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Water Cooler Talk: Quarterback Edition - Part I

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NFL Draft: Pre-Combine Quarterback Review

The Patriot off season has begun and so the draft hype is free to begin in force. Since a lot of people are unfamiliar with the many draft candidates, I thought it would be worthwhile to author a brief primer on the first round picks, starting with quarterbacks. This won't go into too much depth but should give you enough information to form a picture of each quarterback and make you sound more knowledgeable than your average bear.

Quarterback (6)

There are six quarterbacks that could reasonably go in the 1st round this year. We will review three of them in this article.

Baker Mayfield

The Heisman winner and PFF darling, Baker Mayfield was a walk on at the Oklahoma before winning the starting position. He would go on to complete 70% of his passes, throw for 43 TD's against 6 picks, while rushing for 311 yards and 5 TD's.

Strengths:

Mayfield has no issue scrambling around to make plays when the pocket breaks down, throwing extremely well on the run, and is emblematic of the type of the Rodgers/Wilson mobile passer the league covets and viewers love to watch. The modern NFL QB needs to be able to run and throw and Mayfield delivers here in spades.

Mayfield plays with a destructive competitive edge and exhibits a lot of passion (sometimes too much) on the field. He's not the kind of guy who is going to break down when the going gets tough and that type of leadership is infectious to his teammates. This is the kid who left his first college to be a walk on at another school because the coach had the audacity to say he needed to compete for the starting position there. You could look at that negatively but I think having the balls to be a walk on shows a lot of guts and confidence.

He can make most of the NFL passes you need. He exhibits accuracy at all levels of the field which is an incredibly valuable skill to have. As I mentioned before, no one in this draft class is better throwing on the run than Mayfield. If you want a guy who has a high probability of replicating that Russel Wilson magic, Mayfield is your guy. Remember, just because a quarterback is mobile does not mean they are a good quarterback on the run. Lamar Jackson is a lethal running threat but he isn't a lethal passer on the run.

Weaknesses:

Despite winning an historic number of accolades Mayfield is not without warts. He was arrested for public intoxication and fleeing/resisting arrest (though no charges were filed) and was widely criticized for grabbing his genitals while mocking the opposing team during a game (the aforementioned passion). Still, given the current eras deification of college athletes, this type of behavior, while not ideal, will likely not be seen as remotely disqualifying by teams.

The larger concern for Mayfield is his lack of size and awkward throwing motion. He is listed at 6'1 but most reports indicated he is a short six feet. Though it can seem foolish in the age of Brees and Wilson, that height is likely to be seen as an black mark by a lot of NFL scouts especially considering Mayfield lack of mechanical polish. Despite relishing the mobile passing game Mayfield consistently fails to set his feet when he throws, has an awkward throwing mechanic, and not nearly the arm strength of any of the other leading candidates to make up for it. You can get away with this in college but in the NFL, and without a particularly powerful arm, this is going to get you into trouble.

Mayfield also benefited from a strong offensive line that did nothing to disabuse his tendency to hold out for the big play. In the NFL he is simply not going to have that kind of time and he is going to get sacked mercilessly if he cannot learn to accept the more expedient options available to him. He reads plays too slow. He goes through progressions too slow. Everything Mayfield does now he needs to do faster at the next level.

He has struggled with rush awareness, getting happy feet when he shouldn't or not bailing when he should. As a Chiefs fan haunted by memories of Alex Smith happy feet, you really hate seeing this. The one difference I'd note is that Mayfield is more likely to bail a clean pocket to make a throw, whereas Smith would bail to try and pick up a couple of yards with his legs.

Conclusion:

All in all Mayfield is a strong candidate who will almost assuredly not make it past the first five picks. My NFL comp is Russell Wilson but Wilson had a superior feel for the pocket coming out of college also benefited from a growing up in a pro system. My worry is that Mayfield fantastic college production might be inflated by his offensive line and an air raid system that made for easier throws. On the flip side it's really hard to hate a quarterback who throws so well on the run and can be accurate at all levels of the field

Sam Darnold

Darnold was seen as the most probable top pick of the 2018 draft after a tremendous freshman year. A less than incredible season has doused water on that certainty but many still project Donald as the QB most likely to go first overall. A GM picking Darnold is going to look at a lot of his raw traits and have confidence that his freshman year is far more indicative of his future potential.

Strengths:

Physically Darnold meets all the benchmarks of a franchise quarterback. He's 6'4, 220 pounds and can run the football. He has excellent arm strength and he just looks like a franchise quarterback. His youth is also an advantage. He will only be 21 in his first pro season. This will give a lot of GM's confidence that he still has the time to be sculpted into the quarterback they desire him to be.

Darnold has the arm talent to make any throw you need and gives you a tight spiral doing it. He's accurate at all levels and has a solid sense for the rush. For someone like me that values pocket awareness and accuracy above most other traits, it's extremely positive to see both present in Darnold.

Darnold also has a lot of the skills used to describe "pro ready" quarterbacks. He quickly runs through progressions, is seemingly impervious to the blitz, and has already proven capable of looking off safeties with his eyes. Darnold also doesn't have any of the off the field concerns of some of the other candidates and is known for being a positive force in the locker room. If he's a bust it won't be because he's secretly an alcoholic, criminal or hates working hard at football.

