; his opportunities should increase.
CB Stephon Gilmore
Interceptions: 4.5
Poll
Stephon Gilmore: 4.5 interceptions
Gilmore recorded 5 interceptions in 2016, but that was the only time in his career he would’ve hit the over. I’m going with the under.