The New York Jets traded away the farm, castle, and kitchen sink to the Indianapolis Colts in order to move up from the sixth overall pick to third overall. New York shipped the 37th and 49th overall picks, along with a 2019 second round pick.
According to my draft value chart, the Jets effectively paid a premium equal to a mid-first round pick to make the move before they even know which players will be on the board.
If there are three quarterbacks that the Jets like equally, then sure, that’s fine. If the Jets look at Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Baker Mayfield as equals, then they just just secured their franchise quarterback. The premium paid doesn’t matter if they get their franchise quarterback, and the values of picks at the top of the draft are mere suggestions if generational talent is on the board.
But this isn’t the reason the Jets are giving to justify the trade. Their explanation is really, really dumb.
#Jets coach Todd Bowles, at the annual coaches breakfast, said they traded up to No. 3 not with one player in mind but with 6-7 they believe they’ll have a chance at. Will zero in in a few weeks.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 27, 2018
Jets head coach Todd Bowles says that the Jets have six or seven players that are considering with their pick.
That means that the Jets have six or seven players that they consider to be roughly equal.
The Jets were originally going to pick sixth, where they would have had the opportunity to draft one of those six or seven players.
Good teams know what talent is worth and they don’t overpay. If there are six or seven players that are roughly the same, then sit and wait and take one of them and don’t give up a first round pick for no good reason.
I have a hunch the Jets are not telling the full truth here because their explanation is terrible, awful, no good, and very bad. They want one of the quarterbacks. They don’t want teams to know they’re definitely taking one of the quarterbacks in case a team makes a deal with the Cleveland Browns or New York Giants to leapfrog the Jets.
There is a right reason for the Jets to trade up from sixth to third, even without knowing the players on the board (and my expectation is that they have three quarterbacks equally graded). Simply put, trading up from sixth overall because you’re targeting six or seven players is one of the worst reasons.