Weaknesses:

So what is the knock? Well for one he threw a hell of a lot of interceptions in 2017. You can't do that in the NFL and hope to survive for long. The interceptions speak to a lack of on the field vision and decision making. If Darnold falls this will probably be the reason. Nothing in the NFL correlates with losing more than turnover worthy plays.

Darnold has been compared to Luck, and given the latter health concerns, Darnold unwillingness to slide and force the extra few yards on the run should be concerning.

Despite a very strong freshman year, his sophomore year was a mixed bag. He played at a very high level against good competition in some games and also graded out as one of the worst college quarterbacks by PFF in others. While the terrible games were admittedly linked together, three games in a row in the middle of the season, it gives a glimpse of a potentially high variable quarterback. That guy could win you a championship on a steaming hot post season run or he could collapse in a playoff round and destroy what would have been a very good chance at the a ring. I think Darnold freshman year, the closing grouping of the bad games, and his relative youth will get him a pass on this however.

Darnold also has an elongated release that will undoubtedly knock him down a peg or two with scouts but his youth will probably serve him well year. Personally, I don't see throwing motion fixed that often so I think the kid is going to be stuck with it. But I also don't see "awkward" throwing motions as being this massive impediment that some people make it out to be. Rivers and Rodgers both had "bad" throwing motions and have done damn fine in the NFL.

Conclusion:

I think Darnold is the best combination of physical traits, intangibles, and proven talent. He has to become a better decision maker and expand his vision or his NFL career will be short lived. But if you believe he can fix those things than he's probably the top QB pick in the draft.

Josh Allen

The candidate with the best arm in all of college football and is a soxpatscelitcs darling. Josh Allen reminds me a lot of Christian Hackenberg if Christian Hackenberg had any actual talent. That comparison and the lack of collegiate production compared to other candidates is the reason Josh Allen is likely to fall. If he doesn't it will be because a GM falls in love with what they can mold the clay into, not the current form it resides in.

Strengths:

Arm talent for days. There are guys that make most of the throws you need to be successful in the NFL and then there are guys who make the throws no one else can make. Josh Allen can make those throws. Throws a good spiral and can rocket the ball into tight windows. Can throw on the run, not well, but he can. There is no play you don't call because, "he can't do that".

Allen also has a massive cannon, which when combined with his arm talent, can be pretty useful. As I write this I am remembering a play by Patrick Mahomes where he was scrambling, in the midst of being sacked, and just fired the ball twenty yards for a completion. It's not just the ability to make effortless deep throws in a clean pocket that makes having a bazooka for an arm useful. It's the ability to make big throws in less than ideal circumstances. It also helps compensate for bad throwing motion and poor footwork.

Allen is productive in cold and less than ideal weather. That might seem silly but that skill should not be undervalued. Anyone who has seen Derek Carr try to play in the cold will tell you that. All the production in the world doesn't mean much if your quarterback falls apart any time he travels to a stadium where the weather is below freezing.

Like Darnold he meets all the physical benchmarks, 6'5, 235 pounds, and the athleticism to run the football and pick up yards.

Weaknesses:

He is not accurate. Period. That has to be super concerning flaw if you are drafting a quarterback and that is a huge black mark in my book. You can flash all you want, you can make all the big throws you want, if I can't see you consistently throwing the football to where it needs to be I am not going to draft you. It also makes him a bad fit for New England which is why I hope we stay away from him even if he does fall. This is also the reason I just don't see him having a good career in the NFL. I just can't think of any QB's this inaccurate who came into the NFL and were able to develop the accuracy to be consistently successful. This is one of the reason I call him a poor mans Patrick Mahomes.

Like most quarterbacks with that much arm talent and strength he is overconfident with his throws and makes bad decisions. This bothers me less than it does with Arnold, one because it's not nearly as bad, and two, because it's the trademark of all quarterbacks with great arms. It's a black mark but it is a fixable one. He also has bad footwork, but again, you don't necessarily need that when you have as much arm talent as he does.

Allen is a great passer but he's not a great passer on the run. I am not saying he cannot do it but he isn't that good at it. This is a second reason I have him down as a poor mans Patrick Mahomes because I saw more from him in that area.

The final mark on Allen is less than ideal pocket awareness, which is a problem magnified by less than ideal football smarts.

Conclusion:

I have had friends say he is an even more talented Patrick Mahomes but I think they are dead wrong. Allen may have a better arm than Mahomes but his lack of accuracy, success under pressure, and ability to throw on the run make him a markedly inferior candidate. Allen is boom or bust. If he improves his accuracy and can learn to be a smarter football player than he will be a franchise quarterback. I think he could fix the latter but the former will be well out of his reach.

Summary

There is a lot of off season left to go. And anything can happen. A strong combine, or a weak one, by any of these candidates could cause them to drop or skyrocket. I'm interested in what other people think, I am fairly down on Allen which I am sure will cause indignation in some, so feel free to post comments or criticisms. I will be posting Part II this weekend detailing my thoughts on Jackson, Rosen and Rudolph.

The views expressed in these FanPosts are not necessarily those of the writers or SB Nation